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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 12, 2022 13:39:26 GMT -8
4appl, it's too late to sell anyway. Maybe between 160 and 180, but now below 140 makes no sense. We are most likely much closer to the bottom than to the top. I rarely trade anything, but today I finally did sell those puts that I tried yesterday or the day before. And I just a few minutes ago shifted 4-5% of assets in the 401k from the cash fund into the 4 equity funds that I own. I tend to hold way too much cash, both in taxable accounts and in tax deferred accounts, and days like this is the main purpose of holding all that cash, so I may as well use it. Unknown. For the sake of argument, let’s imagine AAPL’s PE multiple expansion of the last 2 years had more to do with easy money from the Fed than with anythingApple related. If we go back down to the 15-18 range of Apple’s historical PE, the bottom would be more like $90-100.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2022 16:05:37 GMT -8
4appl, it's too late to sell anyway. Maybe between 160 and 180, but now below 140 makes no sense. We are most likely much closer to the bottom than to the top. I rarely trade anything, but today I finally did sell those puts that I tried yesterday or the day before. And I just a few minutes ago shifted 4-5% of assets in the 401k from the cash fund into the 4 equity funds that I own. I tend to hold way too much cash, both in taxable accounts and in tax deferred accounts, and days like this is the main purpose of holding all that cash, so I may as well use it. Unknown. For the sake of argument, let’s imagine AAPL’s PE multiple expansion of the last 2 years had more to do with easy money from the Fed than with anythingApple related. If we go back down to the 15-18 range of Apple’s historical PE, the bottom would be more like $90-100. Why stop there? The P/E dropped below 10 back in Q3 of 2013, when sales of iPhones and others faltered. The difference is that thus far this is mostly self-inflicted by the fed, and the market feeding off worries about what the fed is going to do, while also some world events and related high energy prices. It's much easier to respond, psychologically or otherwise, to a drop due to something you can put your finger on, such as slowing sales. It's tougher here, when there are a couple things that aren't amazing, but company wide things are generally good, and economy wide they are still decent and even very good in specific areas like employment. OTOH, this drop for AAPL was about 22.5% from the ATH when at 141 earlier today. It looks like the last big drop was roughly 37.5% at the start of Covid (many would say also self inflicted, some initially and some in retrospect, but the "fear cycle" is similar, which is interesting in it's own way). schrts.co/YyfxSgat
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