Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 26, 2022 1:13:03 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Aug 26, 2022 5:42:23 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 26, 2022 7:50:11 GMT -8
The market has rolled over in the last couple weeks, unable to break its downtrend. Below is a chart for the S&P. Downtrend is marked by lower highs and lower lows. The spot circled is where it went up to the trend line marked by the 2 previous highs and then got rejected, forming a new peak that’s lower than the previous one. That’s the definition of a “lower high” The same is true for AAPL, although AAPL got a lot closer to breaking its previous high from March (177 vs prev high of 179.xx). Still, we’ve had a quick whoosh down of $10 since then… It’s possible the market will now retest the lows. Be careful.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 26, 2022 8:42:12 GMT -8
The market has rolled over in the last couple weeks, unable to break its downtrend. Below is a chart for the S&P. Downtrend is marked by lower highs and lower lows. The spot circled is where it went up to the trend line marked by the 2 previous highs and then got rejected, forming a new peak that’s lower than the previous one. That’s the definition of a “lower high” The same is true for AAPL, although AAPL got a lot closer to breaking its previous high from March (177 vs prev high of 179.xx). Still, we’ve had a quick whoosh down of $10 since then… It’s possible the market will now retest the lows. Be careful. Thank you Archibaldtuttle.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 26, 2022 8:49:56 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 26, 2022 9:03:45 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 26, 2022 9:30:21 GMT -8
Another piece of technical bad news to end your week. Unless there’s a big bounce, we have a clear bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. That’s when one day of trading encapsulates previous days’ trading ranges.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 26, 2022 10:27:52 GMT -8
Another piece of technical bad news to end your week. Unless there’s a big bounce, we have a clear bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. That’s when one day of trading encapsulates previous days’ trading ranges. Okay, so don't leave us hanging. What are some of the possibilities? Gap fill? Or just a bounce off of the 200 MA.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Aug 26, 2022 11:24:46 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Aug 26, 2022 12:04:55 GMT -8
The amount of money made by video games never ceases to amaze me.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 26, 2022 12:43:27 GMT -8
Another piece of technical bad news to end your week. Unless there’s a big bounce, we have a clear bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. That’s when one day of trading encapsulates previous days’ trading ranges. Okay, so don't leave us hanging. What are some of the possibilities? Gap fill? Or just a bounce off of the 200 MA. I never predict exact prices, and no one can. It's more about probabilities. I see TA as similar to the way that people count cards at blackjack... People who are trained to count cards can figure out when a deck has a lot of 10s left in it -- when a deck is "hot" -- versus when a deck has a lot of low cards in it, and the deck is "cold." When the deck is hot, there's a higher probability of winning a hand so they increase the size of their bets. And they reduce the size of their bets when the deck is cold. They can't tell what the next card is going to be, or when a 10 is going to come up, any more than a technical analyst can say exactly what a stock is going to do. But a card counter can tell when it's more likely that some 10s are coming. I reduced the size of my bet on AAPL when the stock was at 172 and the RSI was around 74, as I previously posted. That's my "the deck is about to turn cold" signal. That signal was shown to be correct, once again... and now we're almost $10 cheaper. This week I'm back to counting cards, trying to assess where we're at. I'm paying attention to see if the deck might get hot again. Usually 50 RSI (which is where we got to today) is a nice spot to take a nibble and risk another chip on the stack. The probability of going up when we're at 50 RSI is higher than when RSI is at 74. However, from today's major market freakout, it seems like the sell off could keep going or even increase in intensity. Deck still cold and potentially getting colder. So I'll be watching on Monday... If selloff increases in the coming days, I'll buy around 35 RSI, and really back up the truck if it gets to 30 again.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 26, 2022 14:28:28 GMT -8
Todays closing price was right at the low of the day, with a very large spike in volume. That indicates to me that no one wanted to be in this stock on Monday morning. And like you said, afraid that this drop will continue into next week. I’m just curious about where some of the price supports are. The 200 MA of course is the nearest. Just a thought.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 26, 2022 15:31:00 GMT -8
Todays closing price was right at the low of the day, with a very large spike in volume. That indicates to me that no one wanted to be in this stock on Monday morning. And like you said, afraid that this drop will continue into next week. I’m just curious about where some of the price supports are. The 200 MA of course is the nearest. Just a thought. Down another ~1.25 in AH, to ~162.4. The 200 DMA is at ~160.4 Yep, when things are bad, people limit exposure over the weekend, or even overnight. It's hard to guess now is there will be followthru going lower on Monday, or even a few days. But the fear and worry is there, and is seems like the probability is on a "cold hand". Back to Powell, Mester, and others with the Fed, psychologically the best way to kill things is to predict rate increases going out for a while, and then that they will stick for the long term. It's going to be bad. Bad! BAD! finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-fed-mester-jackson-hole-205608216.htmlThat's what they need to push, to have rate increases do their job, while limiting how high they really need to raise rates. Else too many people start looking 6-12 months out, guessing dovish things then. I didn't like seeing that they felt unemployment might need to raise, since IMO that will make it harder to be a softish landing. But one interesting side-thought is on those that left the workforce in the past 2.5 years. If some of them decide to pick up a job, full time or otherwise, you could have job numbers going up while unemployment percentages also go up, since the total workforce number would be increasing. We'll see how things go. The S&P is still 16% off it's peak, though 11.5% off the floor. The Nasdaq is 25% off the peak, but up 15% from the floor. I'd expect more hawkish Fed comments and actions to extend how long it takes for the indexes to recover, both fully and to the 10% or so off the peaks. AAPL is ~11% off the peak, and 26% off the floor, even using lower AH numbers. It's nice to be better than the averages, even if all around things don't seem great. These 5+ point falls bug, and a 7.5 point fall including AH stings more than a bit. Have a great weekend everyone.
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Post by zebrum on Aug 26, 2022 17:22:21 GMT -8
One of the worst Friday dips I have ever seen
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 27, 2022 2:22:19 GMT -8
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Post by macster on Aug 27, 2022 18:43:45 GMT -8
Or this if you never heard of this guy. Whether it’s true or not it has happened to others
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Aug 28, 2022 1:07:40 GMT -8
Or this if you never heard of this guy. Whether it’s true or not it has happened to others Wow. I’m confident that there have been plenty of times where he has wished for a “do over”. Or, he has start a sentence with “If only I had . . . .”.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Aug 28, 2022 17:06:04 GMT -8
Or this if you never heard of this guy. Whether it’s true or not it has happened to others 10% of Apple is worth a lot more than that now. True - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Wayne
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 28, 2022 17:11:42 GMT -8
Or this if you never heard of this guy. Whether it’s true or not it has happened to others 10% of Apple is worth a lot more than that now. True - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_WayneI'd have to double check, but I thought Ron was the one that put in 10% for a few days, but decided that it wasn''t worth the risk/liability. Shoulda/woulda/coulda. I was a little young at that time, and so didn't have 10% to give. But in retrospect, you often only look at the positive cases. If I remember right, Ron did ok. Not as well as he might have. But at some point, for most people, it just doesn't matter much. Would it really change your life, if you broke even on an investment these days on an investment with part of your money, vs made some extraordinary gain?
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