4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 7, 2022 18:26:04 GMT -8
Opening this early, to thank applsauce for all of the hard work of opening the daily thread, while also asking others to step in.
Like I asked a year or two ago, you can follow applsauce's and Since84's format of having a bunch of links to recent news and articles. aaplsauce has been including
That can get you started.
Or you can post a question or comment to get things going.
While it would be great to have someone doing this every day, maybe for variety we want to have people sign up for different days?
Ready to step up? Post a reply, picking a day or two that you want to start the daily thread. FWIW, applsauce often does it at 10-12pm PT, so no matter what timezone you are in it is possible to start the thread. Ideally it would open at least an hour or two before the market opens for the day, but often the followup posts don't start until the market is open, so the timing doesn't matter that much.
Thanks all!
And thanks aaplsauce, for opening the daily thread for a while now after Since84 took a break.
Aaron
(EDIT: The only real extra work is that post-closing, the thread opener should edit their post to update the subject line with the closing price)
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 8, 2022 2:00:48 GMT -8
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Post by aaplsauce on May 8, 2022 22:10:41 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on May 9, 2022 4:24:41 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 9, 2022 7:02:12 GMT -8
I plan to open the thread through Friday this week. I'd like to go out with AAPL having a rich green week. Futures currently red...I think most of us would enjoy seeing a "rich green week" for AAPL. Maybe it will come around. It seems hard to set a "painful low", for AAPL but mainly for the market as a whole, with these huge wall of worry items still in play. If it was just interest rates and inflation that would be one thing, but Russia and the interrelated oil makes it tough. From a "holding up well" standpoint, I was liking the $155 level better than the $153 one. I'm not looking to buy or sell anytime soon, so really it doesn't matter. But like forms of depression seen with too many overcast days, sometimes it's great to get the sun out and see it shine!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 9, 2022 9:51:15 GMT -8
It's tough because there are 2 different things going on here. One is that now that people have worked from home, and had some advantages from it, it's tempting to stay that way. Some people prefer it completely, some people prefer being in person, and some people want some of both. Individuality works in there, as does scheduling and flexibility. And then there is commute time, which adds up a lot more if it's longer, like if wanting to live in SF but commuting down to Cupertino, something that many of the younger folks did, enjoying living in a big city. Hence the tech buses. Sadly the end to end process of public transportation on the peninsula isn't the best, with BART not going down that way, and CalTrain having limited SF exposure, and it's stop near Cupertino being way up in Mountain View, about 20 minutes away by car. Apple has buses that go up there, but it all adds up. But the other thing is people that have moved away, and like it. It's hard to know the actual numbers on that, even if there are lots of articles. Some portion of the people that were working at home moved further away, and some portion of those people have decided they like their new area. Those people are the ones that really aren't going to want to go back at all, even 1-3 days in the office per week. While we've known 3 families where the dad flies away for work for the week, along with others that are commercial pilots so it is implied, it's just not a normal long term solution for a lot of people. These people are likely to give a lot of push back, especially if other companies out there are willing to have 100% remote employees, so they have potential job offers. From this article about moving to urban countiesMy guess is that this could be between 1-2% of the employees, but possibly even up to 5% or higher. Having worked and volunteered in both setups, I wish there was more flexibility in "work from home days" in general, and it seems these couple of years have likely pushed things that way. But there is some value in meeting in person, and being at the same place at the same time. Apple has seen some value in this for a while, including setting up their own cafeteria before it was as popular, and having Friday evening "Beer Bashes" every 3 weeks or so, for people to hang out and mingle. It is tough to quantify, and thus hard to value. If starting from scratch you might be able to tie a pay incentive to it, and maybe that is the way to go both in incentivizing in-person working while giving a way to not be in-person for jobs where it is feasible, and also trying to offset part of the high local cost of living. Tim and management will figure it out. But there will probably also be lots of uproar about this, since some portion has moved and doesn't want to move back.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 9, 2022 12:14:38 GMT -8
Some really interesting psychology going on. Amazing how quickly a concession to government Covid mandates becomes an entitlement. Apple didn't build a $4B HQ so employees could sit at home in their PJ's. I don't think any reasonable person believes not coming to work is more innovative and productive than everyone being in the same building. That's self-interested nonsense. But in the long run, it is not in the interest of native-born SV employees to sit at home and be difficult. See: Apple leans on Chinese staff more following years of COVID restrictionsAnd:
Get to work people - before you are replaced by a foreigner!
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Post by duckpins on May 9, 2022 12:21:54 GMT -8
" I don't think any reasonable person ..." There you go again. Unfortunately people are becoming separated by the advance of social media. It is creating more micro factions which believe this or that. According to Jefferson factions will destroy Democracy. But then his statues are all down now so...
Going to work in a beautiful building is a blessing.
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Post by duckpins on May 9, 2022 12:28:30 GMT -8
The last 3 trading days 0 of the 30+ Chinese stocks have increased in price. Someone is either leveraged highly and trading back to no leverage, shorting like crazy or creating a pile of cash. Good call with the Apple weekly channel. With the S&P knocking of the door of the Bear, we could be heading to 3500 which was the first resting place on the way up after the Covid Low.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 9, 2022 13:16:35 GMT -8
" I don't think any reasonable person ..." There you go again. Unfortunately people are becoming separated by the advance of social media. It is creating more micro factions which believe this or that. According to Jefferson factions will destroy Democracy. But then his statues are all down now so... Going to work in a beautiful building is a blessing. Jefferson was terrified of democracy and mob rule, so he helped to design a republic. But as it turns out, the worst faction became the permanent DC swamp. I'll amend my comment to, "no reasonable CEO."
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Post by firestorm on May 9, 2022 14:21:09 GMT -8
" I don't think any reasonable person ..." There you go again. Unfortunately people are becoming separated by the advance of social media. It is creating more micro factions which believe this or that. According to Jefferson factions will destroy Democracy. But then his statues are all down now so... Going to work in a beautiful building is a blessing. Jefferson was terrified of democracy and mob rule, so he helped to design a republic. But as it turns out, the worst faction became the permanent DC swamp. I'll amend my comment to, "no reasonable CEO." In times of low unemployment, the employees have an advantage. If Apple chooses to lose top talent it may take a hit to its earnings future. I think the company needs to offer a great deal of flexibility to (at least) top employees.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on May 9, 2022 14:34:28 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 9, 2022 15:35:40 GMT -8
Some really interesting psychology going on. Amazing how quickly a concession to government Covid mandates becomes an entitlement. Apple didn't build a $4B HQ so employees could sit at home in their PJ's. I don't think any reasonable person believes not coming to work is more innovative and productive than everyone being in the same building. That's self-interested nonsense. But in the long run, it is not in the interest of native-born SV employees to sit at home and be difficult. That is an interesting concept, that if going full time remote, it's not just the current employees, but availability to the whole US, or even the whole globe. It's one thing if you can justify that you are getting the very best person for the job. It's another if there is some sort of fungibility to it, that person A is roughly equivalent to person B, but person B's total compensation is a quarter of person A. If neither is ever going to be in the office, then what makes your choice? Part of my group went this way at IGT. First they outsourced some testing development. The generality was that it cost a lot less (1/3?) and was time offset so that things were magically done the next day, but that they needed very specific direction. Then they decided that they could outsource a bit more... The language can be an issue, but in general people with other first languages do a lot better at speaking english than we as a nation do at speaking other languages. Dang, the street vender we bought a little Eiffel tower from in Paris, I believe from South Africa, said he could speak 6 languages fluently, as did the guy at the Crepes restaurant. They both did great with english. Those were people I tipped extra! At On Semiconductor we had a couple people on H-1's on my last team from Pakistan or Bangladesh I believe. If I remember right, at some point it came up that they had to get paid a lot, to help prove that there was no other option. At a startup I worked at, where all 15 of us were remote and maybe 5 were foreign (my boss was in Israel, a team member in Italy and another in Canada), it worked out. We were all contractors, and the pay was on the low side. But we had the flexibility of working whenever we wanted. I tended to work 3 clumps of hours a day, though it was often 7 days a week, and seemed to take over my thoughts more than any other job. But I had the flexibility to do it when I wanted, and from where I wanted, a couple of times while we were away on trips. There's lots of options out there. No one thing is perfect. But you're right. If people aren't coming into the office at all, suddenly the list of potential employees opens up to the globe, as long as their skill set and communication skills are good.
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Post by hledgard on May 9, 2022 17:37:43 GMT -8
Vary thoughtful post 4aapl.
I am retired now, but I believe I could handle my job teaching from home really well. The only exception would be the actual classes. Two or three times a week was too much. Once a week or every two weeks would have been fine. It would need to be backed by a full website devoted to the course, much like this website. Then the course could really become alive.
But years ago I worked with a group designing a new computer language. (Aside: I think languages like C and Python are cryptic and a major mistake.) But the meetings were wonderful. Essential several times a week.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 9, 2022 19:13:48 GMT -8
Just like *many* AFB members, my wife and I are long-term, buy-and-hold, investors in AAPL. With the recent pullback in AAPL, as well as in the overall market, there are so many articles about how we’re now all financially doomed if we continue to hold our shares. Stock prices have fallen drastically and there seems to be no end in sight. Who knows, perhaps this time is different than anything we’ve experienced over the last 20+ years? But to me, we seem to be very familiar territory. As I posted several days ago, I don’t pay much attention to YTD gains or losses, but instead track how AAPL performs from year to year between the anniversaries of my retirement on 05/19/08. We’re now 10 calendar days away from 05/19/21 and, even with the recent fall of the share price, I see no reason to panic. Yes, AAPL is down over -16%, YTD…but AAPL is up 22% from 05/19/21. NOTE: Of course, any year-long period could be used…I’m just partial to that particular date. As you can easily from the attachments below, AAPL has increased in share price, year to year, 11 of the almost 14 years since I retired. The positive years varied between 1% to 95% for about a 46% average. The negative years varied between -18% to -31% to bring it down to 31% over the 14 years. With 10 days to go, I’m expecting AAPL to remain above $124.69…but who really knows what will happen in the market? Certainly not me. I am pretty confident of one thing regarding AAPL’s share price. When February’s dividends were paid, the AAPL dividends in my IRA’s were auto-reinvested at $171.98/share. When AAPL dividends are paid this Thursday, I expect all investors who are dripping their AAPL dividends will be pleased to see the extra shares that will be purchased for the same value of dividends. 😎
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 9, 2022 19:50:38 GMT -8
Vary thoughtful post 4aapl. I am retired now, but I believe I could handle my job teaching from home really well. The only exception would be the actual classes. Two or three times a week was too much. Once a week or every two weeks would have been fine. It would need to be backed by a full website devoted to the course, much like this website. Then the course could really become alive. But years ago I worked with a group designing a new computer language. (Aside: I think languages like C and Python are cryptic and a major mistake.) But the meetings were wonderful. Essential several times a week. Yep, education seems to be a ripe area for some remote work. And there are places that are doing it, along with some that have done it (Khan Academy). The teacher in my son's geometry class refers them to Khan Academy. We though it crazy that people said he should just take this year's match class through the local JC, but.... I wish I had the questions ready for Woz when he came here, speaking at the college. He taught at an elementary school (I think) post-Apple, and has thought about schooling. There's something there, and places are trying it. It's not just to the point of someone pulling it all together and knocking it out of the park. And if you don't care about making a buck out of it, or who sees it, all the better. It is better when there are at least 2 teaching styles, as I had a professor in college that wrote the book he was using. He even talked about the error or two. This was before too much what available on the internet, and it wasn't a trivial class (fluid dynamics), so I took it again. Same professor, same book. One trick would be having enough of the testing material be easily gradable by a computer. This might be the tough part for all of the online courses, the difference from making it free or cheap to all, vs charging something for those who want credit.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 10, 2022 2:43:52 GMT -8
Some really interesting psychology going on. Amazing how quickly a concession to government Covid mandates becomes an entitlement. Apple didn't build a $4B HQ so employees could sit at home in their PJ's. I don't think any reasonable person believes not coming to work is more innovative and productive than everyone being in the same building. That's self-interested nonsense. But in the long run, it is not in the interest of native-born SV employees to sit at home and be difficult. See: Apple leans on Chinese staff more following years of COVID restrictionsAnd: Get to work people - before you are replaced by a foreigner! Unintended consequences. It’s been seen far too many times in the labor movement which eventually forces companies to look to alternative’s that may not be the best in the long run.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 10, 2022 8:43:41 GMT -8
Jefferson was terrified of democracy and mob rule, so he helped to design a republic. But as it turns out, the worst faction became the permanent DC swamp. I'll amend my comment to, "no reasonable CEO." In times of low unemployment, the employees have an advantage. If Apple chooses to lose top talent it may take a hit to its earnings future. I think the company needs to offer a great deal of flexibility to (at least) top employees. I just don't buy this "let the inmates run the asylum" management concept. Apple didn't become the world most profitable company and brand being a democracy. Far from it.
Let the sit-at-home in PJ's types leave. Hell, Jobs didn't even want employees playing golf. Who the hell has time for golf?!
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Post by firestorm on May 10, 2022 9:44:48 GMT -8
In times of low unemployment, the employees have an advantage. If Apple chooses to lose top talent it may take a hit to its earnings future. I think the company needs to offer a great deal of flexibility to (at least) top employees. I just don't buy this "let the inmates run the asylum" management concept. Apple didn't become the world most profitable company and brand being a democracy. Far from it. Let the sit-at-home in PJ's types leave. Hell, Jobs didn't even want employees playing golf. Who the hell has time for golf?! I agree with you, and I think for productivity's sake most employees should go to work the majority of their time. Except that I would put almost all managers and corporate executives in your inmates category. Most are worth shit. I've just seen too many brownnosers and "get along to get ahead" types and "strike down but grovel up" types in my life. Good managers are as rare as Ivory-billed Woodpeckers.
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