Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 16, 2022 1:37:40 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 16, 2022 1:48:46 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 16, 2022 2:03:05 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 16, 2022 2:12:33 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 16, 2022 13:09:19 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 16, 2022 14:43:50 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on May 16, 2022 16:45:48 GMT -8
This guy had great timing in this particular case with AAPL. Not so much with an earlier AAPL investment. From your link: === It's worth noting that Burry trumpeted Apple as a stock worthy of Warren Buffett in 1999 — about 17 years before the Berkshire Hathaway CEO invested in the company. Berkshire now counts Apple as the number-one holding in its stock portfolio, and Buffett recently revealed he added to his company's own position last quarter.
=== I was curious about Michael Burry's investment early in AAPL and a link within the story led to this: === While Burry beat Buffett to Apple by more than 15 years, he didn't fully capitalize on his early insight. The budding investor sold his shares after they jumped between 50% and 75% in a matter of months, he disclosed in a July 1999 post.
Burry reinvested at some point over the next 15 years. His Scion fund's biggest position in the first quarter of 2016 was Apple — it owned 75,000 shares worth $8 million, SEC filings show.
Yet Burry sold the following quarter. If he had held on, Scion's stake would have more than quadrupled in value to $36 million today. ===
Perhaps he sold the Scion AAPL shares and reinvested in a stock that appreciated more than AAPL over the last 6 years. Burry was an early investor in GameStop and did quite well...but not as well as he could have. Michael Burry, The Hedge Fund Genius Who Started GameStop’s 4,000% Rise, Sold Before Its Reddit Surge=== Michael Burry, the hedge fund investor who built a massive position in GameStop before it became a meme stock on Reddit and skyrocketed, sold his entire stake in late 2020. The stock sales mean Burry missed out on a Reddit-fueled 2,000% surge in the video game retailer at one point in 2021, which would have made him over $1 billion.
Had Burry held onto his maximum holding of 3.4 million shares, they’d have been worth over $1.5 billion at GameStop’s Reddit-inspired 2,000%-plus surge in 2021. Burry, however, seems to have been investing on valuation and fundamentals, instead of a squeeze organized on social media by an army of investors with “diamond hands.”
At GameStop’s Reddit-fueled high of $483, Burry’s maximum holding could have been worth over $1.5 billion.
Instead of billions, however, Burry looks like he may have made about $100 million on GameStop. In the fourth quarter, GameStop traded between $10 a share and $20, over five times Burry’s cost at their highs. ===
GameStop closed today at $91.80. So his timing with shorting AAPL earlier this year was a good financial move on his part...but he's missed out a few times by selling too soon. I wonder what his early investments in AAPL would be worth today, if he'd just held his AAPL shares since 1999? 😎
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 16, 2022 16:58:34 GMT -8
Very interesting, luckychoices!
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Post by hledgard on May 16, 2022 17:46:36 GMT -8
Very interesting, luckychoices! Indeed. Thoughtful analysis. Thanks Luckychoices !
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Post by kpas1 on May 16, 2022 18:47:31 GMT -8
Remember that deep in the money "put wall" at $185 that PED noticed?: linkThose 20,000 contracts were written (and purchased) on 4/4 for $10 when AAPL was at $175. They were closed out on 5/9 for $31 when AAPL was at $153. I reckon that was a $40M profit on a $20M bet. Looks kinda like the positions Burry was taking. As others noted, you don't know how those positions were hedged or paired with something else.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 16, 2022 22:06:02 GMT -8
I wonder what his early investments in AAPL would be worth today, if he'd just held his AAPL shares since 1999? 😎 Hi archibaldtuttle! Thanks for your original post about Michael Burry's AAPL shorts. I hadn't heard of him(no surprise), but after reading your post was really curious about how he's been doing in the market over the last 20 or so years. I couldn't help but wonder how well Burry would have done if he'd just bought shares of AAPL back in 1999 when he "trumpeted Apple as a stock worthy of Warren Buffett, and then just held the stock. My wife and I bought 236 shares of AAPL on 12/22/00 for $3,519.10 which works out to about $14.91/share. I didn't know the share price during the time Burry invested, so I just calculated that he bought $500,000 worth of AAPL on 12/22/00 and came out with 33,534.5 shares. After the 2-1 split in 2005, the 7-1 split in 2014 and the 4-1 split in 2020, he'd now have 1,877,934.3 shares worth about $273,314,553.99. I do remember reading that his *estimated* net worth is $300 Million, so perhaps he would have done pretty well as just another AAPL Long. 😎
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