Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jul 19, 2022 2:00:23 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 19, 2022 7:07:51 GMT -8
Unfortunately it seems we are going to hear that line a lot. Apple will probably even "say" something similar in their earnings, or rather something that will mean and be interpreted as the same, such as a slightly more conservative number on revenue expectations or R&D. An analyst will ask on the call, and it will be answered, in an open ended kind of way since no one really knows right now. Even if answered in a solid way, it will then just depend on the analyst and writer's biases as to the headlines the next day. At least that's what I'd expect. These turns sometimes seem so slow. But while never exactly the same, they follow a pattern.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 19, 2022 7:24:50 GMT -8
Dav Ives of Webush today: My take is that yeah, lots of headwinds (recession, inflation, strong dollar), but basic demand will be about the same. Seeing today's huge overreaction to IBM's slightly weaker guidance after a beat was scary though. My theory on Apple's "cut back on hiring" is just a frustration that a lot of companies have about the resistance of entitled workers in coming back to work. I think we will see the SV pendulum swinging back the other way now. Companies won't be hiring anyone who won't come into work, and they will begin to cull the current workers who insist on WFH, or at least leave them out of key projects and promotions. There will be great opportunities for those who do come into the office. As Woody Allen once observed, "80% of success is just showing up."
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 19, 2022 7:52:49 GMT -8
My theory on Apple's "cut back on hiring" is just a frustration that a lot of companies have about the resistance of entitled workers in coming back to work. At some point, when enough employees start worrying about job cuts and such due to this recession that is coming in some form, and other companies announcing hiring slow downs or cuts, management needs to come in and calm the herd. Apple did this in ~2001 (hiring freeze in most areas, but no big cuts) and again in ~2008. I think they did the same in 2020, signaling their plans. It just lets people stop fretting about something and get back to work. I had the same thing at another company, who had never had mass layoffs before and so didn't really have the experience. Over 2 years time they would trim different groups, and so it was always on people's wall of worry, even from the day I was hired. Our group was told to be the future direction of the company, so I was never that worried. But sure enough, 2 years later, the monday after a product release, they trimmed our group heavily. There may have to be cuts in the future due to people not getting over wanting to work remotely. As the job market changes slightly, Apple will have a little more power, but also the mindset of the average worker will change a little. Like anything, there are downsides, so the trick is pushing and pointing out the positives so that people realize them too. Instead of just having to deal with commute traffic again, I expect Apple will push up some of the positives. Maybe a few more Beer Bashes. Maybe a band, instead of mostly just for WWDC. Or maybe just half price coffees at the cafe on Tuesday and Thursday mornings, or the same at the frozen yogurt stand on Wednesday afternoon. It's really just the outsiders, mainly certain analysts and investors, that are saying "OMG, things must be getting bad if Apple is saying they might slow hiring. What else do they know that they aren't telling us?" Fun times
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Post by BillH on Jul 19, 2022 8:56:21 GMT -8
Guess you're going to have to click on this. Don't know why it comes in that way.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 173
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Post by jz on Jul 19, 2022 9:11:21 GMT -8
Reasons to be optimistic?
1). Recalling a quarterly report not too many years ago, AAPL revealed it had bought hedges against an adverse currency environment and that those well-timed hedges mitigated the currency headwinds. Déjà vu?
2). With many alternative places to park money facing their own FUD and thus some people focused on return OF investment verses return ON investment, AAPL presents a relatively safe harbor for potential storms ahead.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 19, 2022 9:32:31 GMT -8
More on Ive's note from PED: (Click link for more)
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