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Post by aaplsauce on May 11, 2022 21:55:48 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 12, 2022 2:04:54 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 12, 2022 2:31:51 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 12, 2022 4:15:09 GMT -8
I hope Apple is taking advantage of this BTFD opportunity.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 12, 2022 5:43:26 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on May 12, 2022 5:52:51 GMT -8
Seems like the last 3 days there's a brief pop at 9:45am eastern that lasts about 10 minutes and then dies off. Maybe that's Apple's buy for the day? Foxconn news today wasn't helpful - where's the bottom?
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ono
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posted
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Post by ono on May 12, 2022 6:05:37 GMT -8
I found this comment at PED interesting:
“I should have saved and shared my findings on the comparison between average repurchase price again[st] the average share price per quarter. In doing the exercise I was actually surprised that for most quarters, in their repurchasing they did only slightly better than the average price, but it does make sense to me. I agree with what you state that “It’s not like Apple executives watch the share price and make immediate decisions to step in and buy momentary declines in the share price. I’d actually be troubled if that were the case.” Right, it might actually cause regular turbulence in the stock price.”
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 12, 2022 6:05:40 GMT -8
It looks like there is a small gap in the daily chart from last July at about $137.xx that may get filled. I guess it's wait and see.
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coma
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Posts: 529
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Post by coma on May 12, 2022 6:16:40 GMT -8
It looks like there is a small gap in the daily chart from last July at about $137.xx that may get filled. I guess it's wait and see. If it gets down to $137.xx, I'll be buying on the way up.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 12, 2022 6:42:09 GMT -8
Oh goodie, the Braeburn perspective.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 12, 2022 6:52:56 GMT -8
RSI got down near 30 - looks like a good day for a bounce.
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Post by nwjade on May 12, 2022 7:02:28 GMT -8
Picked up some more shares @ $140.72 with divy money. We'll see if today was the bottom...
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2022 7:17:17 GMT -8
RSI got down near 30 - looks like a good day for a bounce. Lots of morning puking, but was it enough? Marketwide, and though it really shouldn't matter but it is a psychological level and so much of this is psychological, I would have liked to see the S&P dip below the "down 20%" level. Instead it was down just over 19.5% from peak to today's low. Maybe this was the low? Maybe it isn't. Like a technical recession, you don't find out until after the fact.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2022 7:40:40 GMT -8
I found this comment at PED interesting: “I should have saved and shared my findings on the comparison between average repurchase price again[st] the average share price per quarter. In doing the exercise I was actually surprised that for most quarters, in their repurchasing they did only slightly better than the average price, but it does make sense to me. I agree with what you state that “It’s not like Apple executives watch the share price and make immediate decisions to step in and buy momentary declines in the share price. I’d actually be troubled if that were the case.” Right, it might actually cause regular turbulence in the stock price.” The management doesn't do the buying. They outsource it all, similar to a CEO normally outsourcing selling his shares so that there is less reason to suspect insider information. Normally there is a plan submitted, that can be fairly generic or fairly specific. So buy (or sell) a certain amount consistently, or use some variable (buy below the 50 DMA) or buy if it drops X amount or below the Y level. I'd hope that Apple put some flexibility in there, to buy more if below a certain level. If I was setting it up, I'd put some to all of the normal purchasing on a set schedule, and use the "accelerated buyback program" to buy extra when things are down. Or vice versa, but some format to do one level of buying relatively consistently (1/3 of total available?), more if it's down (say below the 50DMA), and the final amount if puking (RSI below 35). But yea, the C-suite isn't sitting around making buy-back decisions.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 12, 2022 7:48:34 GMT -8
Oh goodie, the Braeburn perspective. Yes, but it is a prospective.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 12, 2022 7:56:53 GMT -8
RSI got down near 30 - looks like a good day for a bounce. I should have remembered what I said yesterday - in a downtrend any bounce is sold. AAPL is now only 11% above where it was when the stock split 2 years ago. Pretty crazy.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 12, 2022 8:06:33 GMT -8
RSI got down near 30 - looks like a good day for a bounce. Lots of morning puking, but was it enough? Marketwide, and though it really shouldn't matter but it is a psychological level and so much of this is psychological, I would have liked to see the S&P dip below the "down 20%" level. Instead it was down just over 19.5% from peak to today's low. Maybe this was the low? Maybe it isn't. Like a technical recession, you don't find out until after the fact. I'm solely relying on my [generally faulty] memory, but I think the "capitulation day" usually CLOSES at or near the low. So it's rarely a morning phenomenon.
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Post by dc930 on May 12, 2022 10:00:52 GMT -8
Picked up some more shares @ $140.72 with divy money. We'll see if today was the bottom... I reinvested dividends this morning, around 145. Oh well, I'm not selling these shares for another 20 years anyway.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 12, 2022 10:09:59 GMT -8
Posted this yesterday In an uptrend, every dip is bought. The BTFD we are familiar and comfortable with. Every dip is a good time to buy. In a downtrend, it’s the opposite — every bounce is sold. Yesterday, we were cheering a pop to 156. Last week it was 166. And here we are, whooshed through 146 and almost down to 136.
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Post by silkstone on May 12, 2022 10:20:15 GMT -8
Not sure how to predict where Apple bottoms but we are obviously being pulled down by far greater forces.
I read where the cost of war in Ukraine on world economy could top 4 trillion dollars if it continues through 2022.
Bad things happen when you allow a psychopath to be in charge of a world power imo.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 12, 2022 10:52:16 GMT -8
What's that? The S&P 500, the Dow 30, Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 are all red? AAPL is down below $140(-$6.61,-4.51%) with almost 40% more volume than the average an hour and a half more before the market closes? No problem. I'm sure the *real* investors are putting their money into companies where they feel the fundamentals are stronger. /s As the NORAD supercomputer in the 1983 film WarGames stated: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play." I'm invested in AAPL for the long term...I'm not playing. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! 😎
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Post by nwjade on May 12, 2022 11:17:40 GMT -8
Picked up some more shares @ $140.72 with divy money. We'll see if today was the bottom... Just picked up some more shares at $139.68
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 12, 2022 11:22:57 GMT -8
It sucks when AAPL goes from a "flight to safety" to a "ohf*** I need to sell AAPL to cover all my other disasters". 📉
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2022 11:28:44 GMT -8
Lots of morning puking, but was it enough? Marketwide, and though it really shouldn't matter but it is a psychological level and so much of this is psychological, I would have liked to see the S&P dip below the "down 20%" level. Instead it was down just over 19.5% from peak to today's low. Maybe this was the low? Maybe it isn't. Like a technical recession, you don't find out until after the fact. I'm solely relying on my [generally faulty] memory, but I think the "capitulation day" usually CLOSES at or near the low. So it's rarely a morning phenomenon. And afternoon puking too. For whatever reason, this is feeling much more real to me now. It's all psychology, and we have some other crap going on that is really eating at us too (nothing major that affects us directly, or won't if we just let go and drop our responsibilities onto someone else). But I'm feeling down on the stock and the whole market. How bad? I've been through this before, so am not selling. And if I had low risk funds I'd probably be buying. I just mean that it is ugly enough that I am feeling down, and not knowing where or when the bottom will happen. And that should be a sign, especially if enough others feel that way. The S&P still held just above a 20% decline, whereas a solid 25% would have been good to see for setting a bottom.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on May 12, 2022 11:35:41 GMT -8
4appl, it's too late to sell anyway. Maybe between 160 and 180, but now below 140 makes no sense. We are most likely much closer to the bottom than to the top.
I rarely trade anything, but today I finally did sell those puts that I tried yesterday or the day before. And I just a few minutes ago shifted 4-5% of assets in the 401k from the cash fund into the 4 equity funds that I own. I tend to hold way too much cash, both in taxable accounts and in tax deferred accounts, and days like this is the main purpose of holding all that cash, so I may as well use it.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2022 11:44:49 GMT -8
4appl, it's too late to sell anyway. Maybe between 160 and 180, but now below 140 makes no sense. We are most likely much closer to the bottom than to the top. I rarely trade anything, but today I finally did sell those puts that I tried yesterday or the day before. And I just a few minutes ago shifted 4-5% of assets in the 401k from the cash fund into the 4 equity funds that I own. I tend to hold way too much cash, both in taxable accounts and in tax deferred accounts, and days like this is the main purpose of holding all that cash, so I may as well use it. No, today is the day to sell if you are scared or forced out. OTOH, you could do a side trade. If you felt both were going to go back to their ATH on similar timeframes, you could sell the S&P (off almost 20%) or AAPL (off 22.5% at 141) and buy the Nasdaq (off 30%) or something else. Not a trade I am looking for, though I could see switching out some SPY for QQQ. The other advantage of doing that trade now, repositioning, is that things are down so you'd pay less in taxes now. That shouldn't drive the decision, but it can be a contributor. On those lines, for anyone looking at converting a 401k or IRA over to a Roth, this is a wonderful time for that. We did that back in 2007 while things were down, paying taxes on the account. The ROTH has been mostly in AAPL, and even at yesterday's lows it was about 40x the size it had been in when we converted it. So there is a silver lining to a down market!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2022 12:19:11 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 12, 2022 12:33:03 GMT -8
If you think you're having a bad week, at least you didn't buy Terra Luna. $86 to .037 in a week.
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Post by nwjade on May 12, 2022 13:03:16 GMT -8
4appl, it's too late to sell anyway. Maybe between 160 and 180, but now below 140 makes no sense. We are most likely much closer to the bottom than to the top. I rarely trade anything, but today I finally did sell those puts that I tried yesterday or the day before. And I just a few minutes ago shifted 4-5% of assets in the 401k from the cash fund into the 4 equity funds that I own. I tend to hold way too much cash, both in taxable accounts and in tax deferred accounts, and days like this is the main purpose of holding all that cash, so I may as well use it. No, today is the day to sell if you are scared or forced out. OTOH, you could do a side trade. If you felt both were going to go back to their ATH on similar timeframes, you could sell the S&P (off almost 20%) or AAPL (off 22.5% at 141) and buy the Nasdaq (off 30%) or something else. Not a trade I am looking for, though I could see switching out some SPY for QQQ. The other advantage of doing that trade now, repositioning, is that things are down so you'd pay less in taxes now. That shouldn't drive the decision, but it can be a contributor. On those lines, for anyone looking at converting a 401k or IRA over to a Roth, this is a wonderful time for that. We did that back in 2007 while things were down, paying taxes on the account. The ROTH has been mostly in AAPL, and even at yesterday's lows it was about 40x the size it had been in when we converted it. So there is a silver lining to a down market! Most of my aapl shares are unfortunately in my IRA and would love to move them to my Roth but unfortunately even at these levels the tax would be grotesque... I considered it years ago and in retrospect should have bit the bullet then but it's way too late now for it to make sense.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2022 13:24:30 GMT -8
for anyone looking at converting a 401k or IRA over to a Roth, this is a wonderful time for that. We did that back in 2007 while things were down, paying taxes on the account. The ROTH has been mostly in AAPL, and even at yesterday's lows it was about 40x the size it had been in when we converted it. So there is a silver lining to a down market! Most of my aapl shares are unfortunately in my IRA and would love to move them to my Roth but unfortunately even at these levels the tax would be grotesque... I considered it years ago and in retrospect should have bit the bullet then but it's way too late now for it to make sense. If the rates stay the same, both fed and state if applicable, then it doesn't matter. It really feels like it should matter. But it doesn't. Run the spreadsheet. OTOH, psychologically it feels amazing!!! And then there's the handy part of having some stuff in a Roth and some in an IRA, so that you can somewhat pick and choose to help have some control over taxes. But take $5k, assume taxes of something (20% to make it easy), and some average gain (12%?). Put it for 35 years. In the IRA, that would be ($5k * (1.12^35)) * (1 - .20), or $211198.48 In the Roth, you could cheat by using the same equation and just moving the (1-.20) forward via the transitive property of multiplication. But you can also write it out, ((1- .20)*$5k)* (1.12^35), or $211198.48 Still seems wrong. And there are some differences, like if the tax rate increases, such as in general, for you directly due to higher income, or from moving to a state with a different tax rate. And some things are different in the plans, like not having a RMD with a Roth, for now. But by and large, they both are great tax advantaged accounts.
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