Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 3, 2022 1:19:46 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 3, 2022 2:01:43 GMT -8
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Post by lifeofbrian on Jun 3, 2022 5:26:06 GMT -8
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Post by kpas1 on Jun 3, 2022 7:48:15 GMT -8
If this were Stocktwits: $AAPL WTF???
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 3, 2022 9:24:04 GMT -8
If this were Stocktwits: $AAPL WTF??? Wow, that's what '99 probably looked like, in a day trading group. Or maybe in '01, with people hoping to scrape something together again. There was enough of that outside of those groups. Dr Stoxx Trading looked hopeful. 18k subscribers, at $57/month? Even if it's half that (14 day trial), someone is making good money. Like selling jeans to the miners. I bet someone could gain "followers" quick if they made all of their posts out of playdoh. Something silly and unique. Get 5% of Stoxx's subscribers, and you're making good money and can start hiring a team. Even better, make 2 accounts, one bearish and one bullish. Even if you were open about it, I "BET" you could get a bunch of subscribers. People like to hear what they feel, but sometimes they want to see the opposing view. And you'd be right in one of the accounts, with any guess. Win-win? I was hoping AAPL would have some more momentum here, and the S&P would touch 4400. But that was too much hope. Instead, we're in the dreary section of the market, crushing the unrealistic "things will fully recover in a week" thoughts that like to creep in when we have a positive day. AAPL is better than most, and not as battered over the duration. I was a little shocked when I looked at the chart yesterday, not remembering AAPL was in the high 170's at the end of March. How quickly things can change sometimes, and yet it's not much more than a blip when looking over the long term, and likely will be that way in the future too.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 3, 2022 9:38:48 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Jun 3, 2022 10:08:31 GMT -8
The only positive I can fabricate is that during uptrends Friday is a sell off day to avoid event risk on the weekends. During the crash this year often Friday was an up day.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Jun 3, 2022 10:44:32 GMT -8
If this were Stocktwits: $AAPL WTF??? Wow, that's what '99 probably looked like, in a day trading group. Or maybe in '01, with people hoping to scrape something together again. There was enough of that outside of those groups. Dr Stoxx Trading looked hopeful. 18k subscribers, at $57/month? Even if it's half that (14 day trial), someone is making good money. Like selling jeans to the miners. I bet someone could gain "followers" quick if they made all of their posts out of playdoh. Something silly and unique. Get 5% of Stoxx's subscribers, and you're making good money and can start hiring a team. Even better, make 2 accounts, one bearish and one bullish. Even if you were open about it, I "BET" you could get a bunch of subscribers. People like to hear what they feel, but sometimes they want to see the opposing view. And you'd be right in one of the accounts, with any guess. Win-win? Sometimes win-win. For example, all the online betting sites offered huge specials when they became legal in some states (not mine). So people were figuring out how to extract all the free money using the rules that you have to bet it first. Well, apparently, the easiest thing to do is to find a bet (sports teams?) and do one bet at one site, and the opposite bet at a second site. You can't lose. In this case, you can make a bearish and a bullish account, and post opposite picks. And you may end up with one of them doing really well and getting lots of subscribers. BUT, there is also the chance that you keep it up for a year or two, and have terrible results in both accounts - let's say bullish up 3% and bearish down 3% ... nobody will be very excited to subscribe to that! So not necessarily win-win, could also be lose-lose. Don't fight the fed is still alive. And now there's a new scare - China re-opening ... will consume more stuff, especially commodities ... will cause prices to rise even more ... will cause inflation for longer ... will cause fed to raise more and longer ... rinse and repeat.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 3, 2022 11:47:19 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Jun 3, 2022 11:49:32 GMT -8
Tesla Inc was down almost 9% after CEO Elon Musk, in an email to executives seen by Reuters, said he has a "super bad feeling" about the economy and needs to cut about 10% of jobs at the electric car maker.
People who buy those cars probably are not effected by economy. Also interesting how all the EVs have not lowered the price of gas.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 3, 2022 15:20:20 GMT -8
People who buy those cars probably are not effected by economy. Also interesting how all the EVs have not lowered the price of gas. Our minivan, a mid-level one, was more than some of Tesla's line. You'd have to look at the price distribution of Tesla sales to know the full mix, and like Apple that's probably something they keep private. While the average new car is $50k now, there are many EVs below that, even if you kick it up much higher by adding all the bells and whistles, like ludicrous mode. EVs are out there, and more-so in some markets than others, but they are still a small portion. I wouldn't be surprised if there has been more gas savings by hybrids in the past 10 years than EVs, at the consumer level. It's not a one-size-fits-all solution, nor does it need to be. One article today said gasoline sales are only down 5% YOY, while prices are up 50%. Maybe that is a tough compare, with more people back to on-site work and on-site education. (EDIT: Looks like the base model for Tesla is up 34% from 3 years ago, per the following article, to $47k. The Bolt (2 models) and the Leaf are down at $26.6-$28.2k. If we did more one-person commuting, or didn't need AWD for snow, we'd definitely look for an EV as one of our cars, or something like the Prime series of various Toyotas that are hybrids with a larger battery to give it more EV range. Here's a CNN article with current pricing. www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/cars/chevrolet-bolt-price-drop/index.html )
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 3, 2022 15:27:33 GMT -8
Don't fight the fed is still alive. And now there's a new scare - China re-opening ... will consume more stuff, especially commodities ... will cause prices to rise even more ... will cause inflation for longer ... will cause fed to raise more and longer ... rinse and repeat. Yep, bad is good and good is bad. Instead, if the Chinese consumer starts to worry about a recession while the rest of the world does too, it's possible to kick up production and shipping a bit, while notching down consumption at the consumer level. Getting to a supply-demand match, or even building up inventory a bit, is another way to flatten inflation. But the easy reaction is "OMG, new jobs is up more than expected, which isn't yet baked in to the fed and the market, so rates will have to go up and thus the market will go down". It continues to be chaotic. And will, giving some great opportunities, until some things change or look like they are about to change. The Russia/Ukraine war is the real issue IMO, but I hope for the end there more for Ukraine than any market stabilization it would bring, though it would help both while also helping the energy market.
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