Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 14, 2013 23:31:26 GMT -8
Monthly OpEx Friday + "reaction" to S4 announcement = yet another interesting trading day for AAPL ahead.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 15, 2013 0:26:12 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by mace on Mar 15, 2013 0:28:55 GMT -8
LovemyiPad,
Not sure you're aware that there are many derivative products (not talking about options) being sold to ignorant investors. These products are marketed as hedge vs hyperinflation or high interest-paying products. Because of the fiscal cliff, investors of such products got margin calls and are forced to sell. Many of such products are being unwound, probably causing the continued decline after Sep 2012. AAPL has essentially experiencing the "housing bubble burst than financial crisis" again. So until all such investor-pigs are slaughtered, AAPL would still be under price pressure. This finding is consistent with Wheeles' assertion that it is the liquidity collapse that cause AAPL to unable to recover in Sep 2012 but continue to decline till now. Those cock and bull story about Apple day is over is unlikely to be true.
Now that technicals are damaged, sentiments become bearish and longs lost money/confidence, time is needed to reassure that Apple growth story/magic is still intact.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 15, 2013 0:33:05 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Mar 15, 2013 2:26:09 GMT -8
Looking good in PMT...
|
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 2:45:23 GMT -8
All the fanfare yesterday....I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how poorly the result seems to be. Hope the media interprets it the same way.
How about getting back to basics...how awesome would it be to have some "incredibly long" battery life? That alone would be a great feat!
Question for the gentlemen out there...if you use the Galaxy, how do you hold it? Friend of mine can't fit it in his pocket and now laments his choice. He as to carry it in his hand all the time - very cumbersome.
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 15, 2013 2:49:40 GMT -8
So far so good. Let's not let OE ruin the fun. |
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 2:53:20 GMT -8
So far so good. Let's not let OE ruin the fun. Anyone know where max pain is today? |
|
platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
|
Post by platon on Mar 15, 2013 2:56:30 GMT -8
LovemyiPad, Not sure you're aware that there are many derivative products (not talking about options) being sold to ignorant investors. These products are marketed as hedge vs hyperinflation or high interest-paying products. Because of the fiscal cliff, investors of such products got margin calls and are forced to sell. Many of such products are being unwound, probably causing the continued decline after Sep 2012. AAPL has essentially experiencing the "housing bubble burst than financial crisis" again. So until all such investor-pigs are slaughtered, AAPL would still be under price pressure. This finding is consistent with Wheeles' assertion that it is the liquidity collapse that cause AAPL to unable to recover in Sep 2012 but continue to decline till now. Those cock and bull story about Apple day is over is unlikely to be true. Now that technicals are damaged, sentiments become bearish and longs lost money/confidence, time is needed to reassure that Apple growth story/magic is still intact. Thanks for this post Mace. Reminds me of the past when you and others brought some common sense to the other wise irrational marketing and trading of Apple. |
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 15, 2013 3:10:50 GMT -8
So far so good. Let's not let OE ruin the fun. Anyone know where max pain is today? I think it's around 450. |
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 3:12:39 GMT -8
Bill Miller just said on CNBC that they have just gone "overweight" in their funds (Legg Mason Funds - he is a successful value investor, amongst other things) on AAPL after having sold it initially in the high 600s. By the way he has been positive for well over a month now -- which is when he was buying it. There are several articles on him and his views on AAPL on the internet if anyone cares.
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 15, 2013 3:12:41 GMT -8
Samsung finished down 2.63% for the day. I guess investors were equally as impressed with the SIV as I was.
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 15, 2013 3:18:14 GMT -8
It would be sweet to start closing above some weekly moving averages. The 8 week is around 447.
The 20 day is at 440. I would expect initial resistance there (unless we gap over it), and then bull our way through.
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 15, 2013 3:24:23 GMT -8
Also very close to the upper downtrend line from 705 to 555. AAPL Daily  |
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Mar 15, 2013 3:25:29 GMT -8
LovemyiPad, Not sure you're aware that there are many derivative products (not talking about options) being sold to ignorant investors. These products are marketed as hedge vs hyperinflation or high interest-paying products. Because of the fiscal cliff, investors of such products got margin calls and are forced to sell. Many of such products are being unwound, probably causing the continued decline after Sep 2012. AAPL has essentially experiencing the "housing bubble burst than financial crisis" again. So until all such investor-pigs are slaughtered, AAPL would still be under price pressure. This finding is consistent with Wheeles' assertion that it is the liquidity collapse that cause AAPL to unable to recover in Sep 2012 but continue to decline till now. Those cock and bull story about Apple day is over is unlikely to be true. Now that technicals are damaged, sentiments become bearish and longs lost money/confidence, time is needed to reassure that Apple growth story/magic is still intact. Great post, Mace! Thank you!  |
|
|
|
Post by yellowhandman on Mar 15, 2013 3:30:54 GMT -8
I feel like I woke up in the twilight zone. Mainstream press articles I'm reading about the SIV suddenly have ifs and buts, questioning whether Samsung has done enough to preempt an Apple fight back later in the year. The NY Times even mentioned that Apple has a profit lead, and a few stories cited Apple's continued market share lead in the US.
I guess the press just likes to foment drama, but this is also how momentum can turn.
|
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Mar 15, 2013 3:40:38 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 3:42:02 GMT -8
Highly doubtful this will factor in today but Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu came out and reduced iPhone numbers:
The firm is reducing iPhone forecast but leaving iPads and Macs intact. iPhone unit forecast goes to 32.5 million (from 35 million) versus the consensus at 35-36 million. iPad unit forecast is unchanged at 18.5 million (consensus at 18-19 million) and Mac unit outlook at 3.85 million (consensus at 3.8-3.9 million).
He said he thinks that this is already baked into the stock. So a non-event but just sharing the info.
Oh and PT Lowered from $715 to $630 at Sterne Agee, Buy rated
|
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Mar 15, 2013 3:46:34 GMT -8
Gene Munster and the folks at Piper on #GalaxyS4: we see the "software improvements as minor compared with what Siri was to the iPhone 4S" AAPL
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Mar 15, 2013 3:51:57 GMT -8
He said he thinks that this is already baked into the stock. So a non-event but just sharing the info. I would say an iPhone miss of 2.5-3.5M isn't baked in. |
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Mar 15, 2013 4:02:34 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Mar 15, 2013 4:02:59 GMT -8
Anyone know where max pain is today? I think it's around 450. Max pain OI range is between $430 and $435. A close above $435 would be positive. Closing above $440 would be very positive (22k call OI). Highest call OI (apart from the $500) is at $450 (26k call OI). Closing above that would be very bullish. |
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Mar 15, 2013 4:08:14 GMT -8
Here is an excellent comment from HORACE'S recent post: Hosni • 13 hours ago Horace, your final two sentences deserve comment: "Google reported that ... Android and Chrome would be under the same management ... the implications of the merger with Chrome will need significant contemplation." Given the heavy patent fees that Google is already paying to Microsoft and possible new penalties associated with infringing Oracle and Apple patents, it strongly appears that Google is contemplating a wholesale shift in Android. A new Android would no doubt also make it far more difficult if not impossible for device makers to adopt Android while excluding Google search, as the Kindle Fire and others have been doing with increasing frequency. Finally, it is likely that the new Android would available first on Google's Motorola phones, and that could provide valuable first-mover status to Moto that would show up on Google's bottom line --- possibly for years. |
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Mar 15, 2013 4:08:20 GMT -8
Contrarian trade. Most people thought Samdung reveal would squash aapl. Market loves proving people wrong |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 4:30:15 GMT -8
So far so good. Let's not let OE ruin the fun. I'm thinking this has the potential for a Gap 'n Go play, only today being expiry, and given AAPL's 8 day run, I'm inclied to think further out than end of day exit. |
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Mar 15, 2013 4:33:56 GMT -8
GOOD GRIEF!The Complaint alleges that throughout the Class Period the defendants misrepresented and/or failed to disclose that: (1) the Company’s dependence for revenues on its biggest customer -- Apple, Inc. -- was increasing rather than diminishing; (2) the Company’s sales growth was declining rather than increasing; (3) difficulties in its supply chain, and at its vendors, were increasing Cirrus’s costs and diminishing the Company’s profit margins; (4) the launch of several models of Cirrus’s new LED lighting had been delayed; and (5) as a result, Cirrus’s increased fiscal 2013 guidance was not attainable.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 4:34:58 GMT -8
Here is an excellent comment from HORACE'S recent post: Hosni • 13 hours ago Horace, your final two sentences deserve comment: "Google reported that ... Android and Chrome would be under the same management ... the implications of the merger with Chrome will need significant contemplation." Given the heavy patent fees that Google is already paying to Microsoft and possible new penalties associated with infringing Oracle and Apple patents, it strongly appears that Google is contemplating a wholesale shift in Android. A new Android would no doubt also make it far more difficult if not impossible for device makers to adopt Android while excluding Google search, as the Kindle Fire and others have been doing with increasing frequency. Finally, it is likely that the new Android would available first on Google's Motorola phones, and that could provide valuable first-mover status to Moto that would show up on Google's bottom line --- possibly for years. But just how robust would the 'new' Android be if it lacked the IP Google violated? I think any effort by Google to establish a new OS would further fragment Android and weaken its growth prospects. |
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 15, 2013 4:37:42 GMT -8
So today's premarket is because the S4 is not as bad as feared? Please.
Even though the S4 _is_ a...curiosity in some regards, anyone who thinks HTC is gonna make a roaring comeback right away (because the One X is supposedly a better smartphone) needs to reevaluate their expectations.
Well, let's see how artificial this flimsy market rationale is. Maybe it is the start of a true sentiment change, but I'll believe it when I see over 440.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 4:43:31 GMT -8
You have to wonder to which demographic this was targeted. Seems to me that Samsung is being Samsung with a bevy of FEATURES in a feature saturated industry. The future is content consumption, and I saw very little of that being touted. |
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Mar 15, 2013 4:48:03 GMT -8
Here is an excellent comment from HORACE'S recent post: Hosni • 13 hours ago Horace, your final two sentences deserve comment: "Google reported that ... Android and Chrome would be under the same management ... the implications of the merger with Chrome will need significant contemplation." Given the heavy patent fees that Google is already paying to Microsoft and possible new penalties associated with infringing Oracle and Apple patents, it strongly appears that Google is contemplating a wholesale shift in Android. A new Android would no doubt also make it far more difficult if not impossible for device makers to adopt Android while excluding Google search, as the Kindle Fire and others have been doing with increasing frequency. Finally, it is likely that the new Android would available first on Google's Motorola phones, and that could provide valuable first-mover status to Moto that would show up on Google's bottom line --- possibly for years. Google has some very tough questions to answer regarding Android. They likely need new leadership to answer these and others: 1. What do they do about Motorola? The patent portfolio is not turning out to be of much use, and where are the flagship phones? 2. What can they do to start actually making some money from Android? 3. How are they going to deal with Samsung and others who are forking or may fork? 4. What are they going to do with manufacturers who use Android, but dump Google services like we see in China? 5. Android was supposed to be a way of assuring that Google services were front and center on the most mobile devices possible. With the Kindles, and the Chinese knockoffs, this vision is not being fulfilled. What is to stop Samsung from attempting to offer their own services and building an ecosystem to properly compete with Apple? They have to know that the game of hardware leapfrog will not be successful long term. Especially with the likes of ZTE, Huawei, and HTC starting to build solid Android phones. 6. Should Android continue to be free to all comers, no matter how supportive the manufacturer is to Google’s larger aspirations? Google has to know that activation counts are a hollow victory. They must be expecting more from Android. 7. What about Apple? Do they stick to the death match, or do they attempt to ensure their long term place within the iOS ecosystem? Home of the best customer base who will actually pay for apps and services. |
|
