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Post by aaplsauce on Apr 28, 2022 22:08:24 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 29, 2022 2:37:02 GMT -8
As of January 2, 2019, 4,729,803,000 shares of Apple’s common stock were issued and outstanding. HEREAs of January 2, 2020, 4,384,027,000 shares of Apple’s common stock were issued and outstanding. HERE345,776,000 Reduction year over year. 4,375,480,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of January 17, 2020. 8,547,000 REDUCTION From January 2nd to January 17th. As always, PLEASE CHECK MY MATH. 4,334,335,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of April 17, 2020.41,145,000 REDUCTION From January 17th to April 17th. 4,275,634,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of July 17, 2020. 58,701,000 REDUCTION From April 17th to July 17th. 17,001,802,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 16, 2020. DIVIDED BY 4 = 4,250,450,500 25,183,500 REDUCTION from August to October 16th,2020 16,788,096,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of January 15, 2021. 213,706,000 REDUCTION from October to January 15th, 2020 16,788,096,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of January 15, 2021. 16,185,181,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of April 15, 2022.602,915,000 REDUCTION from January 15, 2021 to April 15, 2022.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 29, 2022 2:48:12 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 29, 2022 2:57:35 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 29, 2022 5:34:57 GMT -8
NEON: The current geopolitical climate, with what is going on between Russia and Ukraine, has brought to light the potential issue of sourcing semiconductor-grade neon gas. Ukraine supplies about 50% of the world’s semiconductor grade neon gas and 90% of the neon gas used in the United States. Neon, krypton, argon, xenon, and other noble gases are used to power excimer lasers in the lithography process. These lasers can create patterns in wafers down to 193 nanometers, so we expect neon-gas supply issues to only accelerate the adoption of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines since they do not require any noble gases to etch patterns onto wafers. - From CFRA’s “Chip Equipment Beneficiaries from Continued Adoption of EUV,” a CFRA thematic research piece, published on MarketScope Advisor on April 5, 2022. research.ameritrade.com/wwws/common/reports/report.asp?YYY600_lzzTHhDYPw3+06LNp1dttO3NrOaJc66x0FX4m6NB4fDZTNSnVrYImapEbf9BKFZx+sxtfv1A+qtEJyN4NLonYpUvtD6CDYbBva4a0QPSUiMPZt0hJY9aZQyPrOVTJInPmrjUCTNTBO4C1Rshd1Hnv7g5DPJSUkLJ&a=aNeon is produced from air in cryogenic air-separation plants. A gas-phase mixture mainly of nitrogen, neon, and helium is withdrawn from the main condenser at the top of the high-pressure air-separation column and fed to the bottom of a side column for rectification of the neon. It can then be further purified from helium. About 70% of global neon supply is produced in Ukraine as a by-product of steel production in Russia. As of 2020, the company Iceblick, with plants in Odessa and Moscow, supplies 65 per cent of the world's production of neon, as well as 15% of the krypton and xenon. 2022 shortage Global neon prices jumped by about 600% after the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, spurring some chip manufacturers to start shifting away from Russian and Ukrainian suppliers and toward suppliers in China. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine also shut down two companies in Ukraine: LLC «Cryoin engineering» (Russian: Криоин Инжиниринг) and LLC «Ingaz» (Russian: Ингаз) located in Odessa and Mariupol respectively; that produced about half of the global supply. The closure was predicted to likely exacerbate COVID-19 chip shortage, which may further shift neon production to China. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 29, 2022 6:23:07 GMT -8
I thought the story I read about a month ago on Neon said that places that needed it generally had a multi-year supply already. So it could be an issue, but shouldn't be an issue in the short or medium term.
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Post by kpas1 on Apr 29, 2022 7:44:16 GMT -8
More options talk, for active-trader types:
Last week I posted that I was targeting the 165-170 range for today's expiration with a weekly short strangle (part of a double diagonal). Yesterday that seemed like a long shot, so I rolled out and down a notch, to next week's 162.5-167.5. Overnight that position gained a ton, due to the usual post-earnings IV crush. But all is not calm with AAPL nor the broader market, so there is still a lot of premium left in next week's options. So back to the usual theta burn on the weeklies, adjusting when necessary to aim for the "sweet spot." As I posted awhile back, this usually works out if you have the attention span to manage your risk.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 29, 2022 8:19:29 GMT -8
From my weekly TA perspective, we are riding the knife's edge at this point. Would like to see us close above 162, but definitely above 160, or this long successful weekly channel pivot lower bound will be in danger of collapse. But if we can manage a conclusive close above it, we should see a bounce in the coming couple of weeks.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 29, 2022 9:58:47 GMT -8
This is an interesting word, "humility." Maybe the connotation is a little lost in the Romanian or Finnish translation. I've always thought supreme confidence can be a superpower, but of course arrogance is what gets you in trouble. But I don't like the timid connotation of the word "humility." I want Apple to be insanely great, not "we suck and will do better." I don't think anyone would call Steve "humble." And I don't think Tim hires mediocre people. As Steve said, A people want to be with A people, and the simple truth is you don't become the best brand on earth tolerating midwits. You have to ruthlessly hire the best and improve or weed out the pretty good. That leads to an esprit de corps in a group, and they think they can do anything. I want Apple to be confident that they hire the best people, with the highest standards, and believe they are the best brand on earth. But that is a pretty elitist, not humble principle.
Now, arrogance is where you get into trouble. This is the Microsoft of 1999 problem. "We dominate and simply cannot lose." When the Bozo Ballmer sales divisions ran the company and ignored engineers and designers. Or the music industry saying, "why would we give up this wildly popular CD business?" Or Sony saying, why would we ever want to license our music to run digitally on a hardware device?
When I look at the greatest disruptors, I see people with vision and the supreme confidence to effect that vision on the world.
I recently read a Gordon Moore biography, and Moore's Law is so misunderstood. It wasn't about transistors doubling in speed or density every two years (that was a long, but temporary output of that vision). Moore's genius was looking into the future and saying, "this $200 transistor that only the Military-Industrial Complex of the Cold War can afford to put in nuclear ICBM's, will shrink and be discounted at such magnitudes as to make it the most ubiquitous man-made object in the history of the world. And I'm going to be the guy that makes and sells them at that scale." Apple is a company based on disruption and that, hopefully, remains in its culture. I have to assume it is, at least with Tim (I can't speak to the entire company culture). Hopefully, Apple's culture is: Disruption is inevitably coming, and we know it, and we will 1) cause it in an insanely great way and 2) adapt to it as a fast follower, but in an insanely better way.
I just don't see how "sorry we suck so bad, we'll get better" is an aspirational value, let alone good branding. I also don't get Horace's micromobility obsession. I don't think very many Americans want to trade in their cars for bikes and look like a Third World country riding scooters around major cities in flip flops. And I say this as a guy with a pedal-assisted e-mountain bike. I think pedal-assist ebikes are great to get some people out of the house and doing some degree of exercise. But we like our cars so we can travel around like first world bosses, not peasants. I don't even think people give a damn about EV cars on a significant scale. But giving up their cars for ebikes? Not in my 'Merica!
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Post by duckpins on Apr 29, 2022 11:08:14 GMT -8
If we sink into the close the DOW could record is 3rd worst top 20 point declines in history in the last few weeks. Chinese market is up 2 days in a row. Could it be the 90% decline in many stocks is enough? AMZN sliced through a potential triple bottom and is still above its Covid Crash low. There must be tons of cash on the sidelines now. But looks like tons more are leaving the market. At this point one wonders how close we get to the Covid crash lows? Apple almost stopped the bleeding but anything slightly negative is worthy of a melt down. Meanwhile Netflix is down another 3+%. 700 to 193. At least we have Ozark. Could not believe Nacho got killed off.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 29, 2022 11:16:00 GMT -8
You must be a gas at parties, duckpins.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 29, 2022 12:05:36 GMT -8
Just pointing out the facts. 3 of the worst 20 days were in the last 8 trading days.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 29, 2022 12:58:29 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 29, 2022 15:22:35 GMT -8
Wow, quite a day. At least the drop wasn't very AAPL specific. Just about everything got hammered, though Tesla barely made it into the red, and AMZN just wasn't very amazing today.
Sometimes it's nice to just get away from things for a bit. I was off painting the house that's being fixed up, and yes even sitting around "watching the paint dry".
Theoretically speaking, a stock sold, and thus also bought, shouldn't affect "money sitting on the sidelines". If a share sold for $50, then one person put that in and one person took that out. Maybe there was a tax bill. It's only when there is a change in asset types, whether someone taking money out of a fund, or switching over to bonds, or a mortgage, that there would be a change.
There is the risk on/risk off of lowering the amount one is borrowing in order to invest, and that can make a big difference. But is that happening on a day like today? Or is it just some AI somewhere, getting spooked, after possibly helping mark things up across the board yesterday.
It's interesting thinking about a product from a company, and how the distribution of earnings affect things. One way is to stay virtually constant, with a slow and steady step up. Maybe this is your consumer stables, the slow and steady. But then you take something like the iPod, and let's say there was $500B of profit across 15 years. How would the underlying stop vary if the profit was evenly distributed, vs its scaled up. To maximize the stock price, maybe 40% of it would be in the 2nd to last Q, and 55% in the last Q...and then everything falls off a cliff.
Just some thoughts.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 29, 2022 17:18:18 GMT -8
Did anyone read the story from Wall Street Journal that came up on Apple News +, titled "Apple Suppliers Given Priority for Factory Restarts in Shanghai Region"? Sounds positive. The video in this one talks about the same offer for Tesla, if employees stay on site. Not everyone wants to, and then they still have the problem of getting enough parts. www.cnn.com/2022/04/29/tech/apple-china-smartphone-sales-intl-hnk/index.html
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 29, 2022 19:18:31 GMT -8
Any person fully invested in AAPL for any length of time had to have long ago adjusted to the fact that AAPL's share price will sometimes increase, sometimes decrease...and sometimes go sideways. Over the years AAPL investors have seen massive appreciation of their investment...but sometimes it's easy to lose track of where we are, investment wise. I don't track AAPL by what it's done YTD or by calendar year...I choose to track it in relation to my retirement date, 05/19/08 and the yearly anniversary. And even at Tuesday's close of $156.80, AAPL was still up 26% since 05/19/21...and if AAPL actually dropped to $140, as some misguided folks have projected, AAPL Longs would still be up 12% since 05/19/21.
Are some AAPL Longs in a slight panic about the possibility of a drop in share price after earnings today? I can't speak for other AAPL Longs, but, personally, I'm hoping the share price stays down for the next few weeks until AAPL dividends are paid in mid-May. The AAPL dividends which were auto-reinvested in February of this year, purchased shares at $171.98. If my wife and I could pick up new shares of AAPL with our dividends in the $140's or $150's, that would be awesome. But if AAPL rises to $200/share by May dividends, I'd be fine with that as well. 😎 So, AAPL closed at $157.65 today, down -$5.99 for the day...harsh. But AFB AAPL Longs should keep in mind that, even though we're down -13.4 YTD, we're up 26% from 05/19/21. That's +26% in 3 weeks short of a year. Some jaded souls may be underwhelmed with that return...and I remember that the AAPL share price increased 59% between 05/29/20 and 05/19/21...but I'd take a +26% return every year and be very pleased.
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