Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Sept 20, 2022 1:03:29 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Sept 20, 2022 1:32:02 GMT -8
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 20, 2022 7:11:27 GMT -8
"That means that investors should be mostly, if not entirely, in cash." What great advice. I'll just sell all my stocks, pay capital gains on them, and hope I can time this all of perfectly to buy back my stocks at a price that will be low enough to pay for the taxes I just paid, plus some profits, versus just holding my stocks and riding all of this out. I'm sure that's what Warren Buffett is doing. With advice like this, who needs crypto spam?
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on Sept 20, 2022 8:09:02 GMT -8
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 20, 2022 8:11:00 GMT -8
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Sept 20, 2022 8:28:04 GMT -8
"That means that investors should be mostly, if not entirely, in cash." What great advice. I'll just sell all my stocks, pay capital gains on them, and hope I can time this all of perfectly to buy back my stocks at a price that will be low enough to pay for the taxes I just paid, plus some profits, versus just holding my stocks and riding all of this out. I'm sure that's what Warren Buffett is doing. With advice like this, who needs crypto spam? Yea, that advice seems pretty targeted to a certain group that wants to trade in and out and basically do something. And ideally come out ahead. It's a bit like explaining how to take a turn to all general drivers, when the audience you have in mind is aggressive go kart drivers on a track. "Take it hard and fast, hitting the apex and powering out of there. On a really tight turn, break just a little before the turn. You can also power-slide around it. And I can't officially say that in certain setups you can come in too hot and tap someone on the outside of the curve to keep inside." That might sound great to the certain group, but apply it to a turn on a country road, with or without guardrails, gravel, or ice, and it just doesn't match up. Especially across all drivers, including the one pulling the horse trailer. It's one thing to want to understand what ups and downs might be set to happen. It's another to want to trade them. And it's a curious third one to want to trade them, but in a manner thought of as more safe, and yet do so by using generic ideas put in place before the actions happen. As an outsider to that, it seems like fake safety. But I can understand how this could appeal to some people at various stages of their investment career. I wouldn't suggest it. But I can see the appeal, of hoping to beat the system, beat the market, by doing something. Just like all of those "We put a buy point in AAPL 12 points higher than the current price". It depends on if you are going after milder gains in order to have less perceived risk through lower volatility. But part of that is deciding on what "risk" is to someone. Are they really scared of volatility, or it just doesn't let them sleep well and could potentially cause them to sell out early at a loss? With a solid medium or large company, that really is what "risk" is. But that also means holding through the ups and especially the downs. I'll take that volatility if it results in higher net gains. But that's something I can say after 25 years in the market, as a long term investor. It's a much different concept to someone newer to investing.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on Sept 20, 2022 9:12:02 GMT -8
I look at it this way - 0.5% ==> market will shoot up and a "new bull" will begin, the reasoning will be "oh, the fed is starting to back off". 0.75% ==> market will muddle along and probably trend lower until the next fed-speak event, if fed-speak is dovish it may rise a bit, if hawkish will drop some more. 1.00% ==> market will drop like a rock, with the reasoning being "oh boy, the fed has much more data than we do, and they see bad stuff coming inflation-wise" "That means that investors should be mostly, if not entirely, in cash." What great advice. I'll just sell all my stocks, pay capital gains on them, and hope I can time this all of perfectly to buy back my stocks at a price that will be low enough to pay for the taxes I just paid, plus some profits, versus just holding my stocks and riding all of this out. I'm sure that's what Warren Buffett is doing. Yep. This advice is only good for people who can time the market reliably. And nobody can do that, not even WEB. There are a few, very few, people who can time large events in a "gross" manner (i.e. get out 10-20% less than the high, and get back in 10-20% above the low), and that's pretty good, but large events typically only occur 3 to 6 times in ones lifetime. These are examples of what I consider to be large events (in my lifetime): * Early 70s oil shock * Reagan and new tax/fed paradigm killing inflation for nearly 40 years. All time best investment was 30-year treasury bonds at 13+%, "best" in the sense of risk-adjusted returns. * Black Monday in 1987 (I was long NYA options and they all went to zero) * GFC (shoulda bought the S&P at 666, lucky number!) * Covid shock I've read comments by one guy on a message board that was able to well time the GFC, and kind of time the Covid shock.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Sept 20, 2022 9:45:10 GMT -8
"That means that investors should be mostly, if not entirely, in cash." What great advice. I'll just sell all my stocks, pay capital gains on them, and hope I can time this all of perfectly to buy back my stocks at a price that will be low enough to pay for the taxes I just paid, plus some profits, versus just holding my stocks and riding all of this out. I'm sure that's what Warren Buffett is doing. With advice like this, who needs crypto spam? This site was aimed at the overall market, not specifically Apple, but as the market goes so goes Apple. I can’t be sure, but I would guess that there were a lot of people that were heavily invested in General Motors that would have loved hearing this advice back in 2008/09 and had been wise enough to have moved on it. And no I’m not making a connection between GM and AAPL, other than GM was at one point in history the big dog of the market as AAPL is now. But, many people hold their investments in IRA’s and don’t have the tax burden. So for them it’s likely good advice. Crypto spam? That’s great advice.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Sept 20, 2022 10:31:55 GMT -8
Looks like 3900 didn't hold on the S&P. Bad moon rising? Europes energy crises is stunning since a few short years ago Oil was so low that wells were shutting down. Energy is like broadband, the more wind and solar you have the better. Nuclear and fossil are stop gaps until abundant energy can be produced, more than is needed. Crypto should be heavily taxed to build solar or wind to compensate + 10% for energy wasted on same. Carter had the right idea, but I look around CA and see more Teslas than solar roofs. If you don't have solar you can't buy an EV that should be the rule. That would create a market for wind and solar or geothermal. Just like the EVs have craeted markets for their recharging wagons that run on fossil fuels.
Maybe Apple can actually solve the real problem of cars which is energy not lack of drives.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Sept 20, 2022 10:47:53 GMT -8
Buy and hold vs trade and time.
Their paths directly crossed on Aug. 6 1997 when Gates' Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) invested $150 million in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), in exchange for shares in the company, which was on the edge of bankruptcy.
By 2003, Microsoft had sold its entire stake in Apple for $550 million.
Apple stock is trading at $157.56 right now — if Microsoft held its position until today, it would be worth $159.74 billion.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Sept 20, 2022 11:49:15 GMT -8
What Is Capitulation?Are we there yet? In the financial crash of 2008/09 how far would the market have fallen if the Feds hadn't stepped in with lower interest rates and quantitative easing? I doubt that the market will be seeing that again. Just sayin'.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 20, 2022 11:50:06 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Sept 20, 2022 12:39:05 GMT -8
Thanks Archibaldtuttle for the reminder about how we got here. Unfortunately few people know or even care to learn about the degree of danger faced.
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Sept 20, 2022 13:03:44 GMT -8
Thanks Archibaldtuttle for the reminder about how we got here. Unfortunately few people know or even care to learn about the degree of danger faced. If you’re younger and still contributing to your 401k, you should keep doing so. I’m not young so I sold all stock In my personal account including Apple at around $180, got lucky with the timing I guess. i paid a hefty tax bill but I’d be down twice that amount on paper if I was still holding the stock so I feel good about it. I won’t get back in until it feels right to me, after the war and after the Fed is done tightening. Everyone needs to do their own research and decide on a strategy that will work for them and allow them to sleep well at night imo. I still believe Apple is the greatest stock to own right now and into the future. I will be getting back in for sure. Oh yea, i need to share my brilliant crypto strategy for all the gamblers out there: I’ll wait until it’s down 90% before deciding how much money to bet.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 20, 2022 13:23:19 GMT -8
Looks like 3900 didn't hold on the S&P. Bad moon rising? Europes energy crises is stunning since a few short years ago Oil was so low that wells were shutting down. Energy is like broadband, the more wind and solar you have the better. Nuclear and fossil are stop gaps until abundant energy can be produced, more than is needed. Crypto should be heavily taxed to build solar or wind to compensate + 10% for energy wasted on same. Carter had the right idea, but I look around CA and see more Teslas than solar roofs. If you don't have solar you can't buy an EV that should be the rule. That would create a market for wind and solar or geothermal. Just like the EVs have craeted markets for their recharging wagons that run on fossil fuels. Maybe Apple can actually solve the real problem of cars which is energy not lack of drives. LOL solar and wind, that's working out great for Europe. They were warned about relying on the Ruskies, but they laughed. Not laughing now, as their citizens are facing freezing to death this winter.
Solar can't even consistently produce power in the sunniest, hottest, most arid region on earth, the Mojave Desert. Solar doesn't work at night (or in most regions during the day half the year), and batteries would cost trillions and there isn't even enough lithium available for these silly car mandates California is childishly fantasizing about, let alone 12-16 hours of battery backup for home and businesses. Lithium and cobalt mining is an ecological nightmare, and don't even get me started on disposal of batteries and solar panels when they are end of life. For what, a brief little window of carbon neutrality, as China poops out endless coal factories (while they lobby the west to go "green")? Religious nuttery. Drill baby drill.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 20, 2022 14:53:23 GMT -8
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on Sept 20, 2022 15:30:40 GMT -8
"That means that investors should be mostly, if not entirely, in cash." What great advice. I'll just sell all my stocks, pay capital gains on them, and hope I can time this all of perfectly to buy back my stocks at a price that will be low enough to pay for the taxes I just paid, plus some profits, versus just holding my stocks and riding all of this out. I'm sure that's what Warren Buffett is doing. With advice like this, who needs crypto spam? This site was aimed at the overall market, not specifically Apple, but as the market goes so goes Apple. Maybe directionally, but not necessarily the same magnitude. If the market goes down 30% and Apple goes down 25%, then Apple is still beating the market by 5%. And if later the market goes up by 30% and Apple goes up by 35%, then Apple is yet again beating the market by 5%.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Sept 20, 2022 16:03:28 GMT -8
Thanks Archibaldtuttle for the reminder about how we got here. Unfortunately few people know or even care to learn about the degree of danger faced. If you’re younger and still contributing to your 401k, you should keep doing so. I’m not young so I sold all stock In my personal account including Apple at around $180, got lucky with the timing I guess. i paid a hefty tax bill but I’d be down twice that amount on paper if I was still holding the stock so I feel good about it. I won’t get back in until it feels right to me, after the war and after the Fed is done tightening. Everyone needs to do their own research and decide on a strategy that will work for them and allow them to sleep well at night imo. I still believe Apple is the greatest stock to own right now and into the future. I will be getting back in for sure. Oh yea, i need to share my brilliant crypto strategy for all the gamblers out there: I’ll wait until it’s down 90% before deciding how much money to bet. Contrats on timing selling all your Apple @ $180. I'm not tracking the reentry logic of waiting until after the war and Fed tightening. IE if 1K shares are sold @ $180 and capital gains tax is 20%, to break even when Apple's stock price returns to $180 1K shares would have to be purchased @ $144.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Sept 20, 2022 17:01:07 GMT -8
If you’re younger and still contributing to your 401k, you should keep doing so. I’m not young so I sold all stock In my personal account including Apple at around $180, got lucky with the timing I guess. i paid a hefty tax bill but I’d be down twice that amount on paper if I was still holding the stock so I feel good about it. I won’t get back in until it feels right to me, after the war and after the Fed is done tightening. Everyone needs to do their own research and decide on a strategy that will work for them and allow them to sleep well at night imo. I still believe Apple is the greatest stock to own right now and into the future. I will be getting back in for sure. Oh yea, i need to share my brilliant crypto strategy for all the gamblers out there: I’ll wait until it’s down 90% before deciding how much money to bet. Contrats on timing selling all your Apple @ $180. I'm not tracking the reentry logic of waiting until after the war and Fed tightening. IE if 1K shares are sold @ $180 and capital gains tax is 20%, to break even when Apple's stock price returns to $180 1K shares would have to be purchased @ $144. He probably didn't have a net cost of 0. But that is always the question, if you are assuming your end-of-life cost basis doesn't matter, which under current IRS rules it doesn't. If we care about cost basis and only figuring it out for our own life, then selling at say 180 and buying back at say 160 is still a good thing. And if you beat those numbers, then even better. There's only so much you can do with a taxable account, if you start calculating in post-life totals. But if looking at your current valuations, and not worrying about current post-life issues which are currently at just over $25M for a couple, you do find ways to make a little profit off of a downturn if things are visible enough. And one biggie, which we scooped up in ~2007, is switching a IRA to a Roth. I won't bother giving exacts, but when combined with AAPL, we paid a small amount in taxes in ~2007 on converting an IRA to a Roth, and now have a large amount that is post-tax. It's not always that easy, even when looking in retrospect. But it is an option to take a look at. FWIW, I think Gregg said a similar thing, in 2008-2010, for a medical spending account. A roth vs IRA isn't the only thing that can pay off. But it is one of the ways that can pay off nicely especially is you time the market at least a little better than the average. Good luck out there! Let's see what the Fed says tomorrow. I expect it is inline with the negativity, and while I want a touch of positivity, that's just not what the market really should have right not. On the proper level, the statement will be flat while saying "we'll keep an eye out on things, just in case". But we'll have to see.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Sept 20, 2022 17:41:03 GMT -8
Yea, I get that in his case he probably didn't have a net cost 0. I was just trying to illustrate the peril of market timing in a taxable account. Heck I'm afraid to do it even within my IRA...
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Sept 20, 2022 20:25:40 GMT -8
Yea, I get that in his case he probably didn't have a net cost 0. I was just trying to illustrate the peril of market timing in a taxable account. Heck I'm afraid to do it even within my IRA... Most of my shares were purchased in 2007. After 15 years of QE, I felt like the Fed was going to be on the warpath for quite a while. At my age I did not want to look at six figure paper losses for years on end. I’m also planning to buy real estate in the near future and I didn’t want to be constrained. It was difficult to write the check for the large federal tax bill on my non-retirement account but it also feels good to have that out of the way and to be sitting on a large chunk of money that I plan to use on Apple shares when things settle down. Totally not what most financial advisers would advise. No need to be afraid of trading in a retirement account as that money won’t be taxed until you take it out after you reach retirement age.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Sept 21, 2022 8:47:56 GMT -8
Yea, I get that in his case he probably didn't have a net cost 0. I was just trying to illustrate the peril of market timing in a taxable account. Heck I'm afraid to do it even within my IRA... Most of my shares were purchased in 2007. After 15 years of QE, I felt like the Fed was going to be on the warpath for quite a while. At my age I did not want to look at six figure paper losses for years on end. I’m also planning to buy real estate in the near future and I didn’t want to be constrained. It was difficult to write the check for the large federal tax bill on my non-retirement account but it also feels good to have that out of the way and to be sitting on a large chunk of money that I plan to use on Apple shares when things settle down. Totally not what most financial advisers would advise. No need to be afraid of trading in a retirement account as that money won’t be taxed until you take it out after you reach retirement age. Yes of course money won't be taxed until withdrawal from an IRA. My concern stems from timing the market regardless of trading in an IRA or a regular individual account.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on Sept 21, 2022 9:14:26 GMT -8
Contrats on timing selling all your Apple @ $180. I'm not tracking the reentry logic of waiting until after the war and Fed tightening. IE if 1K shares are sold @ $180 and capital gains tax is 20%, to break even when Apple's stock price returns to $180 1K shares would have to be purchased @ $144. If we care about cost basis and only figuring it out for our own life, then selling at say 180 and buying back at say 160 is still a good thing. And if you beat those numbers, then even better. One additional thing that needs to be taken into account, now that Apple has a permanent dividend, is that effect. Sell 1000 shares at 180, pay tax, buy back 900 shares at 160 ... also means that over the long-term you receive the dividend stream on 900 shares instead of on 1000 shares.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Sept 21, 2022 10:23:01 GMT -8
|
|