Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 17, 2022 2:02:56 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 17, 2022 2:31:15 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 17, 2022 2:37:50 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on May 17, 2022 5:22:26 GMT -8
The S&P 500 dropped approximately 50 percent during the 2000 & 2008 stock market bottoms. Will it drop that much this time ? Only the shadow knows. Last years high was approximately 4700 and today we sit at around 4000.
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Post by zebrum on May 17, 2022 6:00:10 GMT -8
The bounce worries me, would prefer a couple weeks of flatness after this massive crash
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on May 17, 2022 6:31:52 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 17, 2022 6:43:03 GMT -8
Sounds like something that would work really well with AR glasses. Maybe Apple should look in to AR Glasses.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 17, 2022 7:08:06 GMT -8
The S&P 500 dropped approximately 50 percent during the 2000 & 2008 stock market bottoms. Will it drop that much this time ? Only the shadow knows. Last years high was approximately 4700 and today we sit at around 4000. Not all dips/corrections/falls/crashes are the same. Both of those were bubbly tops, especially in tech in 2000 and housing in 2008. While prices were up this time, was there something at a bubblieness level, especially on par with those 2 big ones? And then there is employment. In both of those, employment was down dramatically. But so far, the employment cycle is great. "This time is different!", in some ways. There's still a low somewhere. But the conditions, which include some things that the other times didn't have, don't really point to as extreme of a low since we didn't see as extreme of a high and part of this is self-inflicted while trying to battle high inflation and yet aim for a soft landing.
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Post by silkstone on May 17, 2022 7:56:44 GMT -8
The S&P 500 dropped approximately 50 percent during the 2000 & 2008 stock market bottoms. Will it drop that much this time ? Only the shadow knows. Last years high was approximately 4700 and today we sit at around 4000. Not all dips/corrections/falls/crashes are the same. Both of those were bubbly tops, especially in tech in 2000 and housing in 2008. While prices were up this time, was there something at a bubblieness level, especially on par with those 2 big ones? And then there is employment. In both of those, employment was down dramatically. But so far, the employment cycle is great. "This time is different!", in some ways. There's still a low somewhere. But the conditions, which include some things that the other times didn't have, don't really point to as extreme of a low since we didn't see as extreme of a high and part of this is self-inflicted while trying to battle high inflation and yet aim for a soft landing. Yes but the conditions I’m looking at as red flags are war in Ukraine with potential to break out, supply chain disruption with no near term solution, multiple rate hikes on horizon, record inflation, oil prices up, etc. I’m an optimist but it ain’t looking great imo. Apple will be fine in the long run.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on May 17, 2022 8:41:53 GMT -8
Not all dips/corrections/falls/crashes are the same. Both of those were bubbly tops, especially in tech in 2000 and housing in 2008. While prices were up this time, was there something at a bubblieness level, especially on par with those 2 big ones? And then there is employment. In both of those, employment was down dramatically. But so far, the employment cycle is great. "This time is different!", in some ways. There's still a low somewhere. But the conditions, which include some things that the other times didn't have, don't really point to as extreme of a low since we didn't see as extreme of a high and part of this is self-inflicted while trying to battle high inflation and yet aim for a soft landing. Yes but the conditions I’m looking at as red flags are war in Ukraine with potential to break out, supply chain disruption with no near term solution, multiple rate hikes on horizon, record inflation, oil prices up, etc. I’m an optimist but it ain’t looking great imo. Apple will be fine in the long run. Fair enough. There is a huge difference between the 19.9% drop the S&P saw from peak to trough this time so far, and the 50% drops you are stating from the big crashes of the last 25 years, including "the great recession". That leave plenty of downside if things do get worse, even if they don't touch the 50% range. Thanks for the reminder.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 17, 2022 11:49:50 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
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Post by Ted on May 17, 2022 16:31:05 GMT -8
Retaining talent is key, and compromise is part of any good relationship, but way to go in framing this as a divisive, culture-war issue.
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 17, 2022 17:22:57 GMT -8
Retaining talent is key, and compromise is part of any good relationship, but way to go in framing this as a divisive, culture-war issue. In my field of work (IT Security), the market is so hot, that any place that even talks about getting everyone back in to the office full time will lose people. What I doesn't really need to be done in the office. Not true for all jobs, or all areas, but for me if my company was to say come back in full time, I'd look at the 3-4 different jobs that come my way every day.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 18, 2022 7:28:51 GMT -8
Retaining talent is key, and compromise is part of any good relationship, but way to go in framing this as a divisive, culture-war issue. I said nothing about culture war. That is your political projection. I meant Apple's workplace culture, duh.
So Tim Cook is super awesome infallible guy anointed by Steve Jobs, but he's wrong and the employees are right on what will make Apple the best company on earth? As a 25-year professor who has seen the products of our high schools, you definitely don't get the most out of people by asking less of them. You get the best from people by holding them to high standards. I'm tired of this weak appeal to "talent." Give me people who are eager to come to work at the world's greatest company. Those that want to stay home are not the most valuable. I am 100% certain the Steve would feel this way. Tim does too, but he's fighting a PR battle and he's not leading.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on May 18, 2022 7:31:57 GMT -8
Retaining talent is key, and compromise is part of any good relationship, but way to go in framing this as a divisive, culture-war issue. In my field of work (IT Security), the market is so hot, that any place that even talks about getting everyone back in to the office full time will lose people. What I doesn't really need to be done in the office. Not true for all jobs, or all areas, but for me if my company was to say come back in full time, I'd look at the 3-4 different jobs that come my way every day. IMO, those who took advantage of employers and thought that they were entitled to sit home in their underwear won't be forgotten when the economy returns to normal. I'm sure Tim has a running list of those who were pulling the Apple cart, and those who wanted to ride in it. A reckoning will come eventually. Personally I am more than eager to go back to onground work.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
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Post by Ted on May 18, 2022 8:21:13 GMT -8
Retaining talent is key, and compromise is part of any good relationship, but way to go in framing this as a divisive, culture-war issue. I said nothing about culture war. That is your political projection. I meant Apple's workplace culture, duh.
So Tim Cook is super awesome infallible guy anointed by Steve Jobs, but he's wrong and the employees are right on what will make Apple the best company on earth? As a 25-year professor who has seen the products of our high schools, you definitely don't get the most out of people by asking less of them. You get the best from people by holding them to high standards. I'm tired of this weak appeal to "talent." Give me people who are eager to come to work at the world's greatest company. Those that want to stay home are not the most valuable. I am 100% certain the Steve would feel this way. Tim does too, but he's fighting a PR battle and he's not leading.
JD, as the board's most frequent right-wing commentator, don't be surprised if your posts get misinterpreted when you use politically fraught terms like 'entitled snowflakes,' especially in the context of that entire post. Duh. Your professor's attitude re: talent doesn't really apply in Silicon Valley where a (possibly) brilliant disgruntled worker can quit and easily find work across the street at Google, FB, eBay, etc. www.ped30.com/2022/05/18/apple-google-ian-goodfellow/ See this story of Apple being inflexible and losing one of its best...
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 18, 2022 9:10:42 GMT -8
In my field of work (IT Security), the market is so hot, that any place that even talks about getting everyone back in to the office full time will lose people. What I doesn't really need to be done in the office. Not true for all jobs, or all areas, but for me if my company was to say come back in full time, I'd look at the 3-4 different jobs that come my way every day. IMO, those who took advantage of employers and thought that they were entitled to sit home in their underwear won't be forgotten when the economy returns to normal. I'm sure Tim has a running list of those who were pulling the Apple cart, and those who wanted to ride in it. A reckoning will come eventually. Personally I am more than eager to go back to onground work. You take it as "taking advantage of employers", I see it as a changing workforce landscape. What I see is that the workforce, specifically for "knowledge workers", is now even more mobile then before. I actually just took another job. The company is in a different city, but I will continue to work from home. I may go in eventually, but only because I think it would be good to meet them. Even in that city, they're working from home.
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 18, 2022 11:45:26 GMT -8
IMO, those who took advantage of employers and thought that they were entitled to sit home in their underwear won't be forgotten when the economy returns to normal. I'm sure Tim has a running list of those who were pulling the Apple cart, and those who wanted to ride in it. A reckoning will come eventually. Personally I am more than eager to go back to onground work. You take it as "taking advantage of employers", I see it as a changing workforce landscape. What I see is that the workforce, specifically for "knowledge workers", is now even more mobile then before. I actually just took another job. The company is in a different city, but I will continue to work from home. I may go in eventually, but only because I think it would be good to meet them. Even in that city, they're working from home. Also, what do you care what the employees are wearing? (as long as the camera is off). As long as the work is getting done, it's none of your business what the employees wear. It would be like expecting professors to wear bow-ties when teaching.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on May 21, 2022 9:37:56 GMT -8
In my field of work (IT Security), the market is so hot, that any place that even talks about getting everyone back in to the office full time will lose people. What I doesn't really need to be done in the office. Not true for all jobs, or all areas, but for me if my company was to say come back in full time, I'd look at the 3-4 different jobs that come my way every day. IMO, those who took advantage of employers and thought that they were entitled to sit home in their underwear won't be forgotten when the economy returns to normal. I'm sure Tim has a running list of those who were pulling the Apple cart, and those who wanted to ride in it. A reckoning will come eventually. Personally I am more than eager to go back to onground work. I agree. Unless they were originally hired as a stay at home employee, tell them get off their lazy tails, groom themselves, dress appropriately, and get back to the location where their jobs were when they were hired. There was a reason, when they were hired, that their presence was required at the job, and if they can't make it, let them go. The reason for the disruption, is mostly over. I guess being an adult is just not in vogue anymore, is it?
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