Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jun 15, 2022 1:46:36 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jun 15, 2022 1:55:27 GMT -8
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Post by clarus on Jun 15, 2022 5:09:39 GMT -8
I wonder if any board members can confirm a random suspicion of mine.
It seems to me that every time the crypto balloon gets a major leak, it sets off a round of margin selling in popular counters like $$$MSFT, $TSLA or $AAPL - so often the market weakness is amplified and as soon as this washes through the system, the stocks get a pop again.
Or is this just junk science here on my part?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 15, 2022 7:32:08 GMT -8
Retail sales slowed in May US retail sales unexpectedly drop in May as inflation weighs on spendingI doubt it will change today's Fed announcement, but there are changes happening in the market, with these things and with house sales. Long term rentals probably have a a lot of catching up with current valuations, but attempted overpriced sales for marginal units are definitely changing, and inventory seems to be going up a little at least in our markets, even if it is still relatively tight.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 15, 2022 8:23:41 GMT -8
It seems to me that every time the crypto balloon gets a major leak, it sets off a round of margin selling in popular counters like $$$MSFT, $TSLA or $AAPL - so often the market weakness is amplified and as soon as this washes through the system, the stocks get a pop again. Or is this just junk science here on my part? If you are wanting to use this to make a tradable decision, I think you'd want to look into it more. Often everything is at least a little correlated, and our minds like to find patterns. You'd have to decide how big of a drop in crypto you are interested in. I don't follow it closely, so I only think of this drop and the one just after it was getting headlines everywhere, around xmas maybe 3.5 years ago. I'm sure there are others if looking at all 20% or 30% drops, but these were big 50+% drops. I have no idea if Yahoo's data is right, but if it is it has the 24-hr trading volume as roughly 2000 times the circulating supply. That's a whole lot of churn. finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USDAt the same time, the circulating supply market cap is only around $400B, so less than a fifth of Apple's current market cap. Especially if spread over multiple companies, it seems like a sell in one for a buy in the other wouldn't make much of a dent in the stock prices of these large companies. That said, take a look at the data and see what you find. There very well could be a correlation, especially if tech workers or other tech investors were playing around in a meaningful way. But that volume looks more akin to day trading or bots. Maybe that is the current playground for the arbitrage group, especially when coupled with currencies and exchanges, and with less regulation in some/many countries.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jun 15, 2022 10:31:11 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 15, 2022 10:56:59 GMT -8
It's interesting to see how quickly the market can change its assumptions.
On Friday most were expecting a half point increase, but 3 trading days later most were expecting a 3/4 point change, and that's what the fed gave.
It seems like the right decision, to bring the rate up a little quicker. Relative to most of history, rates are low. But this is like a huge ship, that it takes time to change direction, but sizable action early (once realized change is needed) makes it easier.
But I'm more amazed at how quickly the market absorbed this change of assumptions. This isn't that different from some of the pre-MacWorld expectations, where rumors have been pushing something for a bit, and then one or a couple reports come out just doubting it, a few days before. PR is a field I don't fully grasp, and so I find it interesting to see it done so well, even if back channels must be used.
Though I don't remember it talking about this sort of thing, I think it's time to reread "How to drive your competition crazy", by Guy Kawasaki.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 15, 2022 11:04:28 GMT -8
It's interesting to see how quickly the market can change its assumptions. On Friday most were expecting a half point increase, but 3 trading days later most were expecting a 3/4 point change, and that's what the fed gave. It seems like the right decision, to bring the rate up a little quicker. Relative to most of history, rates are low. But this is like a huge ship, that it takes time to change direction, but sizable action early (once realized change is needed) makes it easier. But I'm more amazed at how quickly the market absorbed this change of assumptions. This isn't that different from some of the pre-MacWorld expectations, where rumors have been pushing something for a bit, and then one or a couple reports come out just doubting it, a few days before. PR is a field I don't fully grasp, and so I find it interesting to see it done so well, even if back channels must be used. Though I don't remember it talking about this sort of thing, I think it's time to reread "How to drive your competition crazy", by Guy Kawasaki. I believe the weekend WSJ story about the Fed being likely to raise 0.75 was planted by the Fed. It didn't have any quoted sources, only background sources. It was their way of putting the market on notice. And Wall St took it that way, quickly changing bond expectations, until this morning when the market reflected a 98% chance of a 0.75 raise. If you listen to the Fed press conference (as I'm doing now) he's talking a lot about "reducing demand" to control inflation. This means business spending and consumer spending. They need to reduce consumption so that people have less money to spend. Apple products are resilient in that people need them. But some of the reduction in demand will hurt Apple EPS, whether it's fewer in-app purchases or slower upgrades to new phones and computers.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 15, 2022 11:36:45 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Jun 15, 2022 12:01:52 GMT -8
Interesting day. Someone sold a bunch of 135 calls, so lets see what happens at the week goes on. Weekly calls. ARKK the once and former hot ETF down from 132 to 35 at the low has a 5% of its equity investment into Coinbase? Not sure I'd go there.
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Post by dc930 on Jun 15, 2022 14:41:26 GMT -8
This is a fun intersection of 2 of my favorite interests, Apple and soccer. $250M per year is chump change for Apple, and it will be interesting to see how this new model works out (i.e. GLOBAL rights on a single platform). To my knowledge, that has never been done before. Sure seems to lend credence to the rumor that Apple is making a serious run at NFL Sunday Ticket when the DirecTV deal expires this year. That would be more like 3 BILLION per year though. As an investor, not sure what I think about Apple continuing to step outside their core competency, but they are so big now, and there are only so many physical widgets you can make. I've heard good things about the Friday Night Baseball production values, so I assume Apple will look to innovate on the soccer broadcast front as well. I personally probably won't pony up the extra subscription fee just for MLS though - that will be a big barrier for casual fans like me. I'd like to see them come out with a skinny service (whether soccer, baseball, football etc) for fans to pay for a subscription just for their local/favorite team, instead of having to pay for every single game. Still lots of opportunity to innovate in the live sports space! Also a 10-year deal is LONG. Soccer continues to grow in popularity - I think this will look like a great deal within a few years.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 15, 2022 20:30:14 GMT -8
For those who missed it, todays Fed press conference was basically: “We can’t do much about the inflationary effect of energy prices or supply chain disruptions. Those are out of our hands. But what we can do is keep raising rates as long and as hard as we need to — whacking housing prices, consumer spending, and the stock market — until we see inflation is trending down.”
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 15, 2022 20:47:05 GMT -8
For those who missed it, todays Fed press conference was basically: “We can’t do much about the inflationary effect of energy prices or supply chain disruptions. Those are out of our hands. But what we can do is keep raising rates as long and as hard as we need to — whacking housing prices, consumer spending, and the stock market — until we see inflation is trending down.” It seems housing, consumer spending, and the stock market have already started turning the corner, and the first 2 should be more obvious within the next month. Supply chains have a variety of things in there, though articles from a few weeks ago said overseas shut downs were done (for now) and most shipments there were back above 90% of normal. OTOH, with 40% of imports coming through the SoCal docks, and their contracts up for renegotiations while their main point is wanting to not have additional automation, just as they have wanted in the past, there could be some more disruptions. I think change is going to be more obvious in a month, even if it doesn't make it to the level the Fed is looking for. But some movement seems likely to be visible by then, especially since hints of it are visible now but it's not as widespread.
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