Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 31, 2022 1:30:03 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 31, 2022 5:47:29 GMT -8
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 529
|
Post by coma on May 31, 2022 8:43:48 GMT -8
When Apple was just a niche computer vendor, it would have been difficult to predict the current level of world wide success. I saw the writing on the wall when OSX was released and I bought the company.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 31, 2022 8:59:26 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 31, 2022 9:01:41 GMT -8
When Apple was just a niche computer vendor, it would have been difficult to predict the current level of world wide success. I saw the writing on the wall when OSX was released and I bought the company. Congratulations! That’s quite a heavy purchase.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 31, 2022 9:40:09 GMT -8
They say it's all just a made up number, since they are taking the total internet users and multiplying it by the percentage, so that each "user" is only counted once. Otherwise, how do you count someone who uses Firefox and Chrome on their computer, and Safari on their iPhone? It is interesting to look at some of the stats. If you infer that on Mobile nearly all iPhone users use Safari, then you have that the marketshare was 18% in 2017, and 24-25% now. You can do the same thing with tablets. A lot of that overall marketshare is from mobile, and I'm surprised on the desktop side that there aren't better showings for Microsoft.
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 529
|
Post by coma on May 31, 2022 9:59:51 GMT -8
I saw the writing on the wall when OSX was released and I bought the company. Congratulations! That’s quite a heavy purchase. . . . and its paid off handsomely.
|
|
SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
|
Post by SomeJuan on May 31, 2022 10:56:26 GMT -8
Hmm,
Apple has sold +/- 500 million iPads since inception, 100+ million Mac’s in the wild, and 1 billion iPhone users in the wild. I call BS on Atlas VPN peeps. I wont even include iPod touches in the following equation…
500,000,000 + 1,000,000,000 + 100,000,000 = n
Math is hard
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 31, 2022 11:15:41 GMT -8
Hmm, Apple has sold +/- 500 million iPads since inception, 100+ million Mac’s in the wild, and 1 billion iPhone users in the wild. I call BS on Atlas VPN peeps. I wont even include iPod touches in the following equation… 500,000,000 + 1,000,000,000 + 100,000,000 = n Math is hard But that's their math, that it is "internet users" not internet devices. If I use my iMac, iPad, and iPhone all in one day (or 12 month period which is what they are looking at), I'm still just one internet user. For accuracy, the question is if the metrics they are using for percentages is total web hits, or what. If I visit 100 sites in a day, and someone else only visits 10, do my visits count 10x more for figuring out the percentages? What about a bot, something like archive.org or really anything, especially those caching many sites? Does it matter if they specify they are a bot or not? Some of this is just edge case postulating, but some of it could matter. At the same time, one could look at the tablet or smartphone implied marketshare numbers and see how they compare to sales estimates or actual sales, taking into account a useful lifetime. Lots of options and possibilities for error. But we're selling page views here.
|
|
SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
|
Post by SomeJuan on May 31, 2022 11:29:02 GMT -8
4aapl,
If Atlas as a VPN provider says it is 1 billion, i am hard pressed to understand their metrics, as theoretically they can only measure their users…, and AtlasVPN as a VPN services provider is a blip on the radar of VPN offerings, i still call it fake BS, neigh… click bait.
As to ”internet users” vs “internet devices” i disagree with warm condolences…
Ymmv
EDIT…
Turns out that Atlas VPN was acquired last year by Nord, which also owns Surfshark, so definitely not a blip as i surmised, my bad.
My opinion is still valid imo, as the Nord umbrella is only measuring VPN users, a pointless argument 😔, i suspect less than 25% of “users” use VPN, pure conjecture on my part. My bad again. Posting is pointless…
|
|
|
Post by eastbaybob on May 31, 2022 15:50:57 GMT -8
When Apple was just a niche computer vendor, it would have been difficult to predict the current level of world wide success. I saw the writing on the wall when OSX was released and I bought the company. When I read that OSX was portable I knew it would be a game changer. When the share priced crashed 70% in 2000 after bad earnings I pounced and bet the ranch. I have held on to all the shares
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 31, 2022 16:27:48 GMT -8
My opinion is still valid imo, as the Nord umbrella is only measuring VPN users, a pointless argument 😔, i suspect less than 25% of “users” use VPN, pure conjecture on my part. My bad again. Posting is pointless… If your opinion is still valid, then is doesn't seem like posting is pointless. Pretty quiet day. After planting trees yesterday, I slept in much later, and was surprised to see 25M shares had traded by the time I looked, which might have been 7:45am PT. It seemed like it was going to be a higher volume day. But it worked out to be about average, with fairly standard surges in volume in the first and last 30-45 minutes. Reading a few articles here and there, I do start to wonder how much of the trading, especially in those first and last 30-45 minutes, is actual trades of AAPL vs trades in AAPL based on indexes or other funds just keeping a percentage. Still a lot of fear out there, but the market movement is showing it has let up a little. One of our local "stock guys" has a weekly article in the small paper, and he pointed out how most of the CNBC guys are bearish (sell what people are expecting/feeling), whereas he thinks this is a pretty good time to accumulate. I would have liked to see AAPL grab and hold onto 150, even if 151-152 would be better. FWIW, using ~180 as the high, 150 is only a 1/6 drop, or ~17%. And up 12-13% from the low. This might not have been the absolute low, but it seems that's often how these things work, of setting a low, recovering a decent amount, but then taking quite a while to climb that last section to the highs again. From the low, whenever that is, it seems like instead of a quick 6 month trip to the ATHs, this instead will be a 12-18-24 month ride. There's just lots of unknowns out there, and it's early in the cycle. But we'll see. If the war ended and oil partially recovered, while the US made good progress on non-energy inflation, I could see it happening quicker. Or if Apple knocked it out of the park, I like to think that could help AAPL recover quicker. It has partially, since AAPL wasn't set as far back in percentages or on the timeline as many others and the indexes. And I know there is some pent-up demand, waiting for the next products like the M2 Air, the iPhone 14, and the next Apple Watch. I don't know the exact demand, but we're likely to buy all 3. 2020 is probably a good market example, though I would stretch it out to a longer timeframe due to having multiple worries. One never knows exactly what tomorrow will bring.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on Jun 1, 2022 16:44:05 GMT -8
They say it's all just a made up number, since they are taking the total internet users and multiplying it by the percentage, so that each "user" is only counted once. Otherwise, how do you count someone who uses Firefox and Chrome on their computer, and Safari on their iPhone? It is interesting to look at some of the stats. If you infer that on Mobile nearly all iPhone users use Safari, then you have that the marketshare was 18% in 2017, and 24-25% now. You can do the same thing with tablets. A lot of that overall marketshare is from mobile, and I'm surprised on the desktop side that there aren't better showings for Microsoft. I'm not at all surprised. Literally, the first thing anyone ("anyone") does when they open their new desktop/laptop is to open Edge ... and download Chrome. Then they login to their google account so they can get all their configs, passwords, etc in Chrome. My 80+ year old parents did JUST THAT as soon as they took their new laptops (sadly Lenovo, not Apple) out of the box. My 14 year old twins did JUST THAT as soon as they opened their new laptops (sadly Dell).. I do JUST THAT whenever I configure a new PC (or Mac for that matter) for someone at home. And my IT guy at work does it by default for ALL devices he distributes. And in many cases, that is the last time they use Edge (or whatever MS calls it nowadays).
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jun 1, 2022 18:58:59 GMT -8
They say it's all just a made up number, since they are taking the total internet users and multiplying it by the percentage, so that each "user" is only counted once. Otherwise, how do you count someone who uses Firefox and Chrome on their computer, and Safari on their iPhone? It is interesting to look at some of the stats. If you infer that on Mobile nearly all iPhone users use Safari, then you have that the marketshare was 18% in 2017, and 24-25% now. You can do the same thing with tablets. A lot of that overall marketshare is from mobile, and I'm surprised on the desktop side that there aren't better showings for Microsoft. I'm not at all surprised. Literally, the first thing anyone ("anyone") does when they open their new desktop/laptop is to open Edge ... and download Chrome. Then they login to their google account so they can get all their configs, passwords, etc in Chrome. My 80+ year old parents did JUST THAT as soon as they took their new laptops (sadly Lenovo, not Apple) out of the box. My 14 year old twins did JUST THAT as soon as they opened their new laptops (sadly Dell).. I do JUST THAT whenever I configure a new PC (or Mac for that matter) for someone at home. And my IT guy at work does it by default for ALL devices he distributes. And in many cases, that is the last time they use Edge (or whatever MS calls it nowadays). Interesting. I don't think my kids did, but they are normally Mac users, and only use the PCs for school. Mostly. I guess my son has a PC laptop for school, a PC laptop from us that he used for school last year, and a PC desktop gaming rig. The relatives, including the one that works as a Security Engineer, thought having some of the kids build PCs would make them interested in security or programming. None of the girls wanted to, and the boys just want to use it for gaming, and the other boy really prefers his Playstation. Maybe next they will give them sports cars, thinking that will make them good mechanical engineers. In general, how is Firefox doing compared to Chrome these days? I just think there would be some competition, that if moving away from the default browser (Edge, or for that matter Safari) one might pick the browser that's less dependent on getting your info to sell ads. That said, I have a gmail account as my main one, after .mac/.me worried me for a bit when they went to paid for a while. Like a browser, or a cell phone carrier, you often just go with what you are familiar with, unless there is a good reason to change. (EDIT: Ok, I had to ask my son, since he's in high school and all. He said he uses Chrome on all 3 pc's, even though he uses different accounts on each, but the reasoning was interesting. "Firefox is just strange. And Edge, it showed me news every day." Ahhhh, kids.)
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on Jun 1, 2022 20:57:16 GMT -8
I'm not at all surprised. Literally, the first thing anyone ("anyone") does when they open their new desktop/laptop is to open Edge ... and download Chrome. Then they login to their google account so they can get all their configs, passwords, etc in Chrome. My 80+ year old parents did JUST THAT as soon as they took their new laptops (sadly Lenovo, not Apple) out of the box. My 14 year old twins did JUST THAT as soon as they opened their new laptops (sadly Dell).. I do JUST THAT whenever I configure a new PC (or Mac for that matter) for someone at home. And my IT guy at work does it by default for ALL devices he distributes. And in many cases, that is the last time they use Edge (or whatever MS calls it nowadays). Interesting. I don't think my kids did, but they are normally Mac users, and only use the PCs for school. Mostly. I guess my son has a PC laptop for school, a PC laptop from us that he used for school last year, and a PC desktop gaming rig. The relatives, including the one that works as a Security Engineer, thought having some of the kids build PCs would make them interested in security or programming. None of the girls wanted to, and the boys just want to use it for gaming, and the other boy really prefers his Playstation. Maybe next they will give them sports cars, thinking that will make them good mechanical engineers. In general, how is Firefox doing compared to Chrome these days? I just think there would be some competition, that if moving away from the default browser (Edge, or for that matter Safari) one might pick the browser that's less dependent on getting your info to sell ads. One might SAY or think that they will pick a browser that is less ad dependent. But in real life they just use it. Because it's convenient, easy, cheap, and fast. My kids MUCH prefer macs, all the older ones use macs. But the younger ones needed PCs for school, so I bought them Dells. But almost guaranteed that they will switch to macs the minute they hit college (in about 2 years). And nobody in the house will accept anything but iPhone, they used Windows Mobile and despised it, they used Android and hated it, so now everyone is on iPhone. And we have a huge number of Apple devices in the house overall - 12 iPhones, 8 in everyday use, 4 spares/play/test/etc, 8 iPads, some school issued (I still pay for them, and sometimes they just tell the kids to keep them at the end of the year), some purchased. 3 Apple watches so far.3 macbook pro, 2 macbook air, 2 macbook. And assorted old iPods that are not in use anymore (somewhere I have a box with 10 iPod Touches in it, unless my wife already threw it out). On my macs, I always have Safari and Chrome open with lots of tabs of course. I use mostly Safari. On my PC, I use only Chrome.
|
|