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Post by aaplsauce on May 10, 2022 20:45:03 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 11, 2022 2:23:30 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 11, 2022 3:38:32 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 11, 2022 6:10:14 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2022 6:22:11 GMT -8
One option would be defining those killer AR apps, and focusing on the ones where size and weight don't matter as much, but where the technology can be impressive. That might make it be things that are less portable (as far as walking while using), which happens to be where most gaming is, and can have a lot of money attached. That's what the oculus has focused on, and there was a push by the kids to get one, especially at a fundraiser where we could have got one at a discount. We held off, since the learning center had some that they could use, but a cousin has one. It could also be a good fit for various education and simulation things, from flight simulations to other learning, where the user might even be seated. One problem with this is that if looking at being less portable, it's swayed more towards VR than AR. But I'm sure there are some "limited mobility" items (basically thinking higher weight and limited battery life, so shorter duration things) that tilt towards AR, like using it in a museum or historic place to give an enhanced experience without a human guide, like some of the audio devices that are used today. I'm sure Apple is on this, and that if/when the technology and uses come together, they will be ready.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on May 11, 2022 7:47:52 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 11, 2022 7:52:34 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 11, 2022 8:03:22 GMT -8
Gawd what a poorly written article. I think 99% of writers today never took a news writing course (I did in my first semester of college). What is the lede here? I think it *might* be, "Apple to go all-in on ads"? There's a lot of money there, just waiting to be taken. Note that TV ad revs are still tops. That explains the foray into sports, but I don't like those margins (or Apple further feminizing men's sports). Good stuff. But I think one thing that always gets overlooked is how Steve could repeatedly Svengali CEOs and boards into doing what he wanted, often against their own interests. With iPod, it was getting the Big 5 record labels to sign on without any cut of iPod sales (one record CEO said he'll regret that for the rest of his days). I doubt any other human could have sold the Music Store to the record industry. See also, iPhone and the carriers, Pixar and Disney, Apple and Xerox, and of course Apple and NeXt. Some people still think NeXt was a failure, LOL. We're all using it to this day. Well, considering USB-C is already on iPads...and the authoritarian EU now decides standards for the entire world...at least until the USA fights back. Those tariffs are looking better and better to me. Another example of a trolltastic book, but how can you criticize it if you don't read it, but why support trolltastic books? ♾️ Oh noes, Apple wasted a billion a year on car R&D? Apple will make a billion a day in at least two quarters this year, dipshit. Rounding error. Regarding the car, I don't give a damn how much cash Apple hemorrhages on it, so long as they get it right. I honestly believe it is the only (known) product category that could double Apple's market cap.
And I agree with Jony Ive; Mercedes are fugly.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 11, 2022 8:51:40 GMT -8
In an uptrend, every dip is bought. The BTFD we are familiar and comfortable with. Every dip is a good time to buy.
In a downtrend, it’s the opposite — every bounce is sold. Yesterday, we were cheering a pop to 156. Last week it was 166.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 11, 2022 9:08:09 GMT -8
And a few minutes later here we are, just a stumble away from 146…
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 11, 2022 9:13:51 GMT -8
For those who crave a bit of hope to hold onto, here's a TA signal that we are due for a bounce (which will probably be a temporary one) Slight bullish divergence
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Post by duckpins on May 11, 2022 10:25:33 GMT -8
Sentiment indicators are all at near or all time lows. To wit: "bulls fell to 27.6%, from 30.9% a week ago. That is below their 2022 low at 29.9%, and their Mar-2020 low at 30.1%, to show the fewest bulls since early 2016." Divergences on the RSI in Netflix show hope of a bottom. From 701 to 170 or so. Clearly negativity to the extreme. FANG is being declawed. Apple downfall day before dividends are reinvested has a silver lining for those who reinvest.
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Post by duckpins on May 11, 2022 10:39:04 GMT -8
AMZN is close to its 2018 9/4 high. 2050. Close at 2080. Another down day tomorrow and it will break that low. Cathie Wood started the selling of AAPL when she announced she was using APPL as a change purse to buy other stocks. Arkk 132 to 37. The antiArkk ETF SARK is at an all time high as you might think. Where is all this money going one wonders or is this just deleveraging as interest rates go up?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 11, 2022 10:44:17 GMT -8
Deleveraging. Fed intentionally pulling out the rug to create a deflationary cycle to try to break inflation. They want assets to go down so people have less money to spend. “Curb demand” in Fed parlance.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 11, 2022 11:11:05 GMT -8
Where is all this money going one wonders or is this just deleveraging as interest rates go up? Exactly. Having a bunch of cash on hand from sold stocks lessens the amount of money in people's hands? Dumbest thing ever, selling at low(er)s to "save" what exactly? The Fed is the Wizard of Oz. They have one lever to try to fix everything and it ain't working. Because this inflation isn't from too hot of an economy. Quite the contrary, it's from an economy that was shut down by idiot governments and the supply chain can't just turn back on like a light switch. It is astonishing how many people by the Fed's bullshit without any pushback or independent thinking. An unelected banker making these decisions, like he's some unquestionable oracle! Destroying an already destroyed village in order to save it. But hey, $30B sent to Ukraine. There's $30B that won't be in our hands.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 11, 2022 11:22:59 GMT -8
You guys are thinking like individual investors rather than the hedge funds and big players who control the market.
Individual investors sell a stock and have cash sure.
But big players do everything with leverage. They already have huge margin loans that help them own more stock than the amount of cash on hand. When markets go down, and when rates go up, they have to sell to deleverage. That’s why sell offs accelerate when they downturns get really bad, and why overextended big players get into trouble staying solvent in bear markets.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
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Post by Ted on May 11, 2022 11:38:19 GMT -8
Where is all this money going one wonders or is this just deleveraging as interest rates go up? Exactly. Having a bunch of cash on hand from sold stocks lessens the amount of money in people's hands? Dumbest thing ever, selling at low(er)s to "save" what exactly? The Fed is the Wizard of Oz. They have one lever to try to fix everything and it ain't working. Because this inflation isn't from too hot of an economy. Quite the contrary, it's from an economy that was shut down by idiot governments and the supply chain can't just turn back on like a light switch. It is astonishing how many people by the Fed's bullshit without any pushback or independent thinking. An unelected banker making these decisions, like he's some unquestionable oracle! Destroying an already destroyed village in order to save it. But hey, $30B sent to Ukraine. There's $30B that won't be in our hands. Uhh, yeh, what a waste, all that $ being spent to help innocents defend themselves from a madman. The US should stick to its knitting and only spend billions on border walls that can be cut through with battery-powered sawzalls. 🙄 #JDsoapBox
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2022 11:57:07 GMT -8
tough day
Sure, there's a lining somewhere, silver or not. "at least we're not..."? Well, TSLA or NFLX, but just about everything else did better than AAPL today.
And yes, AAPL is still up YOY, around 15%. There are much worse things out there, and AAPL is lucky in comparison to "only" be just below it's price from 6 months ago.
Cut it out with the political crap. Leaving it, due to the poll asking for a little less moderation.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2022 12:18:09 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 11, 2022 12:23:37 GMT -8
tough day Sure, there's a lining somewhere, silver or not. "at least we're not..."? Well, TSLA or NFLX, but just about everything else did better than AAPL today. And yes, AAPL is still up YOY, around 15%. There are much worse things out there, and AAPL is lucky in comparison to "only" be just below it's price from 6 months ago. We're getting closer to the 140 we discussed a few weeks ago. I tried to sell some puts near the close today, but none of my orders were executed. I *despise* what my broker has done to their online order tickets. I've been placing all sorts of stock and option orders since 1980 or so, and have been entering my own online since that first existed, so dumbing it down for me is not going to cut it.
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Post by duckpins on May 11, 2022 12:58:19 GMT -8
Who is your broker if I may ask?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 11, 2022 13:11:52 GMT -8
Who is your broker if I may ask? Fidelity in this case. I've used them for nearly 40 years. Before that I used Schwab, and I overlapped Schwab and Fidelity for a number of years. I also use IB, but much less often, and usually for things that are much more esoteric than Apple and Apple options.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 11, 2022 13:40:47 GMT -8
You guys are thinking like individual investors rather than the hedge funds and big players who control the market. Individual investors sell a stock and have cash sure. But big players do everything with leverage. They already have huge margin loans that help them own more stock than the amount of cash on hand. When markets go down, and when rates go up, they have to sell to deleverage. That’s why sell offs accelerate when they downturns get really bad, and why overextended big players get into trouble staying solvent in bear markets. I have margin too and I am well aware of who controls the market. A realized loss is still a loss. And the more they sell, the more their stocks go down. Oh noes, they will have to pay .6% instead of .5% on their margin rates? Mine is still 0.5%. Selling is dumb and contagious. Sell calls to cover and you don't take a realized loss. Let's not revere these bozos just because dumb money lets them control it.
Uhh, yeh, what a waste, all that $ being spent to help innocents defend themselves from a madman. The US should stick to its knitting and only spend billions on border walls that can be cut through with battery-powered sawzalls. 🙄 #JDsoapBoxNot our problem. And if you care about innocents dying, sending tens of billions of weapons to the conflict ain't going to do it. Seems like if you are concerned about innocents, you'd be pushing for peace, not war. Ukraine is a fait accompli. Russia will win eventually win. Might as well sue for peace now, before more innocents die, e.g., all our brokerage accounts (unless you hold RTX or LMT).
Honestly Ted, not liking someone or his actions doesn't make him crazy. The US really could use a dose of strategic empathy right about now. Even Bin Laden had a very rational purpose for 9/11 (he wanted us to attack in the Mideast and have us ultimately skulk away embarrassed). When is the last time we actually won a war? Facts > feewings!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 11, 2022 14:25:32 GMT -8
Sorry, you clearly don’t know what I’m talking about. It’s not about margin interest rates on individual accounts. It’s about big whales who own 3x more stock than their cash value. When the price of their holdings go down they have to liquidate - they’re not choosing to. And I’m not revering them or their choices, I’m explaining how the mechanics of a forced sell off works.
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Post by deasys on May 11, 2022 14:29:38 GMT -8
Actually, it is. Take the long view and think about Russia's irredentism would mean. If, by "peace," you mean capitulation, I guess you'd be right… Nope, not even close. Russia is a goner.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 11, 2022 14:31:35 GMT -8
The other problem is, there’s no catalyst for this selloff reversing. I said in January it looked like 2008 and now it’s feeling more and more like it. As long as inflation is still extreme, the Fed won’t be able to help — in fact, they have to keep crushing stocks to tame inflation. Good earnings don’t seem to help… so what will stop the free fall?
Feels like we might be looking at worst case scenarios of AAPL back to 15-18 PE.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 11, 2022 15:09:01 GMT -8
Sorry, you clearly don’t know what I’m talking about. It’s not about margin interest rates on individual accounts. It’s about big whales who own 3x more stock than their cash value. When the price of their holdings go down they have to liquidate - they’re not choosing to. And I’m not revering them or their choices, I’m explaining how the mechanics of a forced sell off works. It is your problem if your readers don't know what you are talking about, not the readers'. Are you really suggesting that there are no subjective decisions being made, that this is purely if-then algo selling? Humans have no discretion, they must sell?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 11, 2022 15:10:17 GMT -8
Actually, it is. Take the long view and think about Russia's irredentism would mean. If, by "peace," you mean capitulation, I guess you'd be right… Nope, not even close. Russia is a goner. Bookmark this. Let's see who controls Donbas in 5 years. At least we know Ratheyon stockholders will be doing great.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 325
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Post by crispin on May 11, 2022 15:45:20 GMT -8
A good day to peek at the 5-year chart and take a walk outside... I'm as comfortable as I ever was holding onto my shares of Apple.
Tomorrow I'll see a friend of mine who is heavily invested in Netflix. I have a feeling I'll be buying the drinks.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2022 16:39:18 GMT -8
A good day to peak at the 5-year chart and take a walk outside... I'm as comfortable as I ever was holding onto my shares of Apple. Tomorrow I'll see a friend of mine who is heavily invested in Netflix. I have a feeling I'll be buying the drinks. Ouch! No Appletinis please. Go heavy! Straight up, or if liking a sweeter drink, I think the double long-island iced tee did me in, back when I was a sweet drink kinda guy. On the up side, he can sell now and not have to pay much in LTCG, rolling it over into other investments. Everything is down! While I happen to like AAPL, even indexes and such are a good choice. Think out 10 years on where he wants to be. FWIW, if anything is in an IRA, this could be a great time to roll over into a Roth. We did that, I believe at the end of 2007. Not only did it lock in taxes while in a state with no income tax, but it also hit near the lows. I won't give exact figures, but roughly speaking my ROTH is 40x what I paid taxes on 15 years ago. NFLX has gone so vertical for so long that he could still be up an astronomical figure. But the question is where he wants to be, 10 or more years out. This could be a good time to change it up, with less of a hit from the tax man. (no walk today, instead having to deal with stuff I'd rather not, in non-market matters. Today was the biggest 1 day loss we've ever had, in total dollars. But that's the nice thing about dividends. We know that our current dividend take in taxable accounts, mostly from AAPL, is greater than our normal spend rate. So it's not too big of a worry. OTOH, we talked with a friend yesterday, who likely has 1-2x our total. They've looking at some pretty big upgrades, and she is worried about it, especially in this market. It probably all is trivial in the long run, but it is much more of a valid concern, even from a higher valuation, if you don't have some of that coming in consistently. But anytime you are taking about spending a whole lot in one year, which coordinates with a year that is bad for the market, it tends to stew a bit. Thanks AAPL, for the consistent and slowly increasing dividend)
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