Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Sept 16, 2022 1:21:45 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Sept 16, 2022 1:54:02 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2022 6:09:27 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2022 8:26:51 GMT -8
Today doesn’t feel like the bottom. Any bounce near 150 gets sold down.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2022 8:45:18 GMT -8
Today doesn’t feel like the bottom. Any bounce near 150 gets sold down. This is a bit like a power outage, with no obvious cause like a storm. After the first 10 or 20 minutes, where often things come back to life if it’s a quick fix, you just don’t know the timeframe. And even the official people that might have the most info and most accurate guess, just give a vague “equipment error” (“we’ll raise rates until it’s fixed”), not giving much to go on. The power will come on eventually, or at least that is the working assumption that historically has been accurate. But we’ll just have to wait for it. Btw, my power is out right now, going on 1.5 hours. Normally I’d just ignore it and go do something outside, but the AQI is above 300, thick with wildfire smoke. Like AAPL and the market, things will clean up at some point. But guesses at an exact timeframe are just that, guesses. (EDIT: FWIW, it came back on, 2 minutes later. I don't think we'll be so lucky with the timeframe on the market.)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 16, 2022 8:48:26 GMT -8
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2022 8:54:10 GMT -8
Today doesn’t feel like the bottom. Any bounce near 150 gets sold down. This is a bit like a power outage, with no obvious cause like a storm. After the first 10 or 20 minutes, where often things come back to life if it’s a quick fix, you just don’t know the timeframe. And even the official people that might have the most info and most accurate guess, just give a vague “equipment error” (“we’ll raise rates until it’s fixed”), not giving much to go on. The power will come on eventually, or at least that is the working assumption that historically has been accurate. But we’ll just have to wait for it. Btw, my power is out right now, going on 1.5 hours. Normally I’d just ignore it and go do something outside, but the AQI is above 300, thick with wildfire smoke. Like AAPL and the market, things will clean up at some point. But guesses at an exact timeframe are just that, guesses. The reason for today’s selling is that Fedex had a big revenue warning. FedEx has long been seen as a weathervane for the economy. They’re restatement talked about how they see continued weakness on the economy ahead. FedEx stock is down 20% today and contagion went into all other sectors. amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/16/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.htmlSo it’s connected to Fed malaise, but it’s more specific. Fed hiking policy has started to damage the economy (that’s the goal of it after all — and the mechanism by which it affects inflation)
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Sept 16, 2022 9:46:28 GMT -8
This is a bit like a power outage, with no obvious cause like a storm. After the first 10 or 20 minutes, where often things come back to life if it’s a quick fix, you just don’t know the timeframe. And even the official people that might have the most info and most accurate guess, just give a vague “equipment error” (“we’ll raise rates until it’s fixed”), not giving much to go on. The power will come on eventually, or at least that is the working assumption that historically has been accurate. But we’ll just have to wait for it. Btw, my power is out right now, going on 1.5 hours. Normally I’d just ignore it and go do something outside, but the AQI is above 300, thick with wildfire smoke. Like AAPL and the market, things will clean up at some point. But guesses at an exact timeframe are just that, guesses. The reason for today’s selling is that Fedex had a big revenue warning. FedEx has long been seen as a weathervane for the economy. They’re restatement talked about how they see continued weakness on the economy ahead. FedEx stock is down 20% today and contagion went into all other sectors. amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/16/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.htmlSo it’s connected to Fed malaise, but it’s more specific. Fed hiking policy has started to damage the economy (that’s the goal of it after all — and the mechanism by which it affects inflation) FedEx definitely has issues. I wonder if UPS will also have to say something. Increasingly, I notice that my Amazon purchases (I have MANY of them!) are being delivered by Amazon trucks or some other carrier (USPS, LS, local delivery service, etc) and very rarely by UPS anymore. And never by FedEx in recent memory.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2022 10:16:52 GMT -8
This is a bit like a power outage, with no obvious cause like a storm. After the first 10 or 20 minutes, where often things come back to life if it’s a quick fix, you just don’t know the timeframe. And even the official people that might have the most info and most accurate guess, just give a vague “equipment error” (“we’ll raise rates until it’s fixed”), not giving much to go on. The power will come on eventually, or at least that is the working assumption that historically has been accurate. But we’ll just have to wait for it. Btw, my power is out right now, going on 1.5 hours. Normally I’d just ignore it and go do something outside, but the AQI is above 300, thick with wildfire smoke. Like AAPL and the market, things will clean up at some point. But guesses at an exact timeframe are just that, guesses. The reason for today’s selling is that Fedex had a big revenue warning. FedEx has long been seen as a weathervane for the economy. They’re restatement talked about how they see continued weakness on the economy ahead. FedEx stock is down 20% today and contagion went into all other sectors. amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/16/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.htmlSo it’s connected to Fed malaise, but it’s more specific. Fed hiking policy has started to damage the economy (that’s the goal of it after all — and the mechanism by which it affects inflation) Yep. But this is the expected result of increasing interest rates in an attempt to slow down the economy to slow down inflation. It is doing what they are trying to do. Things are in the glide path. OTOH, the market is hoping that the worst is behind us, especially since the market likes to look ~6 months ahead. We're just not there yet, though people like to hope otherwise. And so when FedEx says things aren't great and they are unsure about the future so they don't give guidance, that just helps point out that we're just not there yet. The Fed doesn't currently know exactly how much they will have to raise rates, over exactly what timeframe. And if they don't know, then what does the market know? But everyone makes guesses, bullish or bearish.
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Post by nwjade on Sept 16, 2022 10:22:45 GMT -8
Definitely an incentive for market makers having aapl close 150+ today, will it happen?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2022 10:41:59 GMT -8
Definitely an incentive for market makers having aapl close 150+ today, will it happen?
Nice point! The daily volume on both the calls and puts is high enough that they could all be closed out already More likely more than a few of those are opening new positions, and this is going to be one of those days where it's pinned within a few cents of the strike. Stock volume is at 83M. I'm thinking this will be another 100+M day, and that volume will be sizable in the last 5 minutes. But the setup is in, bouncing a little above $150, and then back towards it. This seems too early for the "lead out", but...
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 16, 2022 11:00:05 GMT -8
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Post by nwjade on Sept 16, 2022 11:03:46 GMT -8
Definitely an incentive for market makers having aapl close 150+ today, will it happen?
Nice point! The daily volume on both the calls and puts is high enough that they could all be closed out already More likely more than a few of those are opening new positions, and this is going to be one of those days where it's pinned within a few cents of the strike. Stock volume is at 83M. I'm thinking this will be another 100+M day, and that volume will be sizable in the last 5 minutes. But the setup is in, bouncing a little above $150, and then back towards it. This seems too early for the "lead out", but... Quad witching day...
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Post by kpas1 on Sept 16, 2022 11:36:07 GMT -8
Nice point! The daily volume on both the calls and puts is high enough that they could all be closed out already More likely more than a few of those are opening new positions, and this is going to be one of those days where it's pinned within a few cents of the strike. Stock volume is at 83M. I'm thinking this will be another 100+M day, and that volume will be sizable in the last 5 minutes. But the setup is in, bouncing a little above $150, and then back towards it. This seems too early for the "lead out", but... Quad witching day... I sell strangles (call+put) every week against longer dated in-the-money positions. It's been rough going this year, but that's another story. When I sell to open, I have no way of knowing if the other party is an MM or another retail investor like me. If it's an MM, then they are long the put on expiration day. My point is you can't assume the MMs are just writing options. Sometimes they buy the other side when someone writes to open. Or they need to be long a position to hedge something else. In any case, whoever sold the put will be happy if it expires worthless, i.e., if AAPL is >150 (where it seems to be headed). Unless of course their aim was to have the shares put to them at $150.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 16, 2022 14:21:41 GMT -8
I was at Apple Store South Coast Plaza (Costa Mesa, CA) today for my broken iPad, but yes I chose today to see the new iPhone, and yes there were what we'll call medium lines after watching that NY store queue. South Coast Plaza is the mall with the largest revenues in the world, AFAIK. There are like 6-7 Swiss watch boutiques there. Looks like I am going with the 14 Max Pro. I got fooled on screen size comparisons with my 8+ because the bezels have shrunk to zero now. DUH!
Not sure about that always-on display though. The idea makes me nervous.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2022 16:05:19 GMT -8
More likely more than a few of those are opening new positions, and this is going to be one of those days where it's pinned within a few cents of the strike. Stock volume is at 83M. I'm thinking this will be another 100+M day, and that volume will be sizable in the last 5 minutes. But the setup is in, bouncing a little above $150, and then back towards it. This seems too early for the "lead out", but... So it didn't pin quite to 150, but look at that volume!!! Blue always said it took a bad day to get the volume up, implying that if big players wanted to buy, the price went down instead of up. I don't know about that, but it is intriguing to see volumes in AAPL and volumes in indexes, and to see when it matters a lot, when it matters some, and when it doesn't matter much. FWIW, looking at the past year, there weren't too many volumes this high. A day in May (yes, that rhymes). 2 in January. And a monster 195M in December!!! finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history?p=AAPLSo this volume was only seen 5 times in the last year, including today. FWIW, the 2 days that saw intradays in the 129's, in the middle of June, were 108M and 134M, compared today's 164M. Volume isn't everything, but it is important. As chinacat said, "Have a great weekend, everyone!". Offhand, and without outside events, I imagine Monday will recover at least a little. There's a lot to absorb out there, and we can't really see the end of the tunnel. OTOH, it's not that terrible out there compared to visual and actuals from 2000/2008/2020. And JD is buying a new iPhone, so strike that up as one for the team. Go Apple, even is AAPL might be a little delayed.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2022 16:17:59 GMT -8
Not sure about that always-on display though. The idea makes me nervous. Yea, even my 11 is a little twitchy with trying to authenticate. I only halfway look at it, and... OTOH, with that version, if it is upside down, rotated 180 degrees, it doesn't like it. My cheap case doesn't have an easy way to feel that, but just a couple bumps on the bottom would let me know what way it was facing. I'm not so sure on the "always on" iPhone or Watch, but traditionally that is what happens at least with a LCD watch, and it even has a simple tiny battery that lasts years. My son's Apple Watch SE has done well, and we'll add at least one more to the mix this year. But, while young enough that we are less worried about the EKG and fall detection, it's still in the "fun toy" category. Maybe I'll pick up a couple for my parents, just because. I'm not worried about them falling, or their hearts, but you never know. And that's what is interesting about the Apple Watch, hitting both the average or above athletes (Aye!), but also the safety concerned older age-range. Congrats JD! I'm tempted to pick up a non-pro 14 (my wife's 13 pro is heavy!), but we'll see. It really depends on if our 3rd kid should have an iPhone, and we should shuffle the 2nd and 3rd gen SE's down to her.
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