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Post by montegn on May 11, 2022 16:44:07 GMT -8
Although a novice at TA, I do see the 140 support, but looking back to last summer to now, support could be where we are now, I hope. Any TA guidance/ opinions please.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 11, 2022 17:02:52 GMT -8
A good day to peak at the 5-year chart and take a walk outside... I'm as comfortable as I ever was holding onto my shares of Apple. Tomorrow I'll see a friend of mine who is heavily invested in Netflix. I have a feeling I'll be buying the drinks. Maybe if Disney tanks far enough, it will become affordable for...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2022 17:03:20 GMT -8
Although a novice at TA, I do see the 140 support, but looking back to last summer to now, support could be where we are now, I hope. Any TA guidance/ opinions please. I'm not a TA expert, but AAPL's RSI rarely gets below 35, or even 30. It's at 34 now. I'm already borrowing and don't think it is wise to borrow more. If that wasn't the case, that instead I had cash or reasonable margin amounts, I'd borrow. But marketwide changes are times where sometimes normal things don't matter. It's one thing to have a 10-15-20% flash crash/greece crash/covid recession, but it's hard to know the limits on something that might turn out to be bigger than expected. It doesn't seem like this should be huge, with interest rates on the rise, inflation up, commodities up with a war, though employment up too. But these are special times, and I don't know what certainty I would put on anything, other than this really feels like less of an issue than the dot com bubble or the housing bubble. OTOH, it's really all psychological at some level, and how do you define or limit that? Careful out there. In 2007/8 I sold a bunch early, to make sure I didn't get a margin call. But that was different times, where I was a lot more risky. And then I realize I was late to taking on an oversized amount of risk once things turned around. But in 2000 I was blind to it, thinking things should be worth X amount, above where they were, and then watching it shrink. Looking at the historicals, I feel a little better since it wasn't just a fading out but a quick shrinking. Still, it's good to not get too cemented to anchor points of the past. While that is true when holding straight stock, it's much more important when using margin or other leverage choices like options. Again, careful out there. While I like to think this must be near the bottom, that might just be wishful thinking. It really has to squeeze a bunch of people out of their positions, and give plenty of pain. While each might be different, that is what sets a bottom in tough times.
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Post by hledgard on May 11, 2022 17:22:58 GMT -8
It almost seems like the FAANG stocks are having a fire sale !
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Post by aaplcrazie on May 11, 2022 17:48:02 GMT -8
Who is your broker if I may ask? Fidelity in this case. I've used them for nearly 40 years. Before that I used Schwab, and I overlapped Schwab and Fidelity for a number of years. I also use IB, but much less often, and usually for things that are much more esoteric than Apple and Apple options. Hey Mark, I agree the Site re-design particularly on IOS seems really dumbed down.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 11, 2022 18:04:54 GMT -8
A good day to peak at the 5-year chart and take a walk outside... I'm as comfortable as I ever was holding onto my shares of Apple. Tomorrow I'll see a friend of mine who is heavily invested in Netflix. I have a feeling I'll be buying the drinks. Maybe if Disney tanks far enough, it will become affordable for... I'd buy some Disney ... at about 87 or so. That's an interesting proposition. I don't generally like massive deals like that, but maybe there's a way to make it work. However, I can't see Apple operating theme parks and the like ... their desire for perfection would lead to outsized capital investment and lower eventual returns. Maybe the Theme Parks could be spun off and the production and streaming stay?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2022 19:41:40 GMT -8
Maybe if Disney tanks far enough, it will become affordable for... I'd buy some Disney ... at about 87 or so. That's an interesting proposition. I don't generally like massive deals like that, but maybe there's a way to make it work. However, I can't see Apple operating theme parks and the like ... their desire for perfection would lead to outsized capital investment and lower eventual returns. Maybe the Theme Parks could be spun off and the production and streaming stay? I want my Pixar shares back! Or share. I can't remember if I had any later on. But I sold off all but one due to a margin call in 2000, to hold on to AAPL. It sucked! But what was worse was TD, then Ameritrade I believe, sold off my one share. It was a price below $60, possibly around $34, with trading costs of $10 and change. That made a lot of sense! Thanks! What do people think of Activision/Blizzard, ATVI? I was already tempted, a pretty good shot at 20-25% gain, if the MSFT deal goes through at $95. Of course in retrospect, especially if selling anything before these last few days, it would be amazing. Ah well, can't win everything, or even most things. AAPL keeps us happy, even if there are ups and downs in the process. An up right now would be nice, but that's not how the process works. You have to have the bad days to appreciate the great days.
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Post by dc930 on May 11, 2022 20:03:55 GMT -8
So I’ve always kept some dry powder around, nominally for a housing upgrade or something. I have margin available to me via TDA - like 4aapl said be cautious. But it’s tempting that this could be a good opportunity to make a significant investment. I rarely dip into margin but am starting to consider it.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 325
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Post by crispin on May 11, 2022 20:29:41 GMT -8
A good day to peak at the 5-year chart and take a walk outside... I'm as comfortable as I ever was holding onto my shares of Apple. Tomorrow I'll see a friend of mine who is heavily invested in Netflix. I have a feeling I'll be buying the drinks. Ouch! No Appletinis please. Go heavy! Straight up, or if liking a sweeter drink, I think the double long-island iced tee did me in, back when I was a sweet drink kinda guy. On the up side, he can sell now and not have to pay much in LTCG, rolling it over into other investments. Everything is down! While I happen to like AAPL, even indexes and such are a good choice. Think out 10 years on where he wants to be. FWIW, if anything is in an IRA, this could be a great time to roll over into a Roth. We did that, I believe at the end of 2007. Not only did it lock in taxes while in a state with no income tax, but it also hit near the lows. I won't give exact figures, but roughly speaking my ROTH is 40x what I paid taxes on 15 years ago. NFLX has gone so vertical for so long that he could still be up an astronomical figure. But the question is where he wants to be, 10 or more years out. This could be a good time to change it up, with less of a hit from the tax man. (no walk today, instead having to deal with stuff I'd rather not, in non-market matters. Today was the biggest 1 day loss we've ever had, in total dollars. But that's the nice thing about dividends. We know that our current dividend take in taxable accounts, mostly from AAPL, is greater than our normal spend rate. So it's not too big of a worry. OTOH, we talked with a friend yesterday, who likely has 1-2x our total. They've looking at some pretty big upgrades, and she is worried about it, especially in this market. It probably all is trivial in the long run, but it is much more of a valid concern, even from a higher valuation, if you don't have some of that coming in consistently. But anytime you are taking about spending a whole lot in one year, which coordinates with a year that is bad for the market, it tends to stew a bit. Thanks AAPL, for the consistent and slowly increasing dividend) The extra sting comes from the fact that he planned the visit to New Zealand a couple of months ago when things weren't looking this grim for Netflix. What a difference a few weeks can make. He started buying Netflix more than 10 years ago, and I don't know what his cost average is, but I imagine he's still fairly well in the green. Though that's probably small consolation when you're down almost 75% from the peak... That'll take the wind out of most anyone's sail. Funny how quickly and easily one becomes emotionally attached to higher share prices. I remember having dinners with him at Balthazar in NYC, must've been around 2010, and he would jokingly call me "Apple Man" since I never took his advice to buy NFLX. Back then the two stocks were almost neck and neck in performance. A few years after that, Netflix seemed to rocket higher and I recall the occasional moments of wishing I'd taken his advice. Ah well, actually while he's here I hope we can avoid the cliché of two middle-aged guys moaning about stocks for hours.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2022 21:33:34 GMT -8
So I’ve always kept some dry powder around, nominally for a housing upgrade or something. I have margin available to me via TDA - like 4aapl said be cautious. But it’s tempting that this could be a good opportunity to make a significant investment. I rarely dip into margin but am starting to consider it. Start with the dry powder. If you don't normally use margin, stay away from it. If you do use it, go small. In 2000 I had margin calls, having to sell off stuff. In 2008 I had a margin call at the start of the downturn, and then preemptively sold off extra, doing the calculations of what I felt were the worst case scenarios. That time I remember how many shares I sold off that day, for right about $95. Reverse calculating that for what might have been wouldn't do me any good. Margin, or leverage through options, can help you out. But it is also dangerous. We all know this. But it bears repeating, for those that haven't experienced the downside. It can be a great tool. But there's a potential downside too, if you aren't careful.
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Post by duckpins on May 12, 2022 10:34:59 GMT -8
TD is better than both. Unfortunately Schwab bought them so they will destroy the interface just like they did when they bought Options Express which was excellent.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 12, 2022 10:53:01 GMT -8
Fidelity in this case. I've used them for nearly 40 years. Before that I used Schwab, and I overlapped Schwab and Fidelity for a number of years. I also use IB, but much less often, and usually for things that are much more esoteric than Apple and Apple options. Hey Mark, I agree the Site re-design particularly on IOS seems really dumbed down. They are just *SO* bad! Fidelity used to be the technology leader in the brokerage space. But it looks like they completely destroyed that recently. In the web browser on a laptop, I just placed an order to sell some puts, and in the "limit" box, they have a popup that allows you to select various things for quicker entry. One of the things they have is "midpoint" (the point midway between bid and ask), so I tried it. The midpoint was something like 16.92 or similar, so I quickly chose it, and then wanted to place the order ... AND they come back with an error saying that option increments have to be in 5 cent units. I know that has been the case for most options (at this price level), SO WHY THE HELL DID THEY POPULATE IT WITH THAT NUMBER AUTOMATICALLY knowing that it isn't an acceptable number?
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