Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jun 10, 2022 1:39:21 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jun 10, 2022 2:16:24 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jun 10, 2022 2:58:02 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jun 10, 2022 5:23:31 GMT -8
AAPL Max-Pain is at $146.00. Let’s see how that works out.
|
|
|
Post by zebrum on Jun 10, 2022 6:38:49 GMT -8
Back to the 52 week closing low of $137. But there was an intraday low of $126 so will wait to see if we go that low again before making any decisions.
edit: sorry for the $126 mistake, on 20th May thought it went that low buy my buys were $133
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 529
|
Post by coma on Jun 10, 2022 6:58:09 GMT -8
Back to the 52 week closing low of $137. But there was an intraday low of $126 so will wait to see if we go that low again before making any decisions. That $126 number is the 06/10/2021 (one year ago) high.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 10, 2022 7:53:01 GMT -8
125 was also the split price in summer 2020. Pretty sad that we’re only up 10% over nearly 2 years.
|
|
|
Post by aaplsauce on Jun 10, 2022 9:50:38 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jun 10, 2022 10:48:53 GMT -8
125 was also the split price in summer 2020. Pretty sad that we’re only up 10% over nearly 2 years. I only chart AAPL between anniversaries of my retirement date of 05/19/08...so perhaps it would take more for me to label AAPL's 2 year performance sad. For those holding AAPL over the long term, this is just taking the bad with the good, IMO. I need to sell AAPL shares *today* to pay our June 15th estimated taxes...so the timing of this recent dramatic ramp down in share price is not great. But I also have to acknowledge to myself that AAPL's remarkable performance and stock splits over the long term are the reason our estimated taxes are so painful...especially when one is required to sell shares while the share price is down. Cheers to the many AAPL Longs on AFB! 😎
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Jun 10, 2022 11:16:05 GMT -8
125 was also the split price in summer 2020. Pretty sad that we’re only up 10% over nearly 2 years. I only chart AAPL between anniversaries of my retirement date of 05/19/08...so perhaps it would take more for me to label AAPL's 2 year performance sad. For those holding AAPL over the long term, this is just taking the bad with the good, IMO. I need to sell AAPL shares *today* to pay our June 15th estimated taxes...so the timing of this recent dramatic ramp down in share price is not great. But I also have to acknowledge to myself that AAPL's remarkable performance and stock splits over the long term are the reason our estimated taxes are so painful...especially when one is required to sell shares while the share price is down. Cheers to the many AAPL Longs on AFB! 😎 <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> RMD?
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Jun 10, 2022 13:04:49 GMT -8
Dropping 200 points in 30 minutes or so almost got another top 15 drop 880. Just about 30 more points would have done 911 or so. 4 so far. 15 last covid crash. I think we may need more crashes before the bottom is struck. Unfortunately. The end of june will mark 6 months of selling.
|
|
|
Post by zebrum on Jun 10, 2022 13:20:48 GMT -8
No close rally is a good sign (except Tesla had one dammit!)
Hopefully 6months selling leads to 2 years of buying!
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jun 10, 2022 14:21:18 GMT -8
No close rally is a good sign (except Tesla had one dammit!) Hopefully 6months selling leads to 2 years of buying! That's what I was thinking. Though we're still in the "in the short term why buy now?" area. What of the problems that are working together to cause this have a finish line in sight, or even a hope of a finish line? That said, I was starting to consider buying more a few points up from here. Just a little "risk-on" position, whether straight calls, bull call spreads, or even writing some puts. Nothing crazy in quantity, but enough to put a bit more money on the table. It would be nice to see the S&P close down at least 20%, but it's hard to know if that really matters. What matters more is if some light at the end of one of these tunnels is seen, or even some hope for the end. Until then, people are just guessing, or feeling that buying here at a 20-30% discount is pretty decent. But for those trying to time it, especially if putting down serious coin, they don't want to just be guessing.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 10, 2022 15:51:30 GMT -8
125 was also the split price in summer 2020. Pretty sad that we’re only up 10% over nearly 2 years. I only chart AAPL between anniversaries of my retirement date of 05/19/08...so perhaps it would take more for me to label AAPL's 2 year performance sad. For those holding AAPL over the long term, this is just taking the bad with the good, IMO. I need to sell AAPL shares *today* to pay our June 15th estimated taxes...so the timing of this recent dramatic ramp down in share price is not great. But I also have to acknowledge to myself that AAPL's remarkable performance and stock splits over the long term are the reason our estimated taxes are so painful...especially when one is required to sell shares while the share price is down. Cheers to the many AAPL Longs on AFB! 😎 View AttachmentAll of the years in your chart (with a partial exception of 2018-2019) were during a period of loose monetary policy, where the Fed's actions were helping the market move higher. In 2018, they started to tighten rates but then left that strategy behind when markets fell and they got pressure from the Trump administration to stop. Unfortunately, 2022's stock price action has nothing to do with Apple, and everything to do with inflation and the Fed, and they're acting in a much more forceful way than they have since the 1970s. Because of high inflation, the Fed will be relentless until inflation abates, which may take a lot longer than people think. The Fed’s actions will cause a recession. And the current administration is supporting that policy, so I don't think the Fed will change course. In 2008 or 2020, the Fed used their monetary bazookas to help pull the US out of recession. But this time, they'll be the ones causing the recession on purpose, so they won't be the ones to help it end. The phrase "dont fight the Fed" was coined after 2008 to tell shorts not to oppose the Fed's efforts to revitalize the market. Now, we're going the other way... it's longs who are fighting the Fed for the next couple years. The Fed actually wants the stock market to go down, because it will have a negative "wealth effect" -- when people feel poorer, they will spend less, aggregate demand falls, putting downward pressure on inflation. All of the 2022 drop in Apple so far, from 180s to 130s, was caused by Fed / inflation bearishness, despite Apple's continued business success and EPS growth. Now, what happens next, when a recession kicks in, people lose their jobs due to layoffs, people can't afford their variable rate interest loans because of increasing interest rates? When Apple's earnings start to fall year over year? For a WAG, I could see AAPL dropping to $90/share before forming a real bottom. That's a 50% drop from peak, which is a bit better than what happened to AAPL during the 2008 recession. I think the recession to come will be not as bad as 2008. On the other hand, the Fed won't be helping stimulate the economy like they did in 2008 either... so we're in uncharted territory...
|
|
ono
Member
posted
Posts: 555
|
Post by ono on Jun 10, 2022 17:42:32 GMT -8
I appreciate the well stated reasoning. I hope it’s a shallow, and relatively short, recession. A “resolution” to the Ukrainian war? Supply chain equilibrium? Less stimulus money sloshing around?
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jun 10, 2022 18:52:39 GMT -8
I only chart AAPL between anniversaries of my retirement date of 05/19/08...so perhaps it would take more for me to label AAPL's 2 year performance sad. For those holding AAPL over the long term, this is just taking the bad with the good, IMO. I need to sell AAPL shares *today* to pay our June 15th estimated taxes...so the timing of this recent dramatic ramp down in share price is not great. But I also have to acknowledge to myself that AAPL's remarkable performance and stock splits over the long term are the reason our estimated taxes are so painful...especially when one is required to sell shares while the share price is down. Cheers to the many AAPL Longs on AFB! 😎 <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> RMD? I have a pretty scary yearly RMD, IMO, so any estimated tax payments we need to make always come from my IRA's. Since I'm required to remove shares from my IRA anyway to satisfy my RMD, I try to satisfy both needs at the same time when possible. Naturally, I always try to sell the fewest number of shares required to cover our estimated taxes but sometimes, as in this most recent case, market conditions and my own ineptness at short term forecasting often combine to produce just the opposite result. I could have sold AAPL shares yesterday at $147.95, the high of the day. Did I? Of course not...I waited to see how things would play out today and ended up selling shares at $137.58...causing me to have to sell almost 49 more shares than if I'd sold at yesterday's high. SMH So, sorry, nwjade, that's the long answer...my main purpose was to cover our estimated taxes but my RMD was certainly part of my thinking.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jun 11, 2022 2:56:49 GMT -8
All of the years in your chart (with a partial exception of 2018-2019) were during a period of loose monetary policy, where the Fed's actions were helping the market move higher. In 2018, they started to tighten rates but then left that strategy behind when markets fell and they got pressure from the Trump administration to stop. Unfortunately, 2022's stock price action has nothing to do with Apple, and everything to do with inflation and the Fed, and they're acting in a much more forceful way than they have since the 1970s. Because of high inflation, the Fed will be relentless until inflation abates, which may take a lot longer than people think. The Fed’s actions will cause a recession. And the current administration is supporting that policy, so I don't think the Fed will change course. In 2008 or 2020, the Fed used their monetary bazookas to help pull the US out of recession. But this time, they'll be the ones causing the recession on purpose, so they won't be the ones to help it end. The phrase "dont fight the Fed" was coined after 2008 to tell shorts not to oppose the Fed's efforts to revitalize the market. Now, we're going the other way... it's longs who are fighting the Fed for the next couple years. The Fed actually wants the stock market to go down, because it will have a negative "wealth effect" -- when people feel poorer, they will spend less, aggregate demand falls, putting downward pressure on inflation. All of the 2022 drop in Apple so far, from 180s to 130s, was caused by Fed / inflation bearishness, despite Apple's continued business success and EPS growth. Now, what happens next, when a recession kicks in, people lose their jobs due to layoffs, people can't afford their variable rate interest loans because of increasing interest rates? When Apple's earnings start to fall year over year? For a WAG, I could see AAPL dropping to $90/share before forming a real bottom. That's a 50% drop from peak, which is a bit better than what happened to AAPL during the 2008 recession. I think the recession to come will be not as bad as 2008. On the other hand, the Fed won't be helping stimulate the economy like they did in 2008 either... so we're in uncharted territory... Thank you archibaldtuttle for this dose of reality. We’ve been fortunate enough to have experienced a long running bull market where it’s difficult not to make money. Hopefully this recession will be short lived, but with each new world event, such as the invasion of Ukraine, the longer it lasts the greater the chances that it will intensify and spread. Not a very pretty picture, but there is always hope. “The market can stay irrational long then you can stay solvent.”
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jun 11, 2022 3:15:34 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Jun 11, 2022 11:02:45 GMT -8
Who the hell asked Apple for widgets on their lock screen?
If you ask me this is a concern. What I am seeing and feeling is feature creep. Thinks I don't want or need keep appearing after every upgrade. My choices are reset and I have to redo crap to get free of stuff I don't want. I remember office 98 turned into office 6 I believe and that was feature creep and change for the sake of change. Worst upgrade in history for me. I stopped using office eventually.
There is a whole bunch of crap on my email page on the iPad I never asked for and don't want, etc..
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Jun 11, 2022 11:05:07 GMT -8
I have a pretty scary yearly RMD, IMO, so any estimated tax payments we need to make always come from my IRA's. Since I'm required to remove shares from my IRA anyway to satisfy my RMD, I try to satisfy both needs at the same time when possible. Naturally, I always try to sell the fewest number of shares required to cover our estimated taxes but sometimes, as in this most recent case, market conditions and my own ineptness at short term forecasting often combine to produce just the opposite result. I could have sold AAPL shares yesterday at $147.95, the high of the day. Did I? Of course not...I waited to see how things would play out today and ended up selling shares at $137.58...causing me to have to sell almost 49 more shares than if I'd sold at yesterday's high. SMH So, sorry, nwjade, that's the long answer...my main purpose was to cover our estimated taxes but my RMD was certainly part of my thinking. Thanx for the reply, I'm interested in the various ways people approach satisfying annual RMD requirements.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Jun 11, 2022 11:08:06 GMT -8
After the Dows worst performance since the great depression what to say or do? Clearly all the significant indexes had jumps down, gaps. This could be a signal for an island bottom with and eventual jump up, a gap, and then the indexes take off. But when? Could be a very large island. The economy is weird with job demand high, prices going up, shortages of unimaginable stuff like parsley flakes, gas through the roof? Ukraine and these hearings are distractions from the economy that will result in unhappy people after a bit. More down for the indexes is in the cards. Don't fight the fed is the battle cry.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jun 11, 2022 15:19:26 GMT -8
There's always some features that some people use, while others find useless. In PEDs comments, that's the case for TouchID, where it didn't work right for a couple people (don't know if they ever tried to set it up again), but other people used it many times every single day. But it's the same thing for lots of items out there. What features on a newer car do you use, or don't use? What about 3 way switches in your house, or dimmer switches? Some get used a lot, but others never get used. Burners on a stove top? Some people love convection ovens, while others never use them. We paid $50 extra to go up a level on our clothes dryer, to add the steam option, which we have never used. At the same time, Apple does have to make sure to not add too much stuff just to add stuff, if it spreads things too thin, or causes problems with security or processor/memory usage. A quick way to hack a lot of people would be to make a cool widget that is useful or addictive, but has a backdoor to data or privileges.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Jun 11, 2022 18:30:59 GMT -8
I am beginning to think Apple throws too much new stuff at me. But again, I am 79 and although my field was computer science, I did not grow up with anything like iOS.
|
|