Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jul 12, 2022 1:41:15 GMT -8
Good morning. And again we have red in the pre-market -0.65%. It looks like Mr. Market is waiting for inflation data to be released. Let’s see how the dice roll. A turnaround in pre-market color, now green. Premarket: Apple is red
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jul 12, 2022 3:00:45 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Jul 12, 2022 7:27:31 GMT -8
Back above $150 would be nice this week
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 12, 2022 7:58:27 GMT -8
I hope that AAPL gets to and above its ATH this year, and $190-$200 seems like a good bullish target. But if my job was to come up with a 12 month target that was pretty likely, even if a bit of a push, and I was graded on how good my target ended up being, then I'd have to look at not just how Apple as a company seems to be going, and how they might do in conditions that aren't as good as the previous 12 months, but also how investors are pricing companies and how they might in the future if things aren't as good. That whole lowering P/E ratios, for companies like Apple that make a profit, or otherwise lowering the market as a whole because times don't look quite as golden as a whole. While disappointing to see price targets drop $25, they are still positive, this one implying a now 17% increase. I tend to think of the many ways AAPL and the market may jump out of this funk a little quicker than expected. But if instead trying to use a 60% probability mark, while feeling things can take in a lowered target now which gives more room to up the target in the future, I'm surprised there aren't more current targets in the $170-175 range.
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Post by hledgard on Jul 12, 2022 18:15:49 GMT -8
Apple's car project is bleeding money. If they are trying to get a fully autonomous vehicle, I believe the project is a dead end. It is practically speaking, impossible - endless driving scenarios, conditions, and roads. They have to find some piece of the pie that they can truly solve. And then market it in whatever way is appropriate. I somehow feel the project is sophisticated wishful thinking.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 13, 2022 11:10:06 GMT -8
Apple's car project is bleeding money. If they are trying to get a fully autonomous vehicle, I believe the project is a dead end. It is practically speaking, impossible - endless driving scenarios, conditions, and roads. They have to find some piece of the pie that they can truly solve. And then market it in whatever way is appropriate. I somehow feel the project is sophisticated wishful thinking. This is something that has been worked on for 25+ years, such as with the DARPA off-road challenge. One of the articles talked about Apple using a different method than others, claiming that others used sophisticated maps, whereas Apple was just using sensors. I can't imagine that this is fully true, but I could see things like Waymo only going public in certain specific areas (Phoenix and SFO airport) being able to use that, likely while they are improving things to be less dependent on good maps. I just took my son to the dentist, and my car had 2 issues. The first was in a construction zone where they put cone lines out, bringing us partly to the other side of the road. The force-feedback modules on the steering wheel went crazy with that as I was routed over lines. The second was backing up, and then a car decided to come in behind me and drop someone off. I saw them and waited, and then started backing up again after the car started driving away and cleared me. But apparently my car still felt the other was close, and so hit the brakes. My wife had the same thing at a friend's house a few days ago. Neither of these were self-driving, but it helps show some of the somewhat complex things a driver, AI or otherwise, has to deal with. But even humans have to learn these things, the actions and habits beyond the exact rules of the driver's handbook. My son has his permit now, so we're attempting to teach those in real-life too. The basics are easy. It's the complexities that make things tough.
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Post by hledgard on Jul 13, 2022 18:09:49 GMT -8
Have to buy a car soon, the dealer cannot fix my 2011 Lincoln because the part is backordered globally. = Chip shortage.
Both the Hyundai and Nissan have the same menu interface for car settings. A nice, simple interface !
A cross-car common interface can be a threat to Apple in its attempt to enter this market.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Jul 14, 2022 6:21:56 GMT -8
Apple's car project is bleeding money. If they are trying to get a fully autonomous vehicle, I believe the project is a dead end. It is practically speaking, impossible - endless driving scenarios, conditions, and roads. They have to find some piece of the pie that they can truly solve. And then market it in whatever way is appropriate. I somehow feel the project is sophisticated wishful thinking. This is something that has been worked on for 25+ years, such as with the DARPA off-road challenge. One of the articles talked about Apple using a different method than others, claiming that others used sophisticated maps, whereas Apple was just using sensors. I can't imagine that this is fully true, but I could see things like Waymo only going public in certain specific areas (Phoenix and SFO airport) being able to use that, likely while they are improving things to be less dependent on good maps. I just took my son to the dentist, and my car had 2 issues. The first was in a construction zone where they put cone lines out, bringing us partly to the other side of the road. The force-feedback modules on the steering wheel went crazy with that as I was routed over lines. The second was backing up, and then a car decided to come in behind me and drop someone off. I saw them and waited, and then started backing up again after the car started driving away and cleared me. But apparently my car still felt the other was close, and so hit the brakes. My wife had the same thing at a friend's house a few days ago. Neither of these were self-driving, but it helps show some of the somewhat complex things a driver, AI or otherwise, has to deal with. But even humans have to learn these things, the actions and habits beyond the exact rules of the driver's handbook. My son has his permit now, so we're attempting to teach those in real-life too. The basics are easy. It's the complexities that make things tough. I've driven a few models with the "lane and variable speed keeping" feature on the highway. So far, the Tesla does it best. Next best was the Volvo. And third best was the Genesis. After that, all mediocre, were the Chevy and Ford versions. I haven't tried supercruise yet, but that's a special case only on well-mapped roads. I don't know how supercruise handles cones and lane shifts ... it probably turns off in those cases. But there are still substantial problems with machine driving. I experience them all the time in my Tesla. For example, the Tesla doesn't "look" at turn signals or brake lights. It relies solely on "seeing" other vehicles and measuring their speed and acceleration independently (and it has to be this way because brake lights and turn signals aren't lways reliable). But that leads to errors that don't happen to humans. There is a road that I drive on at least 10 times a week, and it is curved, and has turnoffs into shopping areas periodically, even on the curves. Quite often, a car in front of me is on the curve to the right, and signalling right, and beginning their turn into the shopping area, so I continue on my way, BUT the car projects the path of the car ahead, on the curve, and sees it slowing, and sees it curving right, and as I approach it, it gives me a forward collision alert. Meanwhile, at the time it gives the alert, the car ahead is almost entirely in the shopping area, and will be all the way in long before I reach that spot. But the car doesn't know the exact curvature of the road, so it thinks the car ahead is still on the road, or at least partially on the road. I can make this error happen almost at will. I hope Tesla has been redording and analyzing it, so they can somehow improve their software. But this is just one case, there are hundreds, even thousands, more such cases. And new cases like that can arise on any day on any road. And that is why I using my 4 decades of engineering experience, believe that NOT A SINGLE car on the road today will ever be truly full self driving. None of them have the processing power necessary, and you can't download more processing power. Furthermore, I think it will also require closer integration of the sensors and the processing to really work properly. And, interestingly enough, Apple is pretty good at that task. I'm right now in the middle of teaching my last 3 teens how to drive. That'll bring the total to 5 teens that I've taught. I teach driving a little differently than most people do. I also take a LOT more time doing it, because I want them exposed to as many real-life circumstances as possible before they get their license and drive alone. We start in empty parking lots for a few weeks, until they have the basics down, stop at stop line, right, left, yield, fine control, etc. Then we start on quiet, standard (straight) roads. Consistent distance keeping, consistent speed, etc. Then switching lanes. Then lights, yields, merges, other cars, etc. Then places with more traffic. Finally after driving around lots of errands and stuff, then they "graduate" to short highway trips, two or three exits at most. Then some city driving and parking. Then they move on to longer highway trips (my daughter did her first longer highway trip last week) like 30 miles. Finally, the last real instructional drive is "the long drive" ... a real long distance trip of 200+ miles where the kid does everything, all the driving, all the gassing up/charging, figuring out the route, dealing with whatever* comes, construction, detours, etc. And getting all of us (usually many members of the family is in the vehicle on those kinds of trips) safely and comfortably to our destination. One of my sons drove us ~200 miles a few months ago, and I allowed him to use the autopilot (lane+speed keeping) feature for the first time on the highway. He drove from my daughter's college parking lot, till our driveway, non-stop. My method takes a year or two to complete. Then the summer before they head off to college, they get their license. * Obviously sometimes I make an exception when safety is an issue. For example, once on a 200 mile drive, there was a massive downpour where visibility was near zero. I took over at that point of course.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 14, 2022 10:00:11 GMT -8
I've driven a few models with the "lane and variable speed keeping" feature on the highway. So far, the Tesla does it best. Next best was the Volvo. And third best was the Genesis. After that, all mediocre, were the Chevy and Ford versions. I haven't tried supercruise yet, but that's a special case only on well-mapped roads. I don't know how supercruise handles cones and lane shifts ... it probably turns off in those cases. FWIW, the new Sienna did pretty well with lane keeping and cruise control. I used it some a couple months ago on I-80 (mountain driving but multiple lanes going the same way, with hills going from ~0 feet to 7200 feet over ~100 miles), and then a few weeks ago on 395 from Southern California headed to NV. Those are well defined in most places (snow plows and truck chains take off the line marking paint). It's not tied in with the speed limit sign identification, so going from 65 quickly down to 25 you have to intercede. I also didn't have the distance setting dialed in, so a couple times when I came up on someone and didn't change lanes, it took a moment to realize why we were slowing down even though we were still very far back. Driving is a lot like other things, where the basics aren't that tough, but the variability is what is. Tumble weed or wild animal? Bird? A cat chasing something on the freeway when going 75? Today, it was more road construction, with them not letting me make a right when headed out (worked ok, and even had a sign), but then not letting me make a left when I came back (no sign, and requiring a detour). It will get there. If we can train 15 year olds, have people well past their prime, have all levels of people, and even have mental/drug/alcohol impaired people do mostly ok, then a computer should be able to do it. It just might be more machine learning and AI, than straight programming. I'm sure some of these big companies are using this, and I know one of the little guys ~13 years ago was doing that, having it learn from his driving. Have 20 cars, driven twice as much as usual for a year, and suddenly you have 40 years of drivers experience.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jul 14, 2022 13:03:01 GMT -8
Mark, you have an amazing amount of patience and a willingness to train. If only more parents would spend the time and effort to teach their children the skill of driving. Thank you. I’m not sure about where I stand on autonomous vehicles. I understand all of the advantages of a vehicle that only requires you to tell it where you want it to take you safely and effortlessly, but I don’t see it happening on the scale necessary except where you have a controlled area of limited variables and preprogrammed responses. If the main goal is safety then we as a country should do just what you have been doing which is required meaningful training before allowing someone to pilot a vehicle. The human brain’s ability to take in information, process and respond with the best choice available is amazing, if properly trained and conditioned. But maybe I’m asking too much as we are already this path of automation. Just a thought.
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