Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 18, 2022 1:42:07 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 18, 2022 2:01:42 GMT -8
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 18, 2022 6:10:26 GMT -8
Stories change as sentiment changes. It used to be (1-3 months ago, especially 6-9+ months ago) that the mix was closer to 90% bullish, 10% bearish. And those bearish were often the permabears or those looking to make a name for themselves ("correctly foresaw the fall in 20xx", guess it enough and you'll eventually get it right).
Now, just a few months later, it's more like 50/50 as people have absorbed that there is at least a downturn. Some, including me, still hope for things to kick back up. But what would the reasoning behind that be? The Fed is working on making a meaningful change to the interest rates, and even if they are much lower than the longer term average, it's still a quick change. With those kicking in, even if the other major problems for the market went away, things wouldn't likely shoot back up to their highs.
None of that is Apple specific. Due to that, unless there is outside influence on AAPL, I'd imagine if the market recovers a little we're only looking at the 150's or maybe 160's. Even if outside issues end and oil/energy moves down significantly, the rate increases would put a cap on the immediate upside.
There are lots of stories to be written, and lots of potential downside if this happens, or that happens. A biggie would be if employment went down. That seems unlikely in the very short term, and I talked with two people in the last month that left their former employer and started their own small business. But it's possible for that to change over 6 months or so.
We'll see. This level is still up decently from that $138.80 low that was touched. But that doesn't mean it won't be revisited or that it will hold. Even the optimistic should realize there is potential on the downside in the short to medium term.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on May 18, 2022 7:05:20 GMT -8
When was the last time aapl had 8 down weeks in a row?
I agree 4aapl — I think the only thing that will turn the market around significantly is a signal that inflation is dropping and the Fed is done raising interest rates. Which won’t happen until next year IMO and will probably come with a recession.
|
|
|
Post by hyci004 on May 18, 2022 8:11:41 GMT -8
AAPL was down for 8 straight weeks from 10/05/2018 to 11/23/2018.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on May 18, 2022 11:07:07 GMT -8
Looks like one of Dow's worst days in history. This will make 4 in the current #2 covid crash/ BA is just above its Covid crash at 120 or so. was in the 400's before the crash. Got back to 270. We are reaching an all time sentiment low. This could make for a strong rebound once it bottoms. But there is the rub.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 18, 2022 11:33:28 GMT -8
Looks like one of Dow's worst days in history. This will make 4 in the current #2 covid crash/ BA is just above its Covid crash at 120 or so. was in the 400's before the crash. Got back to 270. We are reaching an all time sentiment low. This could make for a strong rebound once it bottoms. But there is the rub. Why would you want to look at a point loss instead of a percentage loss? It's more in absolute dollars, but on investments I am worried more about a 10% loss even if it was when I had less invested, than a 5% loss now on a much larger value.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on May 18, 2022 11:41:29 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on May 18, 2022 11:43:42 GMT -8
Looks like one of Dow's worst days in history. This will make 4 in the current #2 covid crash/ BA is just above its Covid crash at 120 or so. was in the 400's before the crash. Got back to 270. We are reaching an all time sentiment low. This could make for a strong rebound once it bottoms. But there is the rub. Why would you want to look at a point loss instead of a percentage loss? It's more in absolute dollars, but on investments I am more worried more about a 10% loss even if it was when I had less invested, than a 5% loss now on a much larger value. You're right. Doesn't even rank in the top 20 by percentage. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 18, 2022 11:50:55 GMT -8
Bought a couple shares. Really, not much more than that, just using up free cash in some various IRAs, and accidentally bought 6 more shares in my main account when I thought I was working in a small IRA.
All at roughly $141, though one account had just a little free money in it, so I put in a low order on that one down at $138.xx. Maybe it will fill in extended hours, or first thing tomorrow. It was the difference between buying only 2 shares, or going big and buying 3!
Big spending going on here! But at an extra 5% off, this seems as good of time as any when looking at the longer to very long term.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 18, 2022 11:57:01 GMT -8
I found this article interesting today, where investors are bearish but consumers are still a little spend-happy. finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-arent-acting-as-gloomy-as-they-feel-140911629.htmlPart of it could be the specifics. Spending on cars, where inventory might be increasing just enough for people to finally get their hands on something they have been wanting, isn't the best comparison. When we bought ours, only available when someone stepped away from the preorder and not exactly what we would order but close enough, we were told to place a new order it would be 6-9 months. Restaurants, OTOH, are the affordable luxury and should have some pent up demand after many people holding back during previous covid times. So it might not be the best comparison either. Still, the overall is that spending is up, though people are worried about the future. Which makes sense. The market is down but holding. A spike down at opening could get the S&P down to a 20% decline, at 3854. Looks like that would take a little more than a 3% decline from here. Instead throw a 5% decline at it, and then a recovery, and we could call in a potential low. But that would be too easy, so it probably won't fold out like that. Oh well. If looking to buy, decide your levels. It's been ages since I've bought bullish calls or spreads, but somewhere near here is likely a good point.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on May 18, 2022 12:03:11 GMT -8
Good question. At 1161 tenth worst point drop. As sentiment influencers I believe the absolute # worries people more than the %. Just a personal opinion. Nothing definite. Since we appear to be heading towards a bottom on all sentiment indicators before this titanic makes the turn, sentiment is worth watching.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 18, 2022 14:22:48 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 18, 2022 14:32:13 GMT -8
|
|