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Post by aaplsauce on May 1, 2022 22:22:06 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 2, 2022 1:41:23 GMT -8
With reference to the story above “ Evercore takes a deep dive into Apple FinTech”, I was on my PayPal account last week and saw that PayPal now has a digital wallet that allows you to trade in cryptocurrency. Maybe this is something that Apple may be headed towards. Edit: The PayPal link that was above would work on my iPad but strangely would not work on my iPhone. But here is a better story about that subject. Pay With Crypto Using PayPal: Here's How
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 2, 2022 1:56:08 GMT -8
The link to the 9to5 Mac story above needs to be read by everyone and to consider where this road will inevitably lead to. It’s all about the money and the control. It will not be good.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
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Post by Ted on May 2, 2022 6:54:47 GMT -8
The link to the 9to5 Mac story above needs to be read by everyone and to consider where this road will inevitably lead to. It’s all about the money and the control. It will not be good. Your link leads to a PayPal sign in screen fyi.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 2, 2022 7:53:33 GMT -8
Quick takes:
Regulation is an existential threat. Why is our government allowing the EU to dictate to our companies? Apple must grow, but in every direction it tries to expand, it encounters anti-trust bozos.
WRT Johnny Ive, I have zero respect for the NY Times or that Tripp Mickle doad, but whatever contacts he has at Apple are almost certainly better than what we have.
Having just re-read Becoming Steve Jobs, I was struck by the fact that Jony was so much more than a design guy at Apple. He said Steve was his best and most trusted friend, and they both spoke the same intuitive language about design. Obviously, Jony doesn't have that kind of relationship with Tim, regardless of the veracity of that silly tree anecdote (LOL-ing at grown men crying over a few trees). The simple fact is, Jony wouldn't have left if he were happy at Apple. This has concerned me long before this article came out.
So, basically all the main people who brought iPhone to market, Steve, Scott Forstall, Tony Fadell, Jony Ive, are all gone from Apple. Steve wanted people as smart or smarter than him around, and welcomed dissent. One wonders if Tim wants yes-men around. Or at least not confrontational alphas. Steve liked to pit people against each other because he thought competition and ruthless standards brought out the best in people. Some want to make this out to be some dark triad personality thing, but the idea of stack ranking teams is pretty widespread. Steve had his top-100 people while at Apple. I think it escapes most people what it takes to be at a top level at a wildly successful company (it isn't always pretty).
Clearly, Tim has a much different leadership style than Steve. Steve hated the bureaucratic hierarchy the way Tim hates inventory. And Tim seems to detest the confrontational model that Steve encouraged. Steve really did think different[ly] about corporate governance. Maybe Tim seeing Steve die made him realize that as awesome as Steve was as a leader, he is impossible to duplicate, and a cult of personality is dangerous to a company in terms of succession, so Tim wanted to revert to a more conventional governance model. Obviously Jony would bristle at that, since he used to have unlimited access to the CEO's and his power (and the influence of design in general at Apple) has waned. Now it could be that Apple is about committee meeting bloat and services and tedious iteration that exasperated Jony (we have to honestly account for the fact that Jony left, without reflexively defending Apple).
Where is the next insanely great product?
This Mickle book presents that circular paradox: How can we comment on something we haven't read, but why should we encourage bad journalism or anti-Apple publicity? Decisions decisions.
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Post by aaplsauce on May 2, 2022 8:08:24 GMT -8
Hi Ted, After reading your post, I checked all links I posted in the opener & all links work for me as intended.
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 2, 2022 8:10:53 GMT -8
Hi Ted, After reading your post, I checked all links I posted in the opener & all links work for me as intended. I think it was in reference to Dave's link to Paypal.
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Post by aaplsauce on May 2, 2022 8:19:47 GMT -8
Thanks, cdnphoto. That makes sense. I'll return to my nap...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2022 8:38:36 GMT -8
The link to the 9to5 Mac story above needs to be read by everyone and to consider where this road will inevitably lead to. It’s all about the money and the control. It will not be good. New technologies often skirt around current rules, and are small enough at first to not matter. But at some point people have to decide if the current rules are still good, and if they should apply to everything in that area. "Bank runs" due to Money Market funds not following by the same rules or having the same protections as bank accounts is one of these things, where at first it was inconsequential, and then it contributed to the 2008 Great Recession. See the book Money. aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/3362/money-true-story-thingAnd that is a big question on self driving cars. What happens if it breaks a rule. Who gets the ticket, if it's transporting only a 10 year old in the backseat. It should be rules based, but it turns out Tesla has multiple settings, starting at something that follows the rules, and working up to being aggressive. And that includes speed, so instead of being the likes of kid taking his driver's test where speeding flunks him, it can be closer to that of a 22 year old in a sports car. So does the person who choose what setting to use get the ticket? It's not outlandish to think that streaming services, that have now taken over a good portion of TV useage, should follow by the same rules as broadcast or cable TV. Or similar ones. The only real worrisome part was when the UK talked of needing to do things to make sure that their UK shows continued. That wasn't the main point of the article. But maybe it's like our lawmakers in the US, trying to slip something into what gets passed.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 2, 2022 8:58:09 GMT -8
The link to the 9to5 Mac story above needs to be read by everyone and to consider where this road will inevitably lead to. It’s all about the money and the control. It will not be good. Your link leads to a PayPal sign in screen fyi. Thanks, I changed the link to something more meaningful.
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Post by dmiller on May 2, 2022 9:12:49 GMT -8
I have some thoughts on the Jony Ive things, having lived and invested through all of Apple's renaissance.
In my opinion, Ive jumped the shark near the end of his official tenure and to me, it's not a huge disappointment that he moved on. His best work at Apple was in tandem with Steve, who both collaborated with him (as the "chief taste tester") and also would have constrained him. (With Steve gone, the constraints vanished).
(also don't forget: he's been out for years now, and where have Apple and AAPL gone during those years? UP. Way UP).
The initial positioning of the Apple Watch is on Ive. We had an initial positioning as a fashion, and timepiece aficionado, accessory. The ads luxuriating in the intricacies of the initial faces. Guess what: few people are watch aficionados, certainly nothing that defines a mass market at Apple's scale. I've worn the Watch since the first version and I find myself sticking to one face which is all digital info, because it simply works the best. The faces looking like fancy watches are interesting and amusing but not what I want to see on my wrist every day. This approach was doomed to fail but obviously this was all Ive. (What would Steve had said, would easily be the next question). Then there was the Gold edition at a ridiculous 5 figure price, fora very slow and non-lasting first version tech that couldn't even be serviced or have its battery replaced. All the ads that touted the design and the FACES in luxurious detail, as if that’s what people would care about. Consumers wanted speed, functionality, fitness, and other features. Also some of the early “features” were a big miss, and the entire UI ended up being revamped. The software functionality wasn’t Ive’s fault, but the obsession with the “Watch aficionado’s exotic details” completely missed what the typical user cares about. The Apple Watch as a product should never have been positioned as a “fashion accessory“. Apple Watch as a crazily overpriced, too-slow and overly hyped fashion accessory was doing poorly at the start. The Watch as it exists today is the right mix. You still have fashion, but not overly so. You have a wide range of functionality and fitness and health functions are the primary movers.
Then there was longstanding thinness obsession issue with the laptop keyboards and design, which never should have happened and which did a certain amount of damage to the brand. The keyboards obviously -never had to be that thin- since the recent replacements, which are excellent, in still-thin M1 laptop chassis prove that categorically.
“Today, Apple boasts a market value of $2.57 trillion and a lineup of legacy products that have helped it preserve its perch as America’s largest public company.” Legacy products? What nonsense. The “legacy products” as they put it are by far the best products the company has ever sold, from both a design and performance standpoint, and they remain better than other “competitive” products in the world. No more revolutionary devices for this legacy company. I see. Maybe only phones matter, but not computers. When does “legacy” start? After Jobs’ death? Think of the revolutionary technologies Apple has introduced since then. 64-bit mobile processors. FaceID. Deep learning processor on the phones. More mobile power than any other company and increasing yearly. Apple Watch health sensors and increasing speed and functionality every year. M1 chip and seamless transition and leaving Intel in the dust.
Then there's scoffing at TV shows, which is fairly ridiculous. AppleTV+ strategy is gradually turning into the winning one. Build up a catalog of high quality self produced show, with newly commissioned shows, as well as features, to increase "quantity" over time.
Services are a necessary ingredient for growth of the company, including financial services along with bundling of iCloud, News, TV, etc. and just because they're not sexy, revolutionary hardware doesn't make them unimportant.
There's still time for revolutionary products that we haven't seen yet. There are hardware constraints (and now, supply chain constraints on current and up-next hardware). Products can't outpace the hardware engines that drive them. Let's take a couple of excellent historical examples. iPhone, first version, shipped with hardware that was revolutionary and also, just -barely- able to power the device properly. There were constraints on speed (network and processor) and capacity; it barely had a camera; but it was a functional revolutionary device that was beyond anything shown to that date. Technology dropped into 2007 from the future. Magic. Pinch to zoom, all the result of the Fingerworks acquisition years ago. In hindsight, the original iPhone could not have shipped earlier. The timing was perfect. "Just enough" to get started.
Apple Watch: arguably shipped too early, since the initial version was underpowered; Version 3 would logically, in hindsight, have been the first version, but there was some pressure, including a well-known "anal-yst" who insisted at the time that if Apple didn't ship a watch "today" they were done for.
Upcoming revolutionary potential products: glasses (VR? AR? Both?) which are dependent on tiny hardware, display technology, refresh rates, tethering with an iPhone? Obviously not ready to ship from a hardware standpoint, it has to be done "right" at the start. (See Google Glasses' failure). Apple Car? Who knows. What else? Who knows.
In the meantime, current products keep getting better and faster in ways that the competition can't keep up with.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 2, 2022 10:45:47 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on May 2, 2022 11:09:12 GMT -8
Every time one pays by crypto it is a capital gain or loss. If you accept payment and then convert to cash-same. This will make tax accounts very busy in the near future.
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Post by duckpins on May 2, 2022 11:11:43 GMT -8
Wow. Do we have turnaround tuesday a day early? Sentiment can't get much worse. we are due for a rally either countertrend or a new bull market.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 2, 2022 11:36:46 GMT -8
Every time one pays by crypto it is a capital gain or loss. If you accept payment and then convert to cash-same. This will make tax accounts very busy in the near future. Yep, Bitcoin was intended as a USD competitor, and the Treasury Department treated it as such. So it's neither crypto (public blockchain) nor a currency (treated by IRS as property, not money). As if Bitcoin isn't hard enough to use, imagine keeping track of loss and gains every time you try to use it. A great example of how the fourth branch of government, the administrative state, has slowly been cornering investors without a single vote by citizens or their representatives in this supposed republic. It's always "for the children" or terrorism and money laundering. It started with the $10,000 reporting under the Patriot Act (which the Biden Admin wanted to drop to $500), also IRS rules about your broker 1099-ing you. I still can't believe investors allowed that one. The supposedly freest county allowed their banks and brokers to become informants on them, without so much as a whimper.
The regs are so bad now, most foreign banks won't even let Americans open accounts. Not worth the hassle (which is the entire point, like the Bitcoin regs). This whole thing with banning Russia from SWIFT was scary. In Soviet Union, due process comes for YOU (in Yakov Smirnoff accent). What a country!
Eventually I'm just going to move to Puerto Rico to give them all the
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on May 2, 2022 12:33:57 GMT -8
Every time one pays by crypto it is a capital gain or loss. If you accept payment and then convert to cash-same. This will make tax accounts very busy in the near future. Yep, Bitcoin was intended as a USD competitor, and the Treasury Department treated it as such. So it's neither crypto (public blockchain) nor a currency (treated by IRS as property, not money). As if Bitcoin isn't hard enough to use, imagine keeping track of loss and gains every time you try to use it. A great example of how the fourth branch of government, the administrative state, has slowly been cornering investors without a single vote by citizens or their representatives in this supposed republic. It's always "for the children" or terrorism and money laundering. It started with the $10,000 reporting under the Patriot Act (which the Biden Admin wanted to drop to $500), also IRS rules about your broker 1099-ing you. I still can't believe investors allowed that one. The supposedly freest county allowed their banks and brokers to become informants on them, without so much as a whimper.
The regs are so bad now, most foreign banks won't even let Americans open accounts. Not worth the hassle (which is the entire point, like the Bitcoin regs). This whole thing with banning Russia from SWIFT was scary. In Soviet Union, due process comes for YOU (in Yakov Smirnoff accent). What a country!
Eventually I'm just going to move to Puerto Rico to give them all the Better yet Belize
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2022 12:48:43 GMT -8
Every time one pays by crypto it is a capital gain or loss. If you accept payment and then convert to cash-same. This will make tax accounts very busy in the near future. Yep, Bitcoin was intended as a USD competitor, and the Treasury Department treated it as such. So it's neither crypto (public blockchain) nor a currency (treated by IRS as property, not money). As if Bitcoin isn't hard enough to use, imagine keeping track of loss and gains every time you try to use it. A great example of how the fourth branch of government, the administrative state, has slowly been cornering investors without a single vote by citizens or their representatives in this supposed republic. It's always "for the children" or terrorism and money laundering. It started with the $10,000 reporting under the Patriot Act (which the Biden Admin wanted to drop to $500), also IRS rules about your broker 1099-ing you. I still can't believe investors allowed that one. The supposedly freest county allowed their banks and brokers to become informants on them, without so much as a whimper.
The regs are so bad now, most foreign banks won't even let Americans open accounts. Not worth the hassle (which is the entire point, like the Bitcoin regs). This whole thing with banning Russia from SWIFT was scary. In Soviet Union, due process comes for YOU (in Yakov Smirnoff accent). What a country!
Eventually I'm just going to move to Puerto Rico to give them all the I'd imagine that the bitcoin broker could submit to the user a schedule at the end of the year, and that the sum total price and basis would be enough. That's what some investors had in the past, including day traders. Talk about potentially messy returns. While it is a change, if doing everything on the up and up, having full basis info calculated for the 1099's made things a lot easier. I think I had one form this year with "this basis wasn't reported to the IRS", maybe on an old ESPP from 10-12 years ago, with the extra complexity of a split to shares and cash ~6 years ago. But it gave me the basis, so I just had to type it in. On the one hand I don't feel that the government needs to have the full details, but on the other hand I'd rather that everyone paid taxes if they are owed (and some other preferences, but that would get off-topic), and so I would prefer everything got properly accounted for instead of some deals, mostly cash, going under the radar. The IRS has rules for all of that, just like they do on paying taxes for things that are bartered. The question is how many people follow them. And what is reasonable. The person selling pomegranates on a side street in Santa Cruz from their one tree is one thing. A person with a drywall texturing business is likely another. But with just blanket rules, without a reasonable safe harbor rule, it's up to the individual to decide what is ok, even if it differs from what the IRS would decide if they were to be audited.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on May 2, 2022 12:52:21 GMT -8
At some point the Treasury, State and IRS Departments have to put a stop to this EU nonsense and protect American Enterprises from this larceny. We are not going to like the end results of EU Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager? WTH is 10% of an American company’s revenue doing in the coffers of the EU? appleinsider.com/articles/22/05/02/eu-accuses-apple-of-breaking-antitrust-laws-with-apple-paySickening Someone in our Administration needs to wake the hell up! I can use Mastercard and Visa anywhere in the world, i cannot do the same with Discover or American Express, not even at Costco, pfft
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2022 12:59:12 GMT -8
Eventually I'm just going to move to Puerto Rico to give them all the Better yet Belize Puerto Rico has a special tax incentive, which this article makes sound even better. www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2022/01/10/puerto-rico-tax-haven-is-alluring-but-are-there-tax-risks/In past articles I read, they said you still had to pay normal capital gains on the portion of gains made before moving. So while there was a great incentive for a person with a business to move, one with capital gains wasn't as tempting. But this article says the capital gains to the US would only be 5% for the portion of gains made before moving, and if sold within 10 years of moving. From a "but I don't want to pay a huge huge tax bill" it is tempting. But there are of course issues. A person in town who was thinking of moving his family decided not to, since while his wife (she might have been from there) and kids could blend in, his complexion wouldn't blend. It's good to know your options, even if it is not something you end up being interested in. There are times that I think of just buying a little beach hut somewhere, with or without any tax incentives. Thanks AAPL!
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on May 2, 2022 13:09:11 GMT -8
Puerto Rico has a special tax incentive, which this article makes sound even better. www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2022/01/10/puerto-rico-tax-haven-is-alluring-but-are-there-tax-risks/In past articles I read, they said you still had to pay normal capital gains on the portion of gains made before moving. So while there was a great incentive for a person with a business to move, one with capital gains wasn't as tempting. But this article says the capital gains to the US would only be 5% for the portion of gains made before moving, and if sold within 10 years of moving. From a "but I don't want to pay a huge huge tax bill" it is tempting. But there are of course issues. A person in town who was thinking of moving his family decided not to, since while his wife (she might have been from there) and kids could blend in, his complexion wouldn't blend. It's good to know your options, even if it is not something you end up being interested in. There are times that I think of just buying a little beach hut somewhere, with or without any tax incentives. Thanks AAPL! Agreed, no safe harbor in any port…
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2022 13:22:51 GMT -8
Quite a price move there in the last hour, and volume above average!
We didn't manage to match the S&P or Nasdaq today, but my guess is the big funds or algos are making some plays. These are the times they can make some money while scaring others, when volatility is higher and there are still many big unknowns and wall of worry items.
Nice to see AAPL move up. Even if it didn't quite hold the $155 line from 2 dips ago, it didn't approach the $150.xx level. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't. With longer holding periods, it doesn't matter much.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 325
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Post by crispin on May 2, 2022 15:14:35 GMT -8
Yep, Bitcoin was intended as a USD competitor, and the Treasury Department treated it as such. So it's neither crypto (public blockchain) nor a currency (treated by IRS as property, not money). As if Bitcoin isn't hard enough to use, imagine keeping track of loss and gains every time you try to use it. A great example of how the fourth branch of government, the administrative state, has slowly been cornering investors without a single vote by citizens or their representatives in this supposed republic. It's always "for the children" or terrorism and money laundering. It started with the $10,000 reporting under the Patriot Act (which the Biden Admin wanted to drop to $500), also IRS rules about your broker 1099-ing you. I still can't believe investors allowed that one. The supposedly freest county allowed their banks and brokers to become informants on them, without so much as a whimper.
The regs are so bad now, most foreign banks won't even let Americans open accounts. Not worth the hassle (which is the entire point, like the Bitcoin regs). This whole thing with banning Russia from SWIFT was scary. In Soviet Union, due process comes for YOU (in Yakov Smirnoff accent). What a country!
Eventually I'm just going to move to Puerto Rico to give them all the Better yet Belize It worked out well for John McAfee. Caye Caulker used to be my dream hideaway for easy escapes from NYC. But between the burgeoning alcoholic expat scene and the rampant overdevelopment it lost a lot of appeal over the years. The last time I visited a few years ago it was barely recognizable.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 2, 2022 16:07:40 GMT -8
Puerto Rico has a special tax incentive, which this article makes sound even better. www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2022/01/10/puerto-rico-tax-haven-is-alluring-but-are-there-tax-risks/In past articles I read, they said you still had to pay normal capital gains on the portion of gains made before moving. So while there was a great incentive for a person with a business to move, one with capital gains wasn't as tempting. But this article says the capital gains to the US would only be 5% for the portion of gains made before moving, and if sold within 10 years of moving. From a "but I don't want to pay a huge huge tax bill" it is tempting. But there are of course issues. A person in town who was thinking of moving his family decided not to, since while his wife (she might have been from there) and kids could blend in, his complexion wouldn't blend. It's good to know your options, even if it is not something you end up being interested in. There are times that I think of just buying a little beach hut somewhere, with or without any tax incentives. Thanks AAPL! I've been trading a lot lately - mostly selling puts and calls - racking up the short term cap gains. At least I was until Generals' Earnings/Losings Week.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 2, 2022 16:27:02 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2022 19:29:46 GMT -8
I've been trading a lot lately - mostly selling puts and calls - racking up the short term cap gains. At least I was until Generals' Earnings/Losings Week. It all depends on how you are taxed on it, but pay attention to what that tax rate will be. While a special case, we had stuff taxed at an effective 49.something rate, and that's without state income tax. If you normally get some of that amazing 0% rate for LTCG, then not only does too much income or STCG get taxed at some rate, but it also pushes otherwise 0% LTCG up to 15%, then 18.6%, then 23.8%. Combined, that just sucks a bit, only getting to keep basically half of those short term cap gains you are racking up. Instead, and especially if you want to do it sometime, donate. "2 for 1, man, it's a steal!" It was disappointing to see some of the short term jingle I made coming out of the covid lows was taxed that way. And we do have some occasional normal income. I've decided now it's just in our best interest to donate if we get above the standard deduction amount, while keeping in mind that utilizing a charitable trust, you can donate a lot in one year, and make the final designations across multiple ones. "Do what you like". But keep that option in mind, especially when CA is taking a cut too.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 2, 2022 19:37:39 GMT -8
BTW, logged in users should be ad-free again.
A very generous user, who paid for 13 months of ad-free service in the recent past, asked me about the ads. It turned out in addition to the wonderful benefit that this user gave us, we had something like 23 credits for 50k page views ad-free.
I've set it up to use some of those over the next 6 months. These days we are not getting to 50k views from logged in users, per month, though extra pageviews on the individual credit expire. So we have a bit of a backlog, that might potentially take us through the next 2 years.
Enjoy!
In other news, remember to log in once in a while. If we all posted once and "liked" a post once every week, this would be a busy place relatively. But in setting the bar low, let's have a challenge of posting and liking a post at least once a month.
Thanks all!
(EDIT: Thanks for all the "likes", but feel free to spread them around. In this case I am just the messenger. Glad to see some users over the past couple weeks that we haven't seen in a while.)
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