Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Nov 4, 2022 1:11:56 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 4, 2022 1:23:00 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Nov 4, 2022 6:10:09 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 4, 2022 7:24:17 GMT -8
Something’s going on with AAPL. Unusual for AAPL to be down 1.5% on a day that SPY and QQQ are up over 1%, when there’s no apple news.
Might be the China COVID lockdowns, might just be a delayed reaction to a lackluster earnings report. The day after ER saw a big pop but then the selling has been consistent since.
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Post by hledgard on Nov 4, 2022 7:45:06 GMT -8
Something’s going on with AAPL. Unusual for AAPL to be down 1.5% on a day that SPY and QQQ are up over 1%, when there’s no apple news. Might be the China COVID lockdowns, might just be a delayed reaction to a lackluster earnings report. The day after ER saw a big pop but then the selling has been consistent since. I think the re-election of Xi Jinping is casting a shadow over AAPL. The threat to Taiwan is more real than before. And this is a big issue for Apple.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 4, 2022 8:39:56 GMT -8
We didn’t waste a lot of time in the $140’s and went directly into the $130’s. It’s starting to look like the rats are jumping the ship.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 4, 2022 8:49:34 GMT -8
This guy sees Apple falling another 15% to 20%It doesn’t matter if this prediction is correct or not, there is too much fear out there for people to ignore such warnings. I think that we are at the point that all someone has to do is whisper “smoke” in the theater and everyone starts running to the exits. The problem is that the smoke is really there.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 4, 2022 9:33:18 GMT -8
New Apple TV Now Available at Apple Stores With These 10 ChangesSo, Apple is introducing a new AppleTV at the same price, but your losing the Ethernet connection and you won’t get a usb c cable to charge the remote. But they are dropping the TV part off of the name. Wow, what a deal. I happen to be one of those people that use the Ethernet connection because of the better data speed and its dependability. There’s going to be a lot of unhappy customers that open the box and find out what’s missing. I know that I would. Edit: I just ordered one, the one with the Ethernet connection. I did my part.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 4, 2022 9:44:54 GMT -8
Been getting a lot of promotional emails from online banks advertising their near 4% savings interest rates. With the Fed intentionally tanking stock markets and continually raising interest rates, 4% risk free guaranteed seems pretty appealing compared to -26% loss YTD...
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 4, 2022 10:44:41 GMT -8
This guy sees Apple falling another 15% to 20%It doesn’t matter if this prediction is correct or not, there is too much fear out there for people to ignore such warnings. I think that we are at the point that all someone has to do is whisper “smoke” in the theater and everyone starts running to the exits. The problem is that the smoke is really there. Thanks for posting this, Dave. I think there's a lot to like in the responses from the Apple 3.0 members. One response that particularly resonated with me was the comment from Neal Guttenberg. ==== Apple could fall another 15-20%. But if Apple is still performing well as a company, does that really matter? Especially if, in the long term, the stock goes back to reflect the value that is in the company. Also, the company just came off a tremendous run with a good part of it due to the pandemic. Apple, when faced with tough compares, has performed well. To me, that speaks to the staying power of their products. They continuously report a good part of their revenues are from people switching to their products, their subscription numbers continue to grow and they still make products that people aspire to own. No matter what the environment in the market, this is a stock that I want to own.
Now if Apple comes out with an AR/VR product that hits the mark for the product category and has great sales numbers that can move the numbers a bit, the present valuation will be considered low. For me, that means no matter what happens in the short term, if it is 5% or the 15-20% that they talked about in the CNBC clip, I am staying invested here.==== My wife and I started investing *only* in AAPL in 2000...and I retired in May of 2008. If the AAPL share price were to fall another 15-20%, it *could* bottom out around $110/share. And if it did, our AAPL portfolio would still be 17.8 times the value of our AAPL portfolio when I retired in 2008, a little over 14 years ago. Which means AAPL has been such an incredible investment over the last 14+ years, that the *average* value gained by our AAPL portfolio every year has been equal to almost 1.3 times the *total* value of our Apple shares when I retired. To me, that's remarkable. In spite of many of the talking heads now suggesting AAPL is dead money from here on, I don't share that opinion...and like Neal Guttenberg, my wife and I are invested in AAPL for the long term, and we're *staying* invested in AAPL. GLTA
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 4, 2022 11:04:03 GMT -8
Been getting a lot of promotional emails from online banks advertising their near 4% savings interest rates. With the Fed intentionally tanking stock markets and continually raising interest rates, 4% risk free guaranteed seems pretty appealing compared to -26% loss YTD... I’ve been thinking the same thing about that. But I think that my Fidelity account refers to it as dividends. Making a little beats losing a lot.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 4, 2022 12:07:02 GMT -8
Nice end of day bounce. Still, it looks like AAPL had its worst week since the Covid crash (March 20, 2020)
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2022 13:44:57 GMT -8
53.13% success rate? How many flips of a coin does it take before that is statistically significant compared to a 50% probability? I like people and analysts that think AAPL will do ok. But that track record just bugs me. Like Lucky, I've done well with AAPL. It's almost 25 years since I bought my first shares, and over that timeframe AAPL has something on the order of 25-30% annualized returns, beating out Buffet's longtime returns. It's been a good run. It isn't always magical in the shorter timeframes. And I don't expect it to last forever....even the Sun with cease at some point. But for now things still look good, even if a low tide sinks all ships.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2022 13:51:38 GMT -8
I happen to be one of those people that use the Ethernet connection because of the better data speed and its dependability. I do like the dependability. But are you sure it is faster than your wifi? In most cases the internet speed is the limiting factor, as most wifi is faster. But we don't yet have the option for fiber or anything like that, and even my cable internet is slow compared to most people.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2022 13:58:53 GMT -8
I don't think there should be huge worries about this. Apple has done this at least twice in the last 21 years. This happened in the end of 2001 or start of 2002. And then I read about it in 2007/2008 or so. The key points both times were that Apple was focused on innovation through the downturns, they wanted to avoid layoffs, but they were going to be light on hiring in most (but not all) areas.
There could have been more times too, and I haven't tried to cross-correlate between revenue, earnings, or stock price. But this isn't a completely new thing, and more of a "being prudent" thing, while also helping reassure current employees that things should stay stable, while reminding them to continue focusing on the goals, and innovating.
It's good to plan ahead, and have a cash pile to get you through the rough points.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 5, 2022 2:38:50 GMT -8
I happen to be one of those people that use the Ethernet connection because of the better data speed and its dependability. I do like the dependability. But are you sure it is faster than your wifi? In most cases the internet speed is the limiting factor, as most wifi is faster. But we don't yet have the option for fiber or anything like that, and even my cable internet is slow compared to most people. I have the Speedtest app on all of my devices for troubleshooting. I’m fortunate enough to have AT&T’s 1 gig. fiber optic internet plan, which is great but their WiFi router can be a little flaky at times. When I test the AppleTV’s speed it pegs just a little under 1 gig up and down because of its wired connection, but on this iPad it’s about half that speed with the router location directly above this room. I learned many years ago the advantages of wired connection’s, especially when you have slower internet speeds coming into the house, so one of the first things that I’ll do when moving into a new home is run Ethernet where I can. That’s why I think this push to go totally wireless by Apple is disappointing and insane. And don’t get me started on the danger’s of EMF’s.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 8, 2022 11:53:40 GMT -8
I do like the dependability. But are you sure it is faster than your wifi? In most cases the internet speed is the limiting factor, as most wifi is faster. But we don't yet have the option for fiber or anything like that, and even my cable internet is slow compared to most people. I have the Speedtest app on all of my devices for troubleshooting. I’m fortunate enough to have AT&T’s 1 gig. fiber optic internet plan, which is great but their WiFi router can be a little flaky at times. When I test the AppleTV’s speed it pegs just a little under 1 gig up and down because of its wired connection, but on this iPad it’s about half that speed with the router location directly above this room. I learned many years ago the advantages of wired connection’s, especially when you have slower internet speeds coming into the house, so one of the first things that I’ll do when moving into a new home is run Ethernet where I can. That’s why I think this push to go totally wireless by Apple is disappointing and insane. And don’t get me started on the danger’s of EMF’s. Yea, fiber is a whole different level. Congrats! OTOH, are there any usability differences? What does it take to treat full 4k or even 8k resolution, at full refresh rates? That shouldn't take fiber speeds. For us, one of our wifi bands (2.4ghz one) is affected by our microwave, even with them being in other rooms, and even without it being in the straight path. That really shows there's some EMF disruption going on. I keep meaning to run ethernet, but just haven't needed to. The wireless router did ok even when next to and below grade of a cement porch, and then rock work and a wood stove. Now that we centralized it more after my son complained about it for gaming, it does great. We previously had the movie streaming computer connected by ethernet, but it's now back to wireless since the router was moved, and it has not had any problems.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 8, 2022 12:48:53 GMT -8
Okay, several years ago I bought a house let's say " in the country" with the only connection to the internet was DSL. Needless to say that it wasn't even adequate for much more then sending a email. Then I discovered MoFi Network Router and found a less expensive cell data plan that would allow us to get enough MB's to watch a movie. I think the minimum to keep the device from buffering is about 300 MB. These routers are used in motorhomes and have been very well proven. But I found that I still needed a Ethernet connection because of the data loss from the wifi. And then, after a couple of years of this arrangement, fiber optic came to our area with the big buildout to provide internet to the country. The difference was like the proverbal night and day. And so, when I went shopping for a new house, high speed internet was a requirement. Ethernet cables are cheep and can sometimes be easy to run on ones house. I went with CAT 7 as future proof. If there any repeaters I connected them with ethernet back to the base. I'm not sure if AppleTV can provide 8K. My TV is 4K and has a great picture. The signal is run through a receiver for the sound. So anyway, I think that it's foolish for Apple to offer a media box without a ethernet port.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 8, 2022 17:01:30 GMT -8
They're working on getting fiber here, running a few conduit lines over the mountain over the last 2 years. Hopefully it will be soon.
I'm not a speed junkie anymore, so it doesn't matter too much. Most of my son's games don't have speed issues, except when running updates. Like running BitTorrent, it can saturate the connection.
OTOH, a friend makes trailers for video games, and often needs to move very large files. He just went with the SpaceX solution for his travel van, and found that it was faster than his home connection here, so ordered one for the house too.
We're not at dial-up or DSL speeds, but is isn't too much better. But when it can stream a movie via Disney+, with another kid gaming, and another watching youtube, that seems pretty good for our needs at the moment. And that is all by wifi. Like moving to 5G, if not pushing the limits of the current technology, the move forward doesn't seem like a big step. At the same time, just because it's ok for us doesn't mean that it is ok for everyone. Even on decent sized lots, our wifi sometimes takes a hit when the big extended family shows up at the house behind us.
Fun times. Glad you have something that works. And I hope we can get fiber soon too.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Nov 9, 2022 12:32:13 GMT -8
I'm not a speed junkie anymore, so it doesn't matter too much. Most of my son's games don't have speed issues, except when running updates. Like running BitTorrent, it can saturate the connection. Most modern routers have QoS settings that you can use to limit the percentage of bandwidth to certain things. So if you don't want bittorrent to eat up all the bandwidth, you could perhaps limit it to 50% of total bandwidth (or maybe even 80% depending on how much other stuff is going on on your network). My WiFi network often has 30+ devices connected. Hard to believe, but with thermostats, washer and dryer, and 10+ phones, a bunch of tablets, PCs, macs, watches, games, assorted TV devices, Apple TV, Roku, Chromecasts, Fire sticks, speakers, alexas, google homes, etc. And the car, of course. I have no QoS setup right now, except maybe some default ones that the Google Home WiFi device does.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 9, 2022 13:32:01 GMT -8
I'm not a speed junkie anymore, so it doesn't matter too much. Most of my son's games don't have speed issues, except when running updates. Like running BitTorrent, it can saturate the connection. Most modern routers have QoS settings that you can use to limit the percentage of bandwidth to certain things. So if you don't want bittorrent to eat up all the bandwidth, you could perhaps limit it to 50% of total bandwidth (or maybe even 80% depending on how much other stuff is going on on your network). My WiFi network often has 30+ devices connected. Hard to believe, but with thermostats, washer and dryer, and 10+ phones, a bunch of tablets, PCs, macs, watches, games, assorted TV devices, Apple TV, Roku, Chromecasts, Fire sticks, speakers, alexas, google homes, etc. And the car, of course. I have no QoS setup right now, except maybe some default ones that the Google Home WiFi device does. It hasn't been enough of a problem so far to warrant setting changes. Our past Netgear one wasn't very intuitive, and it would also sometimes overheat and puke. I haven't looked into it on our new one. I'm used to devices on the network acting somewhat civil, but some of those games do just gobble anything they can, at least by default. I was worried about the thermostat and cameras having the possibility of going wild, and so was putting them on a different network and potentially the old router. But they seem to be ok. At the same time, I try to keep from having too many IoT devices, not seeing a reason to have the washer/dryer/dishwasher/fridge on the network. There's enough other things to go wrong, without having to worry about networking. Today's mission, should I accept it, appears to be the drum rollers on the dryer going out. Nothing too crazy. But still, one more thing. OTOH, the neighbor thinks she has a water leak, so that will be a fun challenge to hunt down for her. (EDIT: Yep, a full teardown of the drier had one of the 4 drum rollers (basically a rollerblade wheel) stuck and separated. I cleaned and sanded the post, and swapped it for a less essential one. It's still not perfect, but it runs, so that gives me time to order a new one and replace when I feel like it. And knowing how the whole thing works and is put together is kinda fun for me. Likewise, it seems the neighbor's problem is a shutoff valve with a waste/drain port, that wasn't fully on or off and so was leaking (it was recently used when her water heater went out...remember to replace that sacrificial anode). Seems like we set it to fully open from inside the house today, and we don't hear a leak anymore. But it will take crawling under the house again, sometime when it doesn't bother her guests, to verify while also getting a good picture in case it needs replacement in the future. Life's little mysteries and challenges)
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