chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 8, 2022 6:02:11 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 8, 2022 9:40:27 GMT -8
Well, at least the week was green. Crazy that the week still ended up green! It sure didn't feel like it. I'm reading "The Money Game". It looks like a good read, especially from a realist point of view. There's been a couple remarks about the troubles in following and predicting movement for a pure numbers guy or a psychologist. But this puts it in a nutshell: "You can have no preconceived ideas. There are fundamentals in the marketplace, but the unexplored area is the emotional area. All the charts and breadth indicators and technical palaver are the statistician's attempts to describe an emotional state." -The Money Game by "Adam Smith", p27 The market is in a funk right now, as it should be given the worries out there, and it's hard to see a specific end. Also from the book, p24, "In good times it's not hard to make money, but in times of unreality the market is saying , 'You don't understand me any more; don't trust me until you understand me'" I don't normally write in books, partly because I normally just get them from the library. But I had seen references to this one several times over the years, and the library didn't have it but it sat in my wish list for a couple years. I finally bought it. And now I'm highlighting in it, since like "Manias, Panics, and Madness of Crowds" it seems like one I am going to come back to every few years, worth a reread. The market will come around this time too. But without a huge catalyst it seems likely we'll see a mild recovery from the absolute lows, but then a long slow recovery to higher numbers until there is really a change in the underlying issues.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 8, 2022 18:58:29 GMT -8
Nice quotes. That book sounds good.
The catalyst lower or higher will be Fed actions and tea-leaf-reading on what those actions will be.
This Thursday’s CPI inflation report will be a big event — could go either way, but the data will definitely move the market. If inflation finally comes down, it could lead to a rally. On the other hand, surprisingly high inflation last month is what knocked the market into selloff.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 9, 2022 7:44:47 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 9, 2022 12:21:24 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 9, 2022 12:37:13 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 9, 2022 18:43:53 GMT -8
The catalyst lower or higher will be Fed actions and tea-leaf-reading on what those actions will be. If Russia suddenly left Ukraine, and said that they were stepping down from the conflict, that would also be huge. As would if Oil dropped, especially below $50. There might be a few others, but really most of the worry these days is those 3, even if they are interconnected. The Fed might ease up if Inflation dropped due to Oil dropping below $50.
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Post by silkstone on Oct 10, 2022 4:31:47 GMT -8
The catalyst lower or higher will be Fed actions and tea-leaf-reading on what those actions will be. If Russia suddenly left Ukraine, and said that they were stepping down from the conflict, that would also be huge. As would if Oil dropped, especially below $50. There might be a few others, but really most of the worry these days is those 3, even if they are interconnected. The Fed might ease up if Inflation dropped due to Oil dropping below $50. The fed will not stop until inflation is at or near 2%, we are not even close.
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