Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Sept 22, 2022 2:00:06 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Sept 22, 2022 7:08:25 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 22, 2022 9:07:13 GMT -8
Hard to know where things will go in the short term, or even early mid-term. But it seems like this is a good time to write a few puts, on AAPL or other things, if so inclined.
I wrote a few Sept '23 150 puts, though further out is an option too. I wanted to chunk together some short term gains, to offset margin costs in a year that I will itemize. This year would be best, but it looks like '23 or '24 might work too. Tax issues shouldn't run the show, but sometimes they contribute.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 22, 2022 10:05:16 GMT -8
"Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, pulled back by 8.4 percentage points to 17.7%. As noted above, this is among the 20 lowest readings in the survey’s history, which dates back to 1987. Optimism was last at a similar level in May.
The sun is still below the horizon, the Fed is playing from the greenspan multimillionaire playbook. Greenspan made a fortune talking to wall street about inflation. All Biden has to say is high energy prices are causing inflation and we will get them down, end all gas taxes, federal and state, and start investing in energy across the board, jobs, jobs, jobs. If you look at the late 70's something. Arabs raised the price of gas and we had inflation. It is not that complicated.
FB is not tracking users, they are monitoring them. See the difference?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Sept 22, 2022 12:07:39 GMT -8
Well, we almost closed in the green. had it not been for those really large spikes down, with volume.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 22, 2022 19:19:48 GMT -8
"Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, pulled back by 8.4 percentage points to 17.7%. As noted above, this is among the 20 lowest readings in the survey’s history, which dates back to 1987. Optimism was last at a similar level in May. The sun is still below the horizon, the Fed is playing from the greenspan multimillionaire playbook. Greenspan made a fortune talking to wall street about inflation. All Biden has to say is high energy prices are causing inflation and we will get them down, end all gas taxes, federal and state, and start investing in energy across the board, jobs, jobs, jobs. If you look at the late 70's something. Arabs raised the price of gas and we had inflation. It is not that complicated. FB is not tracking users, they are monitoring them. See the difference? I'm sorry Duckpins. I can normally piece together what you are trying to say, but I didn't quite get it this time. Is there first part a quote from somewhere? I didn't see an end quote, or a citation. Each time is different, but oil is at least a part of it, both for personal transportation, but overall transportation, and energy creation. On inflation, after working on electrical for a bit today and then pinging a friend to double check, I was tempted to tell him he should up his rate since he is staying busy. But that's part of the whole issue, that is happening now but also happened 10+ years ago. At that time I ended up getting 8 quotes to replace our boiler, starting with 3 and then I kept on getting people suggesting I call someone. Anyways, most were in a range, maybe 2.5k to 5k. I think one came in at 10k. But one came in at 20k! Like the higher end, he was suggesting a higher end boiler, a condensing one with higher efficiency. But this was all just for the boiler plus connecting 4 lines to it. Nothing crazy or time intensive. I think this guy, who talked about the big 10 zone system he was working on in Truckee, was just busy. But for the right price, he'd make it happen, on a Sunday or something. There's all different markets now, across the board. But, I think part of it, aside from the oil/energy part of it, really comes down to "I have some funds, and I want to do or buy such and such. What does it take to make it happen?" Sure, that's not for everyone, in every circumstance. But how many people does it take to move the needle? 1 in 100? 1 in 50? 1 in 20? Inflation will come around at some point, and eventually the economy and the market. I tend to think it is already happening and we have some trailing indicators, but maybe that is being hopeful. Time will tell, as time catches up. Good luck out there! We're finishing up one project, and hearing there is still a backlog. But we'll probably wait a moment until starting anything else. It takes a while to exit one cycle, with some new cars still in short supply, and a friend just buying a place that needs some work. Things will turn. But will it take a month, 3, 6 or a full 12? I wish things turned quickly, but it might be closer to that 6 month timeframe.
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Post by duckpins on Sept 23, 2022 10:59:50 GMT -8
" I'm sorry Duckpins. I can normally piece together what you are trying to say, but I didn't quite get it this time."
I think you got it. The covid stay at home economy caused lots of people to work on their homes, one heating company told me there was as 3 month wait for an estimate. This means no one is starting new businesses to compete for the jobs. A 3 month wait for an estimate is absurd.
My massage therapists son makes a healthy 6 figures scheduling for a roof company in Austin. Before those were basically minimum wage or close to it jobs. Yet other people claim they can't find work. World has gone insane.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Sept 23, 2022 11:59:18 GMT -8
" My massage therapists son makes a healthy 6 figures scheduling for a roof company in Austin. Before those were basically minimum wage or close to it jobs. Yet other people claim they can't find work. World has gone insane.And unstable. A vacuum has been created and we are left watching as it is trying to be filled. “Winter is coming.”
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