Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jan 4, 2023 2:39:15 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jan 4, 2023 3:08:21 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jan 4, 2023 6:25:08 GMT -8
This past year was not a good year for AAPL nor for any other stocks that come to mind. While not ignoring how tough this past year was for AAPL shareholders, I think it's important to consider how AAPL did in 2022 compared to a few of the other stocks to which AAPL is sometimes compared. As can be seen from this chart, even though AAPL dropped a great deal this past year, other stocks did far worse...a couple stocks dropped over twice as much as AAPL. While other AAPL shareholders may not be comforted by this next chart, when I view AAPL's 2022 performance compared to its yearly performances over the last 23 years, I see that it was only the 3rd worst year for AAPL since 2001. Also note that 14 of the 23 years on the chart showed tremendous gains of 26% to 184%. Only 2 of those years(2020 & 2021) can be claimed by AAPL/Apple critics to have been positive for Apple because of the pandemic. I remain an optimistic AAPL shareholder because I don't depend on the market to determine when to sell my AAPL stock. Many who participate in the market are *investors*, but many are happy to buy and sell stock based on fear and panic. I'll sell my AAPL stock when/if I lose confidence in Tim Cook, Apple's management or in the products that Apple sells. Meanwhile...Cheers to the AAPL Longs! I look forward to a better year for the stock and the company.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 4, 2023 9:54:04 GMT -8
I have a constant back and forth with one of my relatives about which is the better stock for the future, AAPL or MCD. He's been a longtime holder of MCD and with reinvestment of the chunky MCD dividend, it has done very well for him. Of course, AAPL has done better in most years... Near the end of 2021, based on our conversations, he considered selling some of his MCD to invest in AAPL. I'm certainly glad he didn't!
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2023 10:30:28 GMT -8
I have a constant back and forth with one of my relatives about which is the better stock for the future, AAPL or MCD. He's been a longtime holder of MCD and with reinvestment of the chunky MCD dividend, it has done very well for him. Of course, AAPL has done better in most years... Near the end of 2021, based on our conversations, he considered selling some of his MCD to invest in AAPL. I'm certainly glad he didn't! I am curious to learn how many other ways Apple sucked in 2022. Keep ‘em coming.
|
|
|
Post by macster on Jan 4, 2023 10:44:06 GMT -8
I have a constant back and forth with one of my relatives about which is the better stock for the future, AAPL or MCD. He's been a longtime holder of MCD and with reinvestment of the chunky MCD dividend, it has done very well for him. Of course, AAPL has done better in most years... Near the end of 2021, based on our conversations, he considered selling some of his MCD to invest in AAPL. I'm certainly glad he didn't! Of course we all know what was the better investment if you look long term and don’t sweat these bumps
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 4, 2023 10:48:58 GMT -8
I have a constant back and forth with one of my relatives about which is the better stock for the future, AAPL or MCD. He's been a longtime holder of MCD and with reinvestment of the chunky MCD dividend, it has done very well for him. Of course, AAPL has done better in most years... Near the end of 2021, based on our conversations, he considered selling some of his MCD to invest in AAPL. I'm certainly glad he didn't! I am curious to learn how many other ways Apple sucked in 2022. Keep ‘em coming. It would be one thing if I was just pointing it out in retrospect. But I warned everyone in advance! I pointed out 70 RSI as a great sell point (when the stock was at 175). I posted when it broke support at 160 that a multi-year support was broken and it was likely to drop. I also pointed out that AAPL was overvalued based on its historical PE range and that we could see 120 or below. Every time, people called me negative and told me that if I wasn't sufficiently loyal to AAPL I could just go away. I'm in AAPL because it's been a good investment for me since 2000. But past performance is no guarantee of future success. I don't believe it will always be the best investment in the future always forever. I prefer to add funds to AAPL when it's undervalued (which could be now, or close to now) and lighten up when its overbought.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Jan 4, 2023 12:16:48 GMT -8
I have a constant back and forth with one of my relatives about which is the better stock for the future, AAPL or MCD. He's been a longtime holder of MCD and with reinvestment of the chunky MCD dividend, it has done very well for him. Of course, AAPL has done better in most years... Near the end of 2021, based on our conversations, he considered selling some of his MCD to invest in AAPL. I'm certainly glad he didn't! Well i got .90 an hour making milk shakes at MacD. In those days the norm was Hamburger, fries and a shake. Don't know when coke managed to edge out the shakes? But the fries were fried in beef tallow and were crunchy on the outside and browned, softer inside. Todays fries are an abomination, but the kids don't know any better. Amazing how successful the soy bean industry was in teaching people that soy was healthier than beef tallow. Have know idea what the future of fast food holds. Maybe apple should go there after they make their driverless car?
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2023 12:31:55 GMT -8
I don't know anyone who eats at McDonalds.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2023 13:30:25 GMT -8
I don't know anyone who eats at McDonalds. I caught my cat dumpster diving there. That was the end of that cat.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 4, 2023 13:32:58 GMT -8
The RSI level is only 35, not below 30, but the IDGAF level seems high. At some point all that will sell directly will have sold, though indexes and funds that hold AAPL could still be on a different cycle.
Like Lucky and many others here, I've held for a long time, with my first shares being purchased 25 years ago this week. I prefer the green days/weeks/months/years, but this is part of it. It's annoying that the downside is more fed-created this time, but it's a lot less of a downside than 2001 and 2008 (so far). That whole "popping the bubble before it grows so large that it bursts" thing.
While I trust Apple, this is a reminder that some things are out of their control. The sad part to me is that there have been multiple times this year that would have been good to lighten the load a bit at 170+. OTOH, it's nice to have that dividend money coming in.
Good luck out there. At some point the market will turn, first on ambitions, and later on facts.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2023 13:34:06 GMT -8
I am curious to learn how many other ways Apple sucked in 2022. Keep ‘em coming. It would be one thing if I was just pointing it out in retrospect. But I warned everyone in advance! I pointed out 70 RSI as a great sell point (when the stock was at 175). I posted when it broke support at 160 that a multi-year support was broken and it was likely to drop. I also pointed out that AAPL was overvalued based on its historical PE range and that we could see 120 or below. Every time, people called me negative and told me that if I wasn't sufficiently loyal to AAPL I could just go away. I'm in AAPL because it's been a good investment for me since 2000. But past performance is no guarantee of future success. I don't believe it will always be the best investment in the future always forever. I prefer to add funds to AAPL when it's undervalued (which could be now, or close to now) and lighten up when its overbought. I think anyone taking investment advice from anyone on a message board like this is asking for trouble. This one included. I will make my own decisions. All kinds of people cherry pick their advice. Kind of like picking a one year chart of AAPL to MCD.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jan 4, 2023 13:40:05 GMT -8
I have a constant back and forth with one of my relatives about which is the better stock for the future, AAPL or MCD. He's been a longtime holder of MCD and with reinvestment of the chunky MCD dividend, it has done very well for him. Of course, AAPL has done better in most years... Near the end of 2021, based on our conversations, he considered selling some of his MCD to invest in AAPL. I'm certainly glad he didn't! Well i got .90 an hour making milk shakes at MacD. In those days the norm was Hamburger, fries and a shake. Don't know when coke managed to edge out the shakes? But the fries were fried in beef tallow and were crunchy on the outside and browned, softer inside. Todays fries are an abomination, but the kids don't know any better. Amazing how successful the soy bean industry was in teaching people that soy was healthier than beef tallow. Have know idea what the future of fast food holds. Maybe apple should go there after they make their driverless car? When I was looking at the chart that Macster posted where MCD started to decline, the first thing that came to mind was if 2010 was about the time that McDonalds changed their french fry recipe. They at one time had the best fries in town. Bad management and bad decisions. The next big change to the fast food industry will be robotics. With the cost of labor increasing it only makes sense.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jan 4, 2023 13:42:22 GMT -8
I am curious to learn how many other ways Apple sucked in 2022. Keep ‘em coming. It would be one thing if I was just pointing it out in retrospect. But I warned everyone in advance! I pointed out 70 RSI as a great sell point (when the stock was at 175). I posted when it broke support at 160 that a multi-year support was broken and it was likely to drop. I also pointed out that AAPL was overvalued based on its historical PE range and that we could see 120 or below. Every time, people called me negative and told me that if I wasn't sufficiently loyal to AAPL I could just go away. I'm in AAPL because it's been a good investment for me since 2000. But past performance is no guarantee of future success. I don't believe it will always be the best investment in the future always forever. I prefer to add funds to AAPL when it's undervalued (which could be now, or close to now) and lighten up when its overbought. Thank you archibaldtuttle. Please keep it up.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jan 4, 2023 13:51:25 GMT -8
It would be one thing if I was just pointing it out in retrospect. But I warned everyone in advance! I pointed out 70 RSI as a great sell point (when the stock was at 175). I posted when it broke support at 160 that a multi-year support was broken and it was likely to drop. I also pointed out that AAPL was overvalued based on its historical PE range and that we could see 120 or below. Every time, people called me negative and told me that if I wasn't sufficiently loyal to AAPL I could just go away. I'm in AAPL because it's been a good investment for me since 2000. But past performance is no guarantee of future success. I don't believe it will always be the best investment in the future always forever. I prefer to add funds to AAPL when it's undervalued (which could be now, or close to now) and lighten up when its overbought. I think anyone taking investment advice from anyone on a message board like this is asking for trouble. This one included. I will make my own decisions. All kinds of people cherry pick their advice. Kind of like picking a one year chart of AAPL to MCD. Lstream, I’m confident that if you had been present in that conversation that it would have ended quite differently. But not in a positive way.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on Jan 4, 2023 14:59:42 GMT -8
I don't know anyone who eats at McDonalds. But their housekeeper, gardener, hairdresser, etc do eat there. It would be one thing if I was just pointing it out in retrospect. But I warned everyone in advance! I pointed out 70 RSI as a great sell point (when the stock was at 175). I posted when it broke support at 160 that a multi-year support was broken and it was likely to drop. I also pointed out that AAPL was overvalued based on its historical PE range and that we could see 120 or below. Every time, people called me negative and told me that if I wasn't sufficiently loyal to AAPL I could just go away. I'm in AAPL because it's been a good investment for me since 2000. But past performance is no guarantee of future success. I don't believe it will always be the best investment in the future always forever. I prefer to add funds to AAPL when it's undervalued (which could be now, or close to now) and lighten up when its overbought. Many of us have the big capital gains issue. We essentially can't reasonably sell because we would immediately be hit with millions in capital gains taxes. For some of us, our basis is so small that nearly the entire value consists of capital gains. I think we've discussed this a few times over the years. We also discussed buying protective puts, but that has its own problems: 1. You need to get the timing right. 2. You need to do it repeatedly to ensure that the protection remains in place throughout the period of potential downturn. 3. Those kinds of puts tend to be expensive during normal times, and very expensive during volatile times. Finally, while many appeared to think that you were too pessimistic, I don't recall anyone telling you to "go away"!
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2023 15:46:14 GMT -8
I don't know anyone who eats at McDonalds. But their housekeeper, gardener, hairdresser, etc do eat there. It would be one thing if I was just pointing it out in retrospect. But I warned everyone in advance! I pointed out 70 RSI as a great sell point (when the stock was at 175). I posted when it broke support at 160 that a multi-year support was broken and it was likely to drop. I also pointed out that AAPL was overvalued based on its historical PE range and that we could see 120 or below. Every time, people called me negative and told me that if I wasn't sufficiently loyal to AAPL I could just go away. I'm in AAPL because it's been a good investment for me since 2000. But past performance is no guarantee of future success. I don't believe it will always be the best investment in the future always forever. I prefer to add funds to AAPL when it's undervalued (which could be now, or close to now) and lighten up when its overbought. Many of us have the big capital gains issue. We essentially can't reasonably sell because we would immediately be hit with millions in capital gains taxes. For some of us, our basis is so small that nearly the entire value consists of capital gains. I think we've discussed this a few times over the years. We also discussed buying protective puts, but that has its own problems: 1. You need to get the timing right. 2. You need to do it repeatedly to ensure that the protection remains in place throughout the period of potential downturn. 3. Those kinds of puts tend to be expensive during normal times, and very expensive during volatile times. Finally, while many appeared to think that you were too pessimistic, I don't recall anyone telling you to "go away"! Exactly. Thank you.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2023 15:47:37 GMT -8
I think anyone taking investment advice from anyone on a message board like this is asking for trouble. This one included. I will make my own decisions. All kinds of people cherry pick their advice. Kind of like picking a one year chart of AAPL to MCD. Lstream, I’m confident that if you had been present in that conversation that it would have ended quite differently. But not in a positive way. I don’t know what you mean by “that conversation”, but thanks anyway.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 4, 2023 18:55:35 GMT -8
|
|