Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 18, 2022 0:54:31 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 18, 2022 1:26:28 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 18, 2022 5:19:27 GMT -8
Technical Analyst says to dump AAPLWhile I can see that AAPL has gone up quite a bit lately, and will probably go down in the short term, over the longer term, it will continue to climb. Especially with the new iPhone, AppleWatch, AirPod and iPads coming out. Not to mention earnings too. Short term, yea, the stock can go down. If you're a trader act accordingly. If you're in for the long term, look for additional cash.
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Post by duckpins on Aug 18, 2022 10:03:17 GMT -8
Technical Analyst says to dump AAPL
The claim that Apple is a hardware company lacks depth. the iPhone is the whole enchilada. A lot of these guys are still using Microsoft windows and think apple is a rival to Dell. Views are extreme. If MSFT deserves a 40 plus multiple then Apple does as well. The iPhone is at the center of several cultures. The WIntel monopoly was at the center of a tech build out. Had zero to do with culture or consumers. Maybe Apple deserves an 80 multiple?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 18, 2022 13:01:32 GMT -8
Wow, they were getting a little too broad in their categorization there. There are so many things one can do with options, from being uber bullish to uber bearish, that just categorizing one that uses options as a Cowboy is really using a broad brush. One of the comments was on point about taking advantage of the peaks and valleys, to write calls or write puts. It is a hard time to do it, mentally, and writing puts when things are down might be the harder of the two. But even not hitting the absolutes, it can work out. It looks like I only bought a few shares close to the bottom this time, though some decent chunks in the 160's while headed down. OTOH, the most important thing is to not sell out at the bottom, due to fear or being forced out in a margin call. And that's where those big options plays can kill you, if expiration is too soon and you aren't covered. Some manage to roll things forward (mark?) if the timing is wrong, which should work in some cases, especially with covered calls. But like most risk/reward decisions, the big problem is choosing to take on too much risk, and having it go against you. If you bet it all every time, the probability eventually catches up with you, whether that's a failure 50% of the time (coin toss), or just one in 10 times. The trouble is it's hard to be conservative if you just won 9 times in a row. Trying to win big, quickly, is the real problem. Like the mega millions, the odds are against you. It's one thing to use some play money or see it as entertainment ("Dream a little dream for me"). But the ones only looking for a "get rich quick" scheme are the ones that get burned most often.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 18, 2022 13:10:11 GMT -8
Almost 75% of iPhone users have activated Apple PayOn their comparison graph, Apple Pay is basically 1/3 of the credit card use (or 1/4 of the total non-cash spending). It's not clear to me if this is covering all spending, or this is a "how do you prefer to pay" or "what payment method do you ever use?". I try to use Apple Pay whenever I can, though the other thing would be separating out Apple Pay vs the Apple Credit Card. I haven't bothered putting any other cards into my Apple Wallet.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 18, 2022 13:55:18 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Aug 18, 2022 18:28:42 GMT -8
Technical Analyst says to dump AAPLWhile I can see that AAPL has gone up quite a bit lately, and will probably go down in the short term, over the longer term, it will continue to climb. Especially with the new iPhone, AppleWatch, AirPod and iPads coming out. Not to mention earnings too. Short term, yea, the stock can go down. If you're a trader act accordingly. If you're in for the long term, look for additional cash. I rarely trade stocks. Pretty much every time I've sold a stock, I end up regretting that action. I sold some UNH in 2006 at $51 and in 2008 at $25, always for a profit. I regret those sales. I sold some TMUS (half my position!!) in 2014 for $35.02. I regret that sale. Sure I've ridden stocks down to zero (like TDFX), but that is a rare occurrence. Over the long-term, stocks usually go up. So I don't trade Apple stock, or at least I don't anymore. I regret every single sale of Apple stock, and they were all at a profit. Nowadays, when I get the urge to "play", I use options instead. Options give you COMPLETE freedom to choose your risk levels, and thus your potential return levels. For example, I chose a relatively low risk 90/120 bull call spread recently for a ~50% potential maximum gain (I discussed it here at the time). And I sell puts when they are opportunistically high priced, or just when I'm in the mood. I have all sorts right now, all the way out to 2024 sometime. I like the puts a lot because to me they mostly seem to be win-win. For example, last year I sold some 110 puts for ~$11 ... to me that it a true win-win, either I get to buy stock at a discount, at $110-11 = $99, or I get to keep the $11. Can hardly go wrong either way. I still have some $100 puts outstanding that will likely expire worthless in 4 weeks from tomorrow, I was paid $7 for those last year!
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