chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Dec 10, 2022 7:00:50 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 10, 2022 13:16:40 GMT -8
With the economy in the cellar for the majority of 2022, it's certainly been a more difficult year to be an AAPL long. So many calls from so-called "experts" to "sell AAPL"..."its good years are behind it", etc. There's been a particular author on Seeking Alpha who *constantly* predicates "AAPL is dead money for at least 4 years". Who knows? But I take solace from the fact that, for long term holders of AAPL...we've been here previously.
I've maintained a spreadsheet to track our AAPL portfolio since I retired on 05/19/08...and as you can see below, there have been exactly 3 negative years over that 14 year period where AAPL has been lower than the previous retirement anniversary date. The most negative year was between 05/19/08 and 05/19/09 when AAPL was down -31%. That was quite a painful pullback when the economy was trying to get back on track. However, there were 5 years when AAPL gained *twice*, or almost twice, that percentage figure: 57%, 51%, 63%, 66%, 59%. And one memorable year when AAPL gained *three* times that percentage figure: 95%, between 05/19/09 and 05/19/10. Of course, much of that was recovering from the -31% drop over the previous year.
Date Share Price Percent Change 05/19/22__$137.35__10% 05/19/21__$124.69__59% 05/19/20___$78.29__66% 05/19/19___$47.25___2% 05/19/18___$46.58__22% 05/19/17___$38.27__63% 05/19/16___$23.55__-27% 05/19/15___$32.55__51% 05/19/14___$21.34__38% 05/19/13___$15.47__-15% 05/19/12___$18.94__57% 05/19/11___$12.16__37% 05/19/10____$8.87__95% 05/19/09____$4.55__-31% 05/19/08____$6.56
As of market close on 12/09/22, AAPL is down 21.9% since it's ATH close of $182.01 on 01/03/22. No one really knows what will happen to AAPL/Apple in the near future...but, I very much subscribe to the comment I recently saw on Seeking Alpha: "Good investors don't care about the last or next 12-18 months. They care about the next 10 years."
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 10, 2022 16:08:09 GMT -8
Current delivery date for iPhone pro models is Jan 4, 2023!
If that persists, the next 21 days of pro purchases will be counted in next quarter (FY23Q2) instead of in this quarter (FY23Q1).
That's bad news for FY24Q2. Why? Because the "comp" from FY23Q2 to FY24Q2 will be a tough one. 🤣
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Dec 10, 2022 18:37:22 GMT -8
Current delivery date for iPhone pro models is Jan 4, 2023! If that persists, the next 21 days of pro purchases will be counted in next quarter (FY23Q2) instead of in this quarter (FY23Q1). That's bad news for FY24Q2. Why? Because the "comp" from FY23Q2 to FY24Q2 will be a tough one. 🤣 Maybe it’s because I am not a trader, but I don’t spend much time worrying about such comps. I am more concerned about how the China problems may affect supply for the holiday sales. No criticism meant.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 11, 2022 7:05:07 GMT -8
Current delivery date for iPhone pro models is Jan 4, 2023! If that persists, the next 21 days of pro purchases will be counted in next quarter (FY23Q2) instead of in this quarter (FY23Q1). That's bad news for FY24Q2. Why? Because the "comp" from FY23Q2 to FY24Q2 will be a tough one. 🤣 Maybe it’s because I am not a trader, but I don’t spend much time worrying about such comps. I am more concerned about how the China problems may affect supply for the holiday sales. No criticism meant. I don't worry about them AT ALL. I posted that line as a joke ... hence the ROFL emoji! Most of those things exist to give the 24/7 business media something to talk about. I'd be happy if companies reported once a year.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Dec 11, 2022 7:28:30 GMT -8
Maybe it’s because I am not a trader, but I don’t spend much time worrying about such comps. I am more concerned about how the China problems may affect supply for the holiday sales. No criticism meant. I don't worry about them AT ALL. I posted that line as a joke ... hence the ROFL emoji! Most of those things exist to give the 24/7 business media something to talk about. I'd be happy if companies reported once a year. Apologies, Mark. You are one of the posters whose opinions I most value. I’ll try to lighten up a bit in the future.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Dec 11, 2022 8:39:02 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 11, 2022 15:48:52 GMT -8
This is such BS ... because Google also charges a fee for in-app purchases. So there will be an upcharge in iOS, and there will be an upcharge in Android, and there will be no upcharge in browsers. Big deal! You have to learn a little software-developer-speak ... sometimes "optimized" means "we found a way to make it work correctly". 😅
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Post by hledgard on Dec 11, 2022 18:48:50 GMT -8
As a software person, Mark's comment above is spot on !
Computer programming for any real app is very, very complex, requires knowledge that takes years to learn, and uses computer languages that are more like hieroglyphics than natural language.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Dec 11, 2022 19:24:47 GMT -8
Forgive me, I retired from IBM 10 years ago, so my jargon is a bit rusty .
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 17, 2022 5:09:44 GMT -8
Optimized can mean anything from "We found a more efficent way to use multiple cores" to "We reduced the size of the source code by deleting all the comments".
Sadly I have seen both, not joking
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 17, 2022 17:54:32 GMT -8
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