Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 19, 2022 1:39:27 GMT -8
Good morning. Once again we have a red pre-market. It looks like the race to find the bottom may continue today. Remember that thing about dark clouds and silver lining’s.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 19, 2022 3:11:57 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by ericinaustin on May 19, 2022 3:39:24 GMT -8
Ok, it’s time to search the couch cushions, dump the change jar
Buying aapl this week as hard as I can.
Like taking candy from a Wall Street pundant.
Eric in Austin
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on May 19, 2022 8:08:05 GMT -8
If you like it at 138, you’ll love it at 128 or 118. (Hopefully not, but very possible)
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 19, 2022 8:33:54 GMT -8
If you like it at 138, you’ll love it at 128 or 118. (Hopefully not, but very possible) I’m guessing that it is very likely. I think that the market is looking for any sign of a reduction in decline. The next question is when it does turn around will it be a quick continuous change or settle in and generate a good base?
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 19, 2022 8:38:41 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 19, 2022 9:43:59 GMT -8
If you like it at 138, you’ll love it at 128 or 118. (Hopefully not, but very possible) Look, I get that you enjoy being negative. But don’t you think it is a little much to be quasi-mocking someone for their decision to buy during this downturn?
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on May 19, 2022 10:01:18 GMT -8
"Consumers didn’t purchase Apple products during the pandemic simply because they were “flush” with cash. " My only concern with this is that many people who were unemployed got 600 a week plus their unemployment money. They made much more than when they were working. This was a constant theme in CA, and a constant complaint of those working on the borderline of poverty. Of course becoming unemployed when it is financially beneficial is pretty easy. Have seen no anlaysis of how this effected the economy or Apple? Curiously this doesn't seem to have benefited the incumbent party.
The spending on the streaming services seemed to reflect those on the low end flush living a slightly better life with more to watch, now same are cutting back. I think its good the less expensive iPhone is out there. I like to see less expensive bundles for Apple's "services". And a chance now to buy some real movies and tv for Apple TV+!
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 19, 2022 10:24:02 GMT -8
"Consumers didn’t purchase Apple products during the pandemic simply because they were “flush” with cash. " My only concern with this is that many people who were unemployed got 600 a week plus their unemployment money. They made much more than when they were working. This was a constant theme in CA, and a constant complaint of those working on the borderline of poverty. How concerned are you about purchases made 2 years ago, especially if your focus is on a financial demographic that is often presumed to be underrepresented in Apple products (see comparisons of iOS users vs Android users). (I believe articles at the time talked about the amped-up unemployment benefits being equivalent to something around $18-20/hr, so 36-40k per year if talking 40 hrs/week, 50 weeks per year) OTOH, If these benefits or something else caused extra purchases from a group that Apple normally does not have as many purchases, there should still be some stickiness come upgrade time. Maybe it is a lower number. But all of this takes a lot of guessing and grasping at assumptions, which may or may not be true. A friend of ours that is paid less than $20/hr just upgraded her 8+ to a 13 pro. That was a longer cycle than most, she said 5.5 years and that the battery wasn't working as well. But she uses it all the time, basically as her computer. Our town is not necessarily the best way to compare, but it is interesting to go to a performance at the elementary school and see what phones are used to take pictures and videos. If you have a reason to go to a school performance (see a school play, go to a band performance, etc), sit towards the back and see what phones are used. It might reset notions you have. (EDIT: While I wasn't clear about it, our medium housing price is above $3M, but we also have over 50% of the kids on free and reduced lunch plans, in normal times. There are a couple private schools, so the elementary school isn't a representation of every single family. But it is a good showing of say 75% of the families in our town. And yes, people taking pictures or videos is an easy way to glimpse the phone or tablet they are using.) Things will come around at some point. AAPL had recent days where it outperformed, and now it is having some that are underperforming. Maybe it goes even lower? Or maybe this is a good price. It's hard to know for certain, but buying shares for around 25% off the ATH, if things haven't meaningfully changed with the company, seems decent. Some short to medium term things have changed since the ATH, but from a longer term basis things really haven't changed.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on May 19, 2022 11:08:00 GMT -8
If you like it at 138, you’ll love it at 128 or 118. (Hopefully not, but very possible) Look, I get that you enjoy being negative. But don’t you think it is a little much to be quasi-mocking someone for their decision to buy during this downturn? I don’t like being negative. Despite selling some in January, I also have lost 2M in paper gains since then on my remaining holdings. But I think it’s valuable to have an open discussion of the risks. I’ve been attacked for “being negative” since before the downturn. What value is this community if only positive comments are welcome? Do you want groupthink? Talking about the potential risks is important for an investment community.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 19, 2022 11:12:21 GMT -8
An open discussion is one thing, and no I don’t want group think. But making fun or mocking someone’s decision to buy now, doesn’t qualify as value-add. That is how your post comes across.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on May 19, 2022 11:25:33 GMT -8
Well, a couple months ago I said the same thing about 166 and 156. If people had opened their mind to the possibility of further drops, and sold instead of buying, they might be happier now.
If I had listened to myself and sold instead of holding I might be happier now… at a certain point talking to a group of people who are always buying becomes more of a liability than an asset.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 19, 2022 11:47:05 GMT -8
Well, a couple months ago I said the same thing about 166 and 156. If people had opened their mind to the possibility of further drops, and sold instead of buying, they might be happier now. If I had listened to myself and sold instead of holding I might be happier now… at a certain point talking to a group of people who are always buying becomes more of a liability than an asset. You seem to have this desire to be recognized for being right. What about all the times people have been screaming sell when that was a mistake. What is right for you doesn’t make it right for everyone else. I am not taking a seven figure tax hit by selling now. I think you need to ease up on wanting to be seen as some kind of guru. Pointing out ever single downturn on every single day when they happen is of zero value to lots of us. Me included. You actually think we are dumb enough not to recognize that downside was possible back at 155-160? Cmon.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on May 19, 2022 12:06:59 GMT -8
I don’t care if you disagree I just don’t want to be snapped at for posting my thoughts.
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on May 19, 2022 12:29:04 GMT -8
I don’t care if you disagree I just don’t want to be snapped at for posting my thoughts. I ran into the same issue about a month ago when I warned an online community of fellow artists that there was a possibility of a downturn coming and that everyone should prepare for that possibility in terms of expenditures and psychology. Nobody wanted to hear it, and I was screeched at that a downturn wouldn't affect billionaires (well, yeah, but they aren't our market) and someone else told the administrator "to get my butt out of there." Nothing like a bit of a warning to stir up people. I found the same reaction just over two years ago when I warned a group of artists that art shows would be cancelled that year, and to be prepared. A lot of the screechers stayed afloat only with government grants. The old saying, "don't shoot the messenger" comes to mind.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 19, 2022 12:56:12 GMT -8
Well, a couple months ago I said the same thing about 166 and 156. If people had opened their mind to the possibility of further drops, and sold instead of buying, they might be happier now. If I had listened to myself and sold instead of holding I might be happier now… at a certain point talking to a group of people who are always buying becomes more of a liability than an asset. You seem to have this desire to be recognized for being right. That's strange, I thank that most people want to be recognized as being right. Don't you? And what about those times when the screaming was to buy, and was also a mistake. Timing is everything. We are all responsible for the choices we make, right or wrong. I do most of my trading in my IRA. This is a forum, it's designed for conversation. I like guru's. A one sided conversation conveys little and becomes boring. Confirmation bias. Oh, and AAPL was down today. Okay, did you act on it? I think that there are many here that enjoy archibauldtuttles posts, I know that I do and I suspect that you may also, it's that internal conflict that's generated that can be rough. Thanks Lstream, I enjoyed that. Your turn.
|
|
|
Post by aaplsauce on May 19, 2022 13:15:01 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 19, 2022 13:57:40 GMT -8
You seem to have this desire to be recognized for being right. That's strange, I thank that most people want to be recognized as being right. Don't you? And what about those times when the screaming was to buy, and was also a mistake. Timing is everything. We are all responsible for the choices we make, right or wrong. I do most of my trading in my IRA. This is a forum, it's designed for conversation. I like guru's. A one sided conversation conveys little and becomes boring. Confirmation bias. Oh, and AAPL was down today. Okay, did you act on it?I think that there are many here that enjoy archibauldtuttles posts, I know that I do and I suspect that you may also, it's that internal conflict that's generated that can be rough. Thanks Lstream, I enjoyed that. Your turn. I am not a trader, so no I never acted on it. I don’t try to time markets. And I don’t believe in TA, which is another reason I don’t try to time markets. I buy and hold. Which I believe is best for me. If I had tried to time, after holding for 20 years it would have been a massive mistake. So I am not a believer that timing is everything. I have done some selling recently to build up a small cash reserve to avoid the need to do any selling for a few months. Apple is kind of my bank. Unfortunately Apple is not in my tax sheltered account. Called an RSP up here. What is in that account is some Canadian energy stocks that I bought last year. Which have almost tripled. Which is counterbalancing some of the carnage that high energy prices are causing. These companies are cash machines right now, and are starting to pay serious dividends. Now that investment needs to be timed to some degree given the volatility of energy prices. ps - thanks for all your contributions here. Much appreciated
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 19, 2022 14:09:20 GMT -8
It's good to have multiple opinions on things. I normally try to see the various options out there, while trying to put some sort of probability on it. While there is always some probability of a dive, and I consider that, I have no problem saying that some people saw this dive better than I did.
I mean, if we all had perfect foresight, we would have sold everything at 182, and possibly have bought back today at 137. The difference in that would have paid all of the taxes and more, for most people. Or in a tax advantaged account, you'd now have an extra third of shares. Sounds great!
It is tough being down 25% this quickly, just as at the end of August in 2019 it was tough not to be giddy. Many of us are down 6, 7 or 8 figures, and I think one or two people on this board might even be down as much as 9 figures.
OTOH, AAPL has seen even more severe drops in the past, on several different occasions. The worst in my memory was September of 2000, but that was from very bubbly territory.
Each time is different. Share thoughts, even if it is of more negative moves. But keep in mind that everyone here has taken a hit. Putting in your personal probabilities (10% chance of 128 within 3 months if things go bad for the whole market or Apple announces something bad?) helps put your perspective in perspective, especially if there is some upside too (20% chance of 168 within 3 months).
Things could be better. Things could be worse. The last week has changed sentiment significantly, both here and seemingly for the whole market.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 19, 2022 14:16:13 GMT -8
Unfortunately Apple is not in my tax sheltered account. Called an RSP up here. What is in that account is some Canadian energy stocks that I bought last year. Which have almost tripled. Which is counterbalancing some of the carnage that high energy prices are causing. These companies are cash machines right now, and are starting to pay serious dividends. Now that investment needs to be timed to some degree given the volatility of energy prices. Would now be a good time to sell the energy companies, and buy something else. Maybe AAPL, but it could also be a wide index that you want to keep around for a while. Just a thought. I have to do something similar. In a very old account somewhere I think we will have a split in cash equivalent, that my wife set up long before we married. Now would be a great time to move that over into something, even if it's just the Nasdaq. This isn't likely the exact bottom and I wouldn't be worried about trying to hit that. But if I'm moving it into something that is 25-30% off, using funds that are 0-10% off, and wanting to make this exchange at some point, it doesn't much matter. Like Lucky points out, AAPL is still up YOY. And if that doesn't hold, then we always have longer ranges to compare to. The 10 year is just amazing, and don't get me started on the nearly 25 year chart
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 529
Member is Online
|
Post by coma on May 19, 2022 15:36:30 GMT -8
Like Lucky points out, AAPL is still up YOY. And if that doesn't hold, then we always have longer ranges to compare to. The 10 year is just amazing, and don't get me started on the nearly 25 year chart The 22 year chart works for me . . .
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 19, 2022 17:07:55 GMT -8
I don’t think so. The small Canadian energy companies are still an asset that is not very popular as an investment class. They got killed in the downturn, and are still shunned for the most part. They have P/E ratios in the 4-6 range. One of them has a price to sales ratio of about 1.
A lot of this depends on your POV on where the price of oil is going. You will hear arguments on both sides on that one.
My current belief is that I can get a 3x or 4x on these. Then there is the dividend picture. These companies got highly leveraged during the oil price crash. Now they are buying down debt fast. And in some cases, restarting dividends. Which they can afford to do with $50 oil. One of them declared an 8% dividend a couple of weeks ago. Stock popped 17% that day. Dividend starts in June, and will be increased after another quarter. They are paying monthly. With $100 oil they are printing money.
With all that said, I am watching this carefully. Quite volatile.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on May 19, 2022 17:36:09 GMT -8
You actually think we are dumb enough not to recognize that downside was possible back at 155-160? Cmon. It's not a matter or dumb or not. In fact, all the historical posts are here for all to see. A few weeks/month ago (in the 160s I think) we had a long discussion about how low it might might go. I said it could easily go to 140 or below, others thought there's no way it'll break below 150. And at least one person said if the P/E contracts to something like 10 years ago, it could drop below 100. Today I purchased some BCS 90-120. Usually I purchase BCS when I judge them "safe" and at about a 50% potential return at expiry. So I think that by mid-2023, 120 will be relatively safe. I only bought a few because I think there is still a good possibility of some further declines, and I will increase the size of the position at that time. I also have to keep a LOT of cash available because there is always the possibility of being assigned on some of the many puts that I've sold in recent years. Most of the time they expire worthless, but who knows? I've only been assigned on puts once, and that was kind of on purpose because I really intended to buy shares, I just found a way to do so at a discount (I got the idea from Apple, when they made a deal with a large investment bank to do so for them in order to get a somewhat better price for their ongoing buyback program at the time). Right now I have sold puts at strike prices between 100 and 140 with various expiration dates out to June '24. I mean seriously, if someone is willing to buy stock now at 137, wouldn't they (shouldn't they) be willing to sell a Jun '24 100 put for $8? Worst that happens is that they are forced to buy the stock for a net price of $92 ... or if not, they just keep the $8 and move on to the next thing.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on May 19, 2022 18:00:30 GMT -8
Like Lucky points out, AAPL is still up YOY. And if that doesn't hold, then we always have longer ranges to compare to. The 10 year is just amazing, and don't get me started on the nearly 25 year chart The 22 year chart works for me . . . So today AAPL closed at $137.35...too bad it didn't hit that the day dividends were paid. But today's exactly 14 years since I retired...and AAPL finished up 10% since a year ago, 05/19/21. Not the best ever but not the worst either. Just check the table below. Yes, AAPL is down -24.5% YTD, but we still have a little over 6 months to go until 2023, so a lot can happen...hopefully in a positive direction. In any case, today I bought 5 whole shares of AAPL with dividends from some stock left me by my parents. I always use any dividends from those shares to buy more AAPL and today seemed like a good day to buy. Hopefully, that won't cause the share price to drop more tomorrow. 😁 For the long-term buy-and-hold AAPL investors on AFB, just take a look at the table below and try to put that -24.5% YTD in perspective with the phenomenal growth we've seen over the last 20+ years. Cheers to the AAPL Longs! 😎
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on May 19, 2022 19:51:59 GMT -8
One technical indicator I’ve noticed in the last several years… when things get tense enough on this board for people to be fighting* it’s usually a sign that the bottom is near. 🤪
*fighting about AAPL and the market. Fighting about politics is another thing all together, with no predictive value.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 20, 2022 3:42:07 GMT -8
I am not a trader, so no I never acted on it. I don’t try to time markets. And I don’t believe in TA, which is another reason I don’t try to time markets. I buy and hold. Which I believe is best for me. If I had tried to time, after holding for 20 years it would have been a massive mistake. So I am not a believer that timing is everything. I have done some selling recently to build up a small cash reserve to avoid the need to do any selling for a few months. Apple is kind of my bank. Unfortunately Apple is not in my tax sheltered account. Called an RSP up here. What is in that account is some Canadian energy stocks that I bought last year. Which have almost tripled. Which is counterbalancing some of the carnage that high energy prices are causing. These companies are cash machines right now, and are starting to pay serious dividends. Now that investment needs to be timed to some degree given the volatility of energy prices. ps - thanks for all your contributions here. Much appreciated Thank you Lstream for your contributions. I may not always agree or understand, but I do value your opinion. Each of us here come from different backgrounds and have a lifetime of different experiences that has shaped our actions and reasoning. We all walk our own paths.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 20, 2022 7:50:27 GMT -8
One technical indicator I’ve noticed in the last several years… when things get tense enough on this board for people to be fighting* it’s usually a sign that the bottom is near. 🤪 *fighting about AAPL and the market. Fighting about politics is another thing all together, with no predictive value. There's the car-talk on the upside, which can be considered any big-ticket items that you wouldn't normally buy. On the downside, it sounds like this is the "stress-test". Like other stresses in life, different people act different ways. Some manage to package it and put it aside. Some get humorous. Some go super-negative. And some try to grasp on to the positive, the hopeful light at the end of the tunnel. We're not, as a group, completely immune to these things. The difference is that most of us have seen this a time or two before and held through, and so even if it's not the most pleasant time, we're less likely to react to it. (EDIT: By selling when already down significantly) I hope the Ukraine/Russia war can end, which will also help energy, and the primary hope there is for their own benefit. But it will benefit the global and US market and economy too. Even though I'm not that worried longer term, this "stress-test" affected me some this week, especially when combined with outside stressors. Like the aspens in our yard vs a neighbor across the street, I figure we are about 2 weeks behind. 3 weeks of elevated stress for the masses seems like it should be making a dent.
|
|
platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
|
Post by platon on May 21, 2022 11:06:13 GMT -8
One technical indicator I’ve noticed in the last several years… when things get tense enough on this board for people to be fighting* it’s usually a sign that the bottom is near. 🤪 *fighting about AAPL and the market. Fighting about politics is another thing all together, with no predictive value. Let me say I really enjoy your posts. I am not a big technical guy when it comes to the markets, but I enjoy reading about technicals from a person who really seems to understand them. I think your posts indicating more downside are just as illuminating as your predictive posts on an upside, and just as interesting. Of course I am more of a buy and hold investor, but in reality that is more of a factor of me not understanding the predictive nature of charts in the same way as you do. The age old question of "are technicals predictive or self-fulfilling" always comes up, but what does it matter if it works? That is why I always like reading what the chart guys say, even if I don't act on it or completely understand it, and it seems they are right more than they are wrong. I remember the discussions that Mav, Mace and lovemyipad, and others had on the technical thread, and though most of it was over my head, I enjoyed reading it. I would also like to know, are you indicating here that politics has no affect on the market, or are you just saying that arguing about politics has no predictive value on the market. My thought has always been that excessive government spending is a cause of inflation and inflation is usually bad for the markets. Wouldn't this be an example of political actions having an adverse affect on the markets? I would also like to know if chartists ever take political actions (irrespective of party) into account in making their predictive assumptions about where the market is going to go? In other words does the current trend of rising rates figure into the technicals that a chartists uses to make their predictions? Anyway keep posting, I always read them.
|
|