Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2022 2:37:27 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2022 3:04:46 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Nov 18, 2022 7:16:09 GMT -8
Agree with the comments the buying the dip opportunity is long gone
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ono
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posted
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Post by ono on Nov 18, 2022 7:18:01 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 18, 2022 9:04:08 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 18, 2022 9:17:23 GMT -8
Agree with the comments the buying the dip opportunity is long gone I guess it just depends on how low on the dip you want to buy, and the risks/rewards of it. Roughly speaking, AAPL is up 15% from the bottom. But comparing to the ATH, AAPL has to go up 20% from here to recapture that. I'm at my limit for risk, but if I wasn't I wouldn't have a problem buying here. Though thinking in terms of AAPL and the broader market, I'd want to think about timeframes on realistically how long a recovery to that ATH would take, and what challenges could be seen before then. Instead, it looks like I bought at a variety of prices on the way down, averaging around $160. I wrote some puts closer to the low, so those are green.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 18, 2022 9:19:29 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 18, 2022 9:42:09 GMT -8
This comment seemed right: There are always going to be some lost sales. Someone breaks an iPhone and needs a new one, NOW. They buy what they can get. There might be plenty of people that are willing to hold out and wait to get what they prefer, but there are also some who just have to take what is available. And if that is a lower cost model, with lower profit per unit, then Apple gets a little less. What we don't know is the exact percentages of consumers that do this, nor the exact profit difference. From a profit perspective, I'd rather Apple had constraints on the lower end, and some buyers made the leap higher that they wouldn't otherwise.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 18, 2022 9:52:16 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Nov 18, 2022 10:00:13 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 18, 2022 12:42:32 GMT -8
And one more article, on PED or on the stock app, that said they hit their limit for space while new people would be in a 3 day quarantine. I think that mentioned 100k, speaking of 200k wanted in total. All similar articles and timing, just pushing different parts of the story, and either not pushing other parts or not having the full story. OTOH, all seem to have that there is a big push to get employees back or get new employees, and that overall it is going well. It is a different concept, much different that many of today's work environments here. The closest thing might be thinking of students from all over going to a college (and staying at dorms, eating there, etc), or possibly of people coming from a wide area to help and work after a big natural disaster like a hurricane. Looks like they are getting employees, so that is good.
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 18, 2022 14:05:44 GMT -8
Agree with the comments the buying the dip opportunity is long gone I guess it just depends on how low on the dip you want to buy, and the risks/rewards of it. Roughly speaking, AAPL is up 15% from the bottom. But comparing to the ATH, AAPL has to go up 20% from here to recapture that. I'm at my limit for risk, but if I wasn't I wouldn't have a problem buying here. Though thinking in terms of AAPL and the broader market, I'd want to think about timeframes on realistically how long a recovery to that ATH would take, and what challenges could be seen before then. Instead, it looks like I bought at a variety of prices on the way down, averaging around $160. I wrote some puts closer to the low, so those are green. For those adventurous souls who buy and sell AAPL at different times for different reasons, I can understand why they might be reluctant to buy when the near and distant future of the economy is so muddled. But for long-term investors, like many of the members on AFB, the best time to buy AAPL is when one has the money to buy AAPL, IMHO. Let me explain. Years ago I decided to sell shares of AAPL from one of my IRA's during a downturn in AAPL share price...and then, *cleverly*, buy more AAPL shares when the stock had bottomed and was showing signs of increasing in share price(Yes, the very foolish concept, known to most, as "Timing the market"). Things went as planned and I was able to buy many more shares that way than I had sold when the share price was higher...it worked perfectly...twice. The third time the share price suddenly turned and jumped over the price at which I had sold. So, that was my last attempt to modify my original decision in 2000 to just buy and hold AAPL. Since Apple restarted their dividend program in August of 2012, my wife and I have auto-reinvested 100% of the AAPL dividends from our IRA's. So, four times a year, on the day the dividends were paid, with no regard of the AAPL share price at the time...new shares were added to our IRA's. Those new shares were purchased most recently for $170.31/share on 08/11/22 and for $147.64/share on 11/10/22...and yet the average cost basis of AAPL shares purchased over the last 10 years is $42.80/share. Would the average cost basis of our new AAPL shares have been even lower if I had attempted to time the market when reinvesting dividends, as I did successfully on those first two occasions with my IRA shares? Perhaps some folks could have successfully done that...but, based on my *third* attempt to time the market, I'm convinced that my wife and I are better off just doing auto-reinvesting of dividends. YMMV So, bottom line, I'm convinced that, for the long-term investor, buy AAPL when you have the money and the share price is not making big daily swings. The share price may drop lower than your purchase price in the short term...but, in the long term, you'll not regret the purchase.
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