Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2022 1:19:44 GMT -8
“Monday Monday, can’t trust that day”. AAPL’s pre-market is down 3+% at the moment. Buckle up, keep your hands and feet in the car at all times. Remember that we’re looking for a bottom here, capitulation. No idea when that may be. What to Expect in the Markets Next Week
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2022 1:25:19 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2022 1:43:45 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Jun 13, 2022 3:15:46 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2022 4:22:40 GMT -8
I would like to think that Astra would have an insurance policy to cover such events, but I would hate to think what the premium might be.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jun 13, 2022 5:11:49 GMT -8
I think we're closer to the bottom than the top - just my 2 cents. time will tell - hang tight!
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coma
Member
Posts: 529
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Post by coma on Jun 13, 2022 5:56:31 GMT -8
I think we're closer to the bottom than the top - just my 2 cents. I sure hope not since some of my stock has a cost basis of 32¢.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 13, 2022 7:05:30 GMT -8
I would like to think that Astra would have an insurance policy to cover such events, but I would hate to think what the premium might be. How is it better that insurance company investors pay for the loss than Astra's? If they are too incompetent to launch satellites, let their stock and bottom line reflect that. Price discovery is a good thing.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 13, 2022 8:26:14 GMT -8
Overnight futures looking to extend the crash. I was wondering about that. This time is a little different that recent big drops (several outside issues, not just businesses and their stocks), but it's got to bottom sometime. IMO the bubbliness/frothiness was much less this time, but part of that depends on what type of companies you are looking at, as Apple is a much different company than in 2000. But to squeeze out some of the speculators to make a good bottom, there has to be some pain. This might not be it, but I could see this or a couple more down days being enough. Part will depend on what the Fed says. They don't really care directly about the stock market, but if they notice other things changing, like the fewer housing sales and prices starting to flatten (not sure how much they care directly about housing prices either, but it's likely more of a consideration than stocks), and they mention that they are noticing that, the stock market could put in an initial bottom while other things (homes, inflation) continue to go down in reaction to current and future interest rate changes. The trick may be to look at weekly or monthly changes in some of this inflation data and what feeds it. Looking at the 12 month just has so much lag. I remember this on the build up to 2008, and then the let down, in respect to housing. Take inflation at ~8.5%. Pull out the baseline target of 2%, and a slight deviation of .5%. For an example, if every month was either a 0% or a +1%, then if those 6 +1% months were all close to now, even if things went flat right now it would take 6 months until the 12 month inflation rate changes. That's a lot of lag. Given energy prices, you'd expect at least half of those to be in the last 3-6 month, and probably more. 4 in the last 6 months? And with energy prices still high, we'd still be bringing in +1% months, just for transportation costs of individuals and goods, plus production. That's a slightly simple way to look at it, but the same applies if you are talking +.4% to +.9% months to make up that 6% over the last 12. It seems like it is going to take a bit to see 12 month inflation data change in a meaningful way. Even if things have been slightly changing for a couple months, with energy high it won't be big changes. And if energy changed today, it would still take some time to work into the 12 month inflation numbers. But, if the fed is searching for hints of change, there are some out there in housing, and might be some in other areas. At some point they will see those and mention them. Maybe that is this time around, though more likely it will be a mention that they are looking for them. We'll see. Depending on their response, that could put in a relative bottom, temporary or not.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2022 8:58:40 GMT -8
52 weeks ago the share price was $127.07. Just sayin
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 13, 2022 9:25:48 GMT -8
Overnight futures looking to extend the crash. I was wondering about that. This time is a little different that recent big drops (several outside issues, not just businesses and their stocks), but it's got to bottom sometime. IMO the bubbliness/frothiness was much less this time, but part of that depends on what type of companies you are looking at, as Apple is a much different company than in 2000. But to squeeze out some of the speculators to make a good bottom, there has to be some pain. This might not be it, but I could see this or a couple more down days being enough. Part will depend on what the Fed says. They don't really care directly about the stock market, but if they notice other things changing, like the fewer housing sales and prices starting to flatten (not sure how much they care directly about housing prices either, but it's likely more of a consideration than stocks), and they mention that they are noticing that, the stock market could put in an initial bottom while other things (homes, inflation) continue to go down in reaction to current and future interest rate changes. The trick may be to look at weekly or monthly changes in some of this inflation data and what feeds it. Looking at the 12 month just has so much lag. I remember this on the build up to 2008, and then the let down, in respect to housing. Take inflation at ~8.5%. Pull out the baseline target of 2%, and a slight deviation of .5%. For an example, if every month was either a 0% or a +1%, then if those 6 +1% months were all close to now, even if things went flat right now it would take 6 months until the 12 month inflation rate changes. That's a lot of lag. Given energy prices, you'd expect at least half of those to be in the last 3-6 month, and probably more. 4 in the last 6 months? And with energy prices still high, we'd still be bringing in +1% months, just for transportation costs of individuals and goods, plus production. That's a slightly simple way to look at it, but the same applies if you are talking +.4% to +.9% months to make up that 6% over the last 12. It seems like it is going to take a bit to see 12 month inflation data change in a meaningful way. Even if things have been slightly changing for a couple months, with energy high it won't be big changes. And if energy changed today, it would still take some time to work into the 12 month inflation numbers. But, if the fed is searching for hints of change, there are some out there in housing, and might be some in other areas. At some point they will see those and mention them. Maybe that is this time around, though more likely it will be a mention that they are looking for them. We'll see. Depending on their response, that could put in a relative bottom, temporary or not. The reason this Fri/Mon selloff is so intense is that there was an acceleration in month-over-month inflation reported Friday, not a tapering off. Theoretically, the most important measures for the Fed are employment and inflation. Since employment is still relatively strong, they have all the mandate they need to raise rates hawkishly. They don’t care if the market tanks, or even housing. In fact, the stock market and housing prices tanking will help them reduce inflation, so it could be part of their goal. They won’t stop axing everything until (1) inflation starts to moderate or (2) unemployment starts to be a concern
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 13, 2022 11:36:02 GMT -8
The reason this Fri/Mon selloff is so intense is that there was an acceleration in month-over-month inflation reported Friday, not a tapering off. Theoretically, the most important measures for the Fed are employment and inflation. Since employment is still relatively strong, they have all the mandate they need to raise rates hawkishly. They don’t care if the market tanks, or even housing. In fact, the stock market and housing prices tanking will help them reduce inflation, so it could be part of their goal. They won’t stop axing everything until (1) inflation starts to moderate or (2) unemployment starts to be a concern But that month over month change was minimal, all in the same ballfield. For the 12 month, we had 8.5%, 8.3%, and now 8.6%. If the year ago month that is being erased isn't much, then the differences here aren't much. And what is the margin of error on those? I mean, we're not talking that last month the 12-month was 6, and now it's 8.6%. That would be big! Instead, it's been nearly flat over the last 3 months. People would love to see it going down, since there is so much focus on inflation right now. But there is a lot of lag in the system, and not having it go up in a meaningful way is an implied neutral or even positive. OTOH, with a big bubble things normally keep selling until all of the air is let out, with lots of focus on the negatives. It's hard to know where that is. The S&P is only down just over 20%, so while painful this isn't crushing yet on the whole index. But it would be helpful to look at the companies with little to no profit. Those are the ones that really get crushed, and if seeing some/most/all of those down 50%, that would be a better indicator than just looking at the indexes when this is a partially self-inflicted situation and job growth and unemployment are in great places. In this quest for finding employees, the hourly rates at the low end seem to be changing the most, and so things relying on cheap labor are squeezed the most. Some of the local ski resorts are raising pay to $20/hr (I think that was the Epic conglomerate), whereas recently it was at $15 and 3-5 years ago things started at $12. They have the revenue, but when the same pricing issues go through a place not ready for it, like restaurants and especially fast food, it can change quick. It would be interesting to take a nation-wide chain like McDonalds or Taco Bell and see their rates and how they change. The market will all come around, but the question is when. There is a chance of real negatives even from here, but I think you have to at least guess on the probabilities. It's one thing to throw out a "$90 could happen", but it's another to feel that there is a 20% chance of that happening. 10%? 5%? 1%? I'd give it a 1% chance, possibly even 2%, mostly on if bad geo-political things happen that cause oil to stay high for a long time, and worry people even more. OTOH, I'd give a 5-10% chance that this is the low, but maybe a total 50-80% chance that the market and AAPL are within 10% of the low. That is just guessing. But it's also based on the past 25 years. Each time is different. This just isn't comparable to 2000 or 2008, so those shouldn't be the expected outcomes, even if the unexpected happens sometimes. (EDIT: the S&P closed nearly 22% off its ATH closing price, from January. More articles point out that certain members of the S&P are down a lot more than others. Regardless of the exacts, a 3% intraday hit tomorrow would touch about 25% off, and the Fed coming in at another 50 basis points but noting they are watching things and some things are starting to change, or than further 50 basis point changes would only happen if circumstances dictate (as opposed to being assumed) could change things, making at least a localized bottom that could hold if worse things don't happen. It's not just a psychological game, but it does play a big part in it. Nearly 6 months of dropping could be just the start, but the market could also be near the low. Some things are collapsing, like today's plan of an EV van maker being sold for its parts. But that's mostly the exception, while there were some underlying issues (top 2 left months ago after insider trading accusations, and then their audit company left). And a bitcoin exchange having issues. But there are always things going on, though sometimes we put more meaning on them than others)
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ono
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posted
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Post by ono on Jun 13, 2022 12:27:30 GMT -8
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