Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2022 1:06:19 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Aug 12, 2022 5:47:42 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2022 6:45:40 GMT -8
After looking at the daily chart, one year time frame, there is a strong trend line that aapl has been following that leads to a new all-time-high by September 1. Of course that’s if nothing bad should happen between now and then. Today’s RSI is in the 72 range, it was about 78 when it hit $182 then. Not sure if it can be stretched that far. No predictions, just sayin’. After all, what could possibly go wrong?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 12, 2022 7:38:22 GMT -8
After looking at the daily chart, one year time frame, there is a strong trend line that aapl has been following that leads to a new all-time-high by September 1. Of course that’s if nothing bad should happen between now and then. Today’s RSI is in the 72 range, it was about 78 when it hit $182 then. Not sure if it can be stretched that far. No predictions, just sayin’. After all, what could possibly go wrong? That one year chart is pretty crazy. And looking at a 2 year, a line could easily be made off of last year's values that points pretty high. I don't know about all of that stuff, but convincing people that it might be possible can change the number of people willing to sell at current prices, and number of people wanting to buy now before further upside. IMO it seems too early to be dreaming of ATH's. But if that's where things go in the short term, I guess we'll just have to struggle through.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 12, 2022 8:16:35 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Aug 12, 2022 8:40:09 GMT -8
IMO it seems to early to be dreaming of ATH's. But if that's where things go in the short term, I guess we'll just have to struggle through.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2022 9:11:49 GMT -8
As they say (whoever they are), when the trend is going up we think that it will always go up. And when the trend is going down, we think that it is always going to go down. And it does, until it doesn’t. But if one had looked at that chart a week ago, what would the odds have been that the trend would have continued to this point today? Will the odds be the same into Friday of next week? But options expiration is next Friday. Anyone have any input?
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Post by zebrum on Aug 12, 2022 11:16:45 GMT -8
Today I received a second Grace vs Apple class action check for $30.43. Seems that Apple didn't pay any more compenstation, just sounds like a lot of people didn't bother to deposit the $3.06 check last year and it was distributed among those that did!
Grace vs Apple was when Facetime stopped working on 4 and 4S running iOS 6 when iOS 7 came out.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Aug 12, 2022 11:20:02 GMT -8
That story about iPhone 14 demand (estimates) from AAPL are starting to move the needle I think - Apple is SO secretive, and these reports from them to their suppliers is one of the BEST data points in terms of credibility - "Apple expects strong iPhone demand, tells suppliers to produce at 2021 levels" finance.yahoo.com/video/apple-expects-strong-iphone-demand-132421303.html
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Post by duckpins on Aug 12, 2022 11:28:51 GMT -8
Anyone else get an email about a Grace vs Apple class action suit for iPhone 4s?
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Post by duckpins on Aug 12, 2022 11:58:25 GMT -8
172.5 Max Pain.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 12, 2022 12:00:48 GMT -8
Weeeeeee for the day, and the week!!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 12, 2022 12:26:02 GMT -8
With AAPL at 172, and daily RSI at 74, this could be a good spot to reduce short term positions. I like to buy short term positions when the RSI is below 40 and reduce them when it is significantly above 70.
The stock may continue to rise from here over the next few weeks, but my opinion is that the risk/reward here is higher than average, and that we’re very likely to see lower prices for repurchasing sold shares/options at some point in the future.
I keep a large core position for the long term, so if it continues to rise and never drops into the 160s again, I’ll be happy too.
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nwjade
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Post by nwjade on Aug 12, 2022 12:26:56 GMT -8
As they say (whoever they are), when the trend is going up we think that it will always go up. And when the trend is going down, we think that it is always going to go down. And it does, until it doesn’t. But if one had looked at that chart a week ago, what would the odds have been that the trend would have continued to this point today? Will the odds be the same into Friday of next week? But options expiration is next Friday. Anyone have any input? Whenever my mindset goes to 'This is great and I start checking my portfolio balance' odds are tipping towards a pullback... However, we all know the market can't go up in a straight line anyway. Who would've guessed such a strong rally taking place off the June 16th low, aapl up +32.5% Wow, cheers to the longs, have a great weekend!
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Aug 12, 2022 12:33:37 GMT -8
A great close at the high with good volume. Now, if only nothing crazy happens over the weekend we can continue the party.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 12, 2022 13:55:14 GMT -8
With AAPL at 172, and daily RSI at 74, this could be a good spot to reduce short term positions. I like to buy short term positions when the RSI is below 40 and reduce them when it is significantly above 70. The stock may continue to rise from here over the next few weeks, but my opinion is that the risk/reward here is higher than average, and that we’re very likely to see lower prices for repurchasing sold shares/options at some point in the future. I keep a large core position for the long term, so if it continues to rise and never drops into the 160s again, I’ll be happy too. I believe a book I read a long time ago talked about using RSI when it dropped back through a number, like 70, similar to how someone might decide to sell shares when the price came back down to one of the moving averages, whereas they wouldn't sell when passing through that moving average when headed up. With that mindset, it looks like holding out until AAPL comes back down to an RSI of 70 tends to give you a higher price than selling when going through it on the way up. Neither are likely to be the very peak, but if looking at a mechanical way to do it, when RSI is headed down tends to do better. OTOH, AAPL is in this magical pre-iphone-announcement timeframe, that gave a peak a day or so into September 2 years ago. Like the MacWorld peaks, they tend to move a little as some try to use it as a timing aid. But in general terms, the pre-iphone-announcement timeframe should give some nice tailwinds. In combination with the ATH, the peak in Feb, and the peak in March, there should be some resistance somewhere. I'll consider setting some of the extra shares I have on margin, just to lesson risk a tiny bit. I'll also consider throwing some shares off into the Donor Advised Fund, since while not peaky like 200 might be, ~175-180 is pretty decently priced IMO at this point in time. Nothing gigantic, but enough to make some decent donations while offsetting some income that would otherwise be taxed at nearly 50% due to layering of IRS rules. I'd like to see AAPL climb to 190 or even 200 on this run. But trying to be realistic, it seems decently probable that there's going to be some resistance here, and that if it does manage to hit a new ATH without amazing news and closing of some geopolitical stuff, it seems likely to set a quick peak. Have a great weekend everyone!
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