Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Nov 2, 2022 1:49:16 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Nov 2, 2022 2:07:14 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Nov 2, 2022 10:57:27 GMT -8
The ever-trustworthy BusinessInsider published an article picked up by AppleInsider (no link because of course):
"A report claiming to be based on multiple sources within Apple, says that the company is drastically cutting its budget for hiring staff, despite Tim Cook's denial.
Now, however, Business Insider claims to have information of "high-level" conversations within Apple, which show a conscious hiring freeze. Reportedly, existing staff have been told that there will be no further recruitment for at least many months, perhaps until the end of Apple's fiscal year in September 2023.
Apple's Jobs page still features very many positions, but according to one of Business Insider's reported three sources, Apple has designated "no budget" for recruitment."
FWIW (not much)
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 2, 2022 11:07:02 GMT -8
Back to where it was the day before earnings.
Fed press conf was hawkish. Powell will continue whacking the economy and the market until inflation abates. Back to watching monthly inflation tea leaves - that’s all that matters for the next few months.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 2, 2022 11:30:28 GMT -8
Greenspan wrote the book on how to monetize inflation for himself. Powell read it. Energy, rent and greed are causing inflation. The solution is more energy, stop the gasoline exports until we can make more refineries, build more cheap apartments and to stop consolidation in the grocery store business. Sure enough stores are raising the prices to increase profit not because the cost increased. That is what happens when there is no competition.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2022 12:11:14 GMT -8
Anyone have a clue what caused the recent sudden jump in AAPL? Figure you meant to put this question in today's thread. The Fed raised rates, but gave a glimpse at rate increases decelerating. Sometimes that's all people need. I happened to need to sell a little SPY today in a different account, and the stars lined up such that my sell was much closer to the top than the bottom. Small amounts, but it still is nice. Looks like since then, people decided there wasn't enough hope to prop things up. Who knows what tomorrow will bring. At some point it mostly comes down to mass psychology, and even that is tough to guess at, especially when the group is on edge.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Nov 2, 2022 13:01:09 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Nov 2, 2022 13:51:54 GMT -8
All 36 stocks I follow with the most free cash were down today. Less than 10 of the Nasdaq 100 were +. heard a talking head say lots of $ waiting for China to announce that the Covid policy has changed. Money destined for Chinese tech. CQQQ.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 2, 2022 13:59:53 GMT -8
Another problems with fed models is the job data contains job openings that are unrealistic. Positions for low paid staph can't be filled in the SF Bay because you can't afford 3000 a month for a 1 BR on a receptionists salary. And you can't commute from where you are spending 20+ a day on gas. More of the tech workers need to move to Mexico so people who msut needs to live in the area can. Tech workers could buy mansions in PA with their cash and cash flow. Time to move them out.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 2, 2022 14:08:11 GMT -8
The answer is more legal immigration. Too many low paid jobs, not enough workers. Need to invite more immigrants to build their life here and fill those jobs.
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Post by hledgard on Nov 2, 2022 15:01:57 GMT -8
Maybe in time, perhaps the "low paid jobs" will not be so low paid, perhaps they deserve more.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 2, 2022 16:13:43 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2022 19:23:25 GMT -8
Probably more of a worry for the suppliers supplying foxconn with the various parts. Foxconn has the size and build to be it's own bubble, existing and continuing during lockdown. But suppliers to them might be even smaller, not have an onsite living campus, and thus once their employees go home and the area goes into lockdown, they can't produce anything. worldometers show high numbers in some places, including Taiwan, which fits in with recent visitors to the Taipei airport saying it was an eerie ghost town, with 90% of the shops closed. It's hard to remember that it is still a large issue in many places, while in the US nearly everyone has scaled back their precaution level, after most have been exposed in one way or another. But I'm told that on the 13 hour trip from there to SFO, it was similar to the whole trip in Thailand, that for the most part Asian people were wearing masks, but foreigners weren't. Different places, different things, and different amounts of people already exposed to it, through vaccine or otherwise. It's still an issue in the world-wide level, even if it doesn't seem to be in the US.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 2, 2022 21:49:19 GMT -8
Maybe in time, perhaps the "low paid jobs" will not be so low paid, perhaps they deserve more. Some jobs can't exist if paid meaningfully more. For example if nail stylists get $12/hr, a million people a day will use their services. But if they get $24/hr ("living wage" in most urban places), a hundred thousand people a day will use their services. That means that there are then 90% fewer jobs in that field.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Nov 3, 2022 2:01:58 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Nov 3, 2022 5:15:47 GMT -8
Maybe in time, perhaps the "low paid jobs" will not be so low paid, perhaps they deserve more. Some jobs can't exist if paid meaningfully more. For example if nail stylists get $12/hr, a million people a day will use their services. But if they get $24/hr ("living wage" in most urban places), a hundred thousand people a day will use their services. That means that there are then 90% fewer jobs in that field. Appreciate your post, and have not thought about that point. Note that nail stylists get tips, which can be significant. Not at all sure about the numbers. $12 to $24, maybe half, not 10 to one. Still, your point is excellent.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 4, 2022 4:33:30 GMT -8
Some jobs can't exist if paid meaningfully more. For example if nail stylists get $12/hr, a million people a day will use their services. But if they get $24/hr ("living wage" in most urban places), a hundred thousand people a day will use their services. That means that there are then 90% fewer jobs in that field. Appreciate your post, and have not thought about that point. Note that nail stylists get tips, which can be significant. Not at all sure about the numbers. $12 to $24, maybe half, not 10 to one. Still, your point is excellent. At first I wanted to write "half", but then I realized it can't be a linear relationship for this type of service. It is curved somehow, and I wanted the illustration to show that fact. If it were linear, it would imply that if nails cost $10+5 tip got 1,000,000 customers, then if nails cost $100+50 tip would get 100,000 customers. And that is clearly not possible, prices that high would only garner VERY few customers, from the tiny segment of society that "doesn't need to ask" about prices. There is a class of luxury goods where demand increases as price increases. It's relatively rare. Recent examples may include certain brands/models of sneakers.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2022 13:31:20 GMT -8
There is a class of luxury goods where demand increases as price increases. It's relatively rare. Recent examples may include certain brands/models of sneakers. The question is if that is the type of thing showing a bubble? Housing in 2007. Crypto at the peak. Tulip bulbs. And all the other bubbles. In general it changes from an investment to a lottery ticket, and many of the books on bubbles talk of people getting out early, and then getting sucked back in. When it looks like a sure thing and easy money, at times it is hard to resist. Speaking of lotto tickets, I've only bought them a couple times when things are big, maybe twice in the past 15 years. That's probably two times too many, at least for some people. But $1.6B is kinda tempting. I'll skip it for now, but maybe invest a little into schools if it doesn't hit this time. Crazy week.
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