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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 13:07:50 GMT -8
I've been saying it for two weeks now, and I will continue to say it:
When we see analyst price downgrades, accompanied by dismal predictions about unit shipments, and AAPL continues to have good days - we are passed the bottom and sentiment has turned.
Up until just a few weeks ago even the slightest rumour of slowdowns and analyst downgrades was enough to send AAPL to new lows, now its seemingly immune to FUD
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Post by hellojapan on Mar 15, 2013 13:14:08 GMT -8
Improved battery life will come from one or more of the following: 1. Better power density - not something Apple currently controls. They buy batteries just like everyone else. 2. Lower powered displays that do not compromise performance. Hopefully something that Apple gets exclusive access to, but no guarantees. 3. More efficient processor. Something that Apple can control. 4. More efficient radios. Just like batteries - right now Apple is just an integrator of third party products. Maybe this can be brought in house and improved, but so far there is no such evidence. If they wanted to Apple could just make a 5-inch iPhone 5 that keeps the 1136x640 resolution and uses basically the same components. You could fill all of the remaining space with battery and have a 5-inch iPhone on the market tomorrow with a real differentiating feature in true all-day battery life. Such an iPhone would have the same 264ppi as a retina iPad. m.imore.com/more-5-inch-iphone |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 13:17:52 GMT -8
A quick note on my venture into the wild. Last week I took Amtrak to Boston and then back on the weekend, attending a conference attracting about 10,000 academics and writers. On the train and at the convention, I saw one SIII, in the sweaty grip of a bearded 20 something male wearing a skull cap. Saw fewer than a dozen variations of Android phones. Everyone else was carrying an iPhone. This isn't meant to be a definitive survey, but if the SIII has taken over the U.S., I haven't seen it in the data or the wild. This is my experience as well (Pacific NW). In the last 12 months I've seen one (1) SIII in the wild. I live in the Inland Northwest (aka Spokane, WA). |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 13:25:22 GMT -8
I've been playing a slightly modified Poorman's Algo (holding until Wed pre- no short Wed-Fri)... After today's run, nervous about trying it this week - anybody else playing the Poorman here? I've been closing my positions on Thursday. Today I'm kicking myself - very hard. My decision to Close this next week will be made by OI ratios. The number of Open Puts has been declining Week over Week for the past 3 days. I'm going to be very interested in seeing what happened today (won't see until after midnight). |
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mark
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Post by mark on Mar 15, 2013 13:32:31 GMT -8
In the lead-up to the Samsung event, the media was building it up as if Samsung was going to blow away Apple. The day after, they have realised that - in the phone space - there's only so much real innovation before everything is just gimmicks. That's why Samsung had to pull that whole Broadway show rigmarole. Ultimately, as with luxury cars, it's really about polish and quality of finish - that's where the real money is made. I was invited to test-drive an Infiniti recently, and I nearly laughed out loud when the salesperson demonstrated the in-car scent...basically, the air-conditioner can be programmed to emit 'forest scents'. WHAT?! If this is the case, and it may well be, then it means that Apple's main profit-producing product is right at the cusp of beginning to become a commodity item. And that means that a new blockbuster product line needs to be released before that trend solidifies. |
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Mar 15, 2013 13:55:45 GMT -8
Does anyone else feel similarities between the S IV release blitz and the one for Surface. I want the say the "aesthetics" of the experience, but that's note quite right. A few items to consider:
. Lots of pre-hype (admittedly by MS apologists only on that side)
. Cringe-worthy "theatrical" productions, flash mobs and Broadway
. Deferred release dates
. Some "features" that have people scratching their heads
. Long term platform strategy issues, Android forking and ARM/Wintel
Not to sound like a TC apologist, but I feel that a significant factor in all of these is the focus on making money versus making great products.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 15, 2013 13:59:14 GMT -8
Just because a company is getting gimmicky doesn't mean there isn't room to innovate.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 14:20:38 GMT -8
Does anyone else feel similarities between the S IV release blitz and the one for Surface. I want the say the "aesthetics" of the experience, but that's note quite right. A few items to consider: . Lots of pre-hype (admittedly by MS apologists only on that side) . Cringe-worthy "theatrical" productions, flash mobs and Broadway . Deferred release dates . Some "features" that have people scratching their heads . Long term platform strategy issues, Android forking and ARM/Wintel Not to sound like a TC apologist, but I feel that a significant factor in all of these is the focus on making money versus making great products. Don't fool yourself into thinking the S4 will be a flop. Due simply to Samsung's massive manufacturing, distribution and marketing capabilities the S4 will be either the best or 2nd best selling phone this year alongside the iPhone. Even if another company came out with a revolutionary smartphone, the fact is that no one other than Samsung and Apple have the supply chain & manufacturing capabilities to ship a single high end smartphone model in volumes anywhere near as high as Apple or Samsung, without many months, perhaps years, of capital investment. |
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 15, 2013 14:32:19 GMT -8
They'll sell a lot of s4's for sure, but its not an iPhone killer... not even close. Samsung has jumped the shark and a lot of fandroids are now looking at the HTC one as 'the' flavor of the quarter or two. And when Apple releases a new headset, it will be Samsung who is vulnerable, not the other way around as were expectations.
Combine that with moving away from android with tizen and competition from google/Motorola, it is samsung whose future looks uncertain
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 15:18:26 GMT -8
Improved battery life will come from one or more of the following: 1. Better power density - not something Apple currently controls. They buy batteries just like everyone else. 2. Lower powered displays that do not compromise performance. Hopefully something that Apple gets exclusive access to, but no guarantees. 3. More efficient processor. Something that Apple can control. 4. More efficient radios. Just like batteries - right now Apple is just an integrator of third party products. Maybe this can be brought in house and improved, but so far there is no such evidence. If they wanted to Apple could just make a 5-inch iPhone 5 that keeps the 1136x640 resolution and uses basically the same components. You could fill all of the remaining space with battery and have a 5-inch iPhone on the market tomorrow with a real differentiating feature in true all-day battery life. Such an iPhone would have the same 264ppi as a retina iPad. m.imore.com/more-5-inch-iphoneAgreed. I hope Apple considers releasing the 5s alongside a 5+ (4.9") to give customers that choice. Apple has the iPad mini and the iPad. It's consistent with Apple's product DNA to differentiate product by size and size alone. |
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Post by tuffett on Mar 15, 2013 15:20:33 GMT -8
They'll sell a lot of s4's for sure, but its not an iPhone killer... not even close. Samsung has jumped the shark and a lot of fandroids are now looking at the HTC one as 'the' flavor of the quarter or two. And when Apple releases a new headset, it will be Samsung who is vulnerable, not the other way around as were expectations. Combine that with moving away from android with tizen and competition from google/Motorola, it is samsung whose future looks uncertain The question is not if the iPhone will be "killed" - it obviously won't. The question is, since growth in the smartphone market is slowing significantly, is if iPhones can continue to show strong growth amid all the competition without dropping margins. That is certainly up in the air going forward. AAPL is a superb value stock. Is it also a growth stock? That's what is uncertain. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 15:27:20 GMT -8
Does anyone else feel similarities between the S IV release blitz and the one for Surface. I want to say the "aesthetics" of the experience, but that's note quite right. How does "essence" feel? |
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 15, 2013 15:43:37 GMT -8
The question is not if the iPhone will be "killed" - it obviously won't. The question is, since growth in the smartphone market is slowing significantly, is if iPhones can continue to show strong growth amid all the competition without dropping margins. That is certainly up in the air going forward. AAPL is a superb value stock. Is it also a growth stock? That's what is uncertain. Lets say that Apple releases an iPhone + and peels off half of the galaxy sIII and siv customers in the next cycle (conservative according to Schillers number) then that represents an almost 15-25% upside iPhone growth right there. It baffles me that some people on this board (and elsewhere) don't get it... |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2013 15:44:08 GMT -8
Don't fool yourself into thinking the S4 will be a flop. Due simply to Samsung's massive manufacturing, distribution and marketing capabilities the S4 will be either the best or 2nd best selling phone this year alongside the iPhone. I give that sentiment a great big thumbs down. I saw nothing yesterday to make me think the majority of the world is suddenly going to want a 5" handset, running Android in a plastic case, with limited integration to your computer/devices, and limited ecosystem. No matter how you cut it, the S4 is a refreshed S3. During the all important December quarter, the iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 both outsold the S3. My guess is that the iPhone 5 will outsell the S4 during the June, September and December quarters. That would make the S4 the #3 selling handset during the December quarter. Now the above doesn't mean that the S4 will be a general flop. Motorola, Nokia, HTC and RIMM all wish they were as far along. Two or more of these are going to merge with someone else, or get bought out this year. |
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Post by tuffett on Mar 15, 2013 16:05:07 GMT -8
The question is not if the iPhone will be "killed" - it obviously won't. The question is, since growth in the smartphone market is slowing significantly, is if iPhones can continue to show strong growth amid all the competition without dropping margins. That is certainly up in the air going forward. AAPL is a superb value stock. Is it also a growth stock? That's what is uncertain. Lets say that Apple releases an iPhone + and peels off half of the galaxy sIII and siv customers in the next cycle (conservative according to Schillers number) then that represents an almost 15-25% upside iPhone growth right there. It baffles me that some people on this board (and elsewhere) don't get it... And it baffles me how overly optimistic people are. The iPhone+ isn't here yet and nobody knows when or if it will come. Half of S3/S4 users switching is an absolute joke. That's not at all what Schiller said. The factors you mention represent potential or possible growth, which is exactly my point. Apple needs something new to ensure growth. It's far from a certainty at this point in time. |
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Post by Lstream on Mar 15, 2013 16:06:15 GMT -8
Don't fool yourself into thinking the S4 will be a flop. Due simply to Samsung's massive manufacturing, distribution and marketing capabilities the S4 will be either the best or 2nd best selling phone this year alongside the iPhone. I give that sentiment a great big thumbs down. I saw nothing yesterday to make me think the majority of the world is suddenly going to want a 5" handset, running Android in a plastic case, with limited integration to your computer/devices, and limited ecosystem. No matter how you cut it, the S4 is a refreshed S3. During the all important December quarter, the iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 both outsold the S3. My guess is that the iPhone 5 will outsell the S4 during the June, September and December quarters. That would make the S4 the #3 selling handset during the December quarter. Now the above doesn't mean that the S4 will be a general flop. Motorola, Nokia, HTC and RIMM all wish they were as far along. Two or more of these are going to merge with someone else, or get bought out this year. The Android customer base has a lot of other choices now, and I doubt there is much loyalty to Samsung compared to say HTC. So even without the Apple threat, I think they can expect to have problems with the other hoards of decent Android phones that have caught up or passed them. Plus they have no ecosystem to drive customer stickiness. |
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Post by sponge on Mar 15, 2013 16:24:29 GMT -8
The bottom line is that 30% of Android customers are moving to Apple after their contract is done. Samsung is especially seeing that here in the US. Their CEO basically confirmed that and that it why they debut the S4 here in the US.
The cell phone market will be radically different by the end of 2014.
I have never been more bullish on the long term health of Apple. Its best and brightest days are in the future.
The stuff they are working on will blow people away but we must be patient. This storm will pass and we won't be talking about Samsung and Google in three years like we stopped talking about RIMM and MS as real threats.
MS is doing awful with the Surface and enterprise will not move to Smasung but Apple in response. Even Smasung's CEO was coy about identifying the corporate customers they have. Apple is open about it and they are only getting started.
I am telling you folks 2016 is the year we will remember like 2007. That is the year we will a radically different iPhone that no one can copy.
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 15, 2013 16:38:56 GMT -8
And it baffles me how overly optimistic people are. The iPhone+ isn't here yet and nobody knows when or if it will come. Half of S3/S4 users switching is an absolute joke. That's not at all what Schiller said. The factors you mention represent potential or possible growth, which is exactly my point. Apple needs something new to ensure growth. It's far from a certainty at this point in time. Its just dumb to think they aren't going to make it eventually. And Schiller "Apple’s own research shows that four times as many iPhone users switched from Android than to Android during the fourth quarter, according to company research." thats way more than half according to Apple. So whatever you do the math... You have to look at the size of the market segment you are considering. and ask, can Apple take 10% 20% 30% 40%50%, and the answer is absolutely yes. Right now Apple has 0% of that market. 0% to whatever number is pure growth... |
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Post by tuffett on Mar 15, 2013 16:49:22 GMT -8
And it baffles me how overly optimistic people are. The iPhone+ isn't here yet and nobody knows when or if it will come. Half of S3/S4 users switching is an absolute joke. That's not at all what Schiller said. The factors you mention represent potential or possible growth, which is exactly my point. Apple needs something new to ensure growth. It's far from a certainty at this point in time. Its just dumb to think they aren't going to make it eventually. And "Apple’s own research shows that four times as many iPhone users switched from Android than to Android during the fourth quarter, according to company research." thats way more than half according to Apple. So whatever you do the math... You have to look at the size of the market segment you are considering. and ask, can Apple take 10% 20% 30% 40%50%, and the answer is absolutely yes. Right now Apple has 0% of that market. 0% to whatever number is pure growth... Are you kidding? There's no way to determine that it's half unless you have a number. To explain it via an absurd example, his statement would be true if one iPhone user switched to Android and four Android users switched to iPhone. Also if Android has 80% marketshare and iOS 20%, then on a percentage basis the switchers between both platforms is equal at 4:1, indicating that iOS is no more sticky than Android. I don't believe this to be entirely true but I'm showing you how Schiller's stat is not as huge of a deal as you imply. It may be stupid to think a bigger phone isn't coming. I never said it isn't coming. I said there are concerns about the existing product line. The fact that Cook touts the 4" form factor as ideal and even ran a commercial highlighting it may indicate a larger phone isn't coming anytime soon. It certainly isn't stupid to draw that conclusion. The longer Apple waits, the longer Samsung has to build a competitive ecosystem, the longer Android users will have to buy apps in Google Play and get entrenched in that ecosystem, and more reluctant they will be to switch. Make sense? |
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Post by ammaroo1 on Mar 15, 2013 16:52:25 GMT -8
Are you kidding? There's no way to determine that it's half unless you have a number. To explain it via an absurd example, his statement would be true if one iPhone user switched to Android and four Android users switched to iPhone. Thats exactly what he's saying. I used 50% as a conservative number. I'll just chalk you up to another one who doesn't get it... |
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Post by tuffett on Mar 15, 2013 16:53:57 GMT -8
Are you kidding? There's no way to determine that it's half unless you have a number. To explain it via an absurd example, his statement would be true if one iPhone user switched to Android and four Android users switched to iPhone. Thats exactly what he's saying. I used 50% as a conservative number. I'll just chalk you up to another one who doesn't get it... Please show me the math behind your determination that half of S3 users would switch to a 5" iPhone. Go ahead, I'm waiting. Go ahead and chalk me up. While you're at it, learn some basic mathematics please so we can have a meaningful discussion. |
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Post by sponge on Mar 15, 2013 16:59:54 GMT -8
Apple does not see Samsung as a threat. Only WS and those with weak knees. Apple ecosystem is growing and Samsung has no ecosystem. They are trying but it is too late. Android customers buy for specs and cheap stuff. The real money is in high end phones and Apple knows they are the king in that. Samsung is selling phones like Nokia did at one time. In two years that ride will come to an end. It started last quarter. The 4S outsold the S3 in the biggest market for high end phones. The US leads the educated and affluent follow in the rest of the world. Samsung is getting attacked in that market by Apple in the consumer market and the courts. They are losing in both. In the rest of the world the non brand cheap Chinese market will eat them up for lunch. They can't keep spending $30 a phone on marketing. MS spend $1billion on the surface and it crashed and burned.
Apple is in the drivers seat because consumers love the brand and are willing to pay more for their superior products. Taking 70% of the smartphone profits is the proof. Wait until Samsung loses that 34% of profit level. They will crash and burn faster then they went up by cheating and spending billions on marketing.
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Post by jcaron on Mar 16, 2013 6:58:28 GMT -8
Apple does not see Samsung as a threat. Only WS and those with weak knees. You mean like RIMM did not see apple as a threat?  To ignore the competition is foolhardy at best. Apple should do what they do best but to proceed as though they own the world will be the first indication to me its time to sell out of apple stock and buy into a company that that will not stick its head in the sand even after a few bad quarters just like RIMM did. |
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Post by Lstream on Mar 16, 2013 7:24:26 GMT -8
Apple does not see Samsung as a threat. Only WS and those with weak knees. You mean like RIMM did not see apple as a threat? To ignore the competition is foolhardy at best. Apple should do what they do best but to proceed as though they own the world will be the first indication to me its time to sell out of apple stock and buy into a company that that will not stick its head in the sand even after a few bad quarters just like RIMM did. Door # 2 is that Sponge does not actually know what Apple thinks. |
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To ignore the competition is foolhardy at best. Apple should do what they do best but to proceed as though they own the world will be the first indication to me its time to sell out of apple stock and buy into a company that that will not stick its head in the sand even after a few bad quarters just like RIMM did.