Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 11, 2023 2:31:01 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jan 11, 2023 13:13:09 GMT -8
Another good close with very high volume. Resistance at $135 and at $140 (50 MA). One can dream.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 11, 2023 13:31:32 GMT -8
It's all about CPI tomorrow. Market rose today in anticipation of a light CPI number. If CPI is low, market goes up. If CPI is high, market goes down.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 11, 2023 20:01:46 GMT -8
It's all about CPI tomorrow. Market rose today in anticipation of a light CPI number. If CPI is low, market goes up. If CPI is high, market goes down. Looking at the month over month data, tomorrow's needs to be reasonable, and then the next 6 months need to be reasonable too. It basically averaged out to a percent per month for the first 6 months last year. Replacing those with months averaging to 0.1 to even 0.3 will take some time. data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mthBut once things are on the right trajectory, this is the glide path. Put in a few months averaging 0.1 or whatever, and the trend will likely continue. And looking at their numbers, the last 5 months average out to 0.1/month. With that, you'd think the Fed would be ready to hold steady for a bit. Oil prices play a part already, but rent prices are expected to pull things down more in the future. The Fed does have to hold the line for a bit, and I don't expect them to lower rates for 12-18+ months unless bad things happen. But once December's figure comes out, and it's inline, it seems like the Feb meeting of the Fed would be a time to say "while we still feel we may need to increase rates further this year, we're going to hold steady while more data comes in", giving them another 6 weeks to get data while still holding their line. Like several things currently and in recent times, we know the eventual outcome. It's just the timing and the day to day that has to slowly tick by. But 6 months at their target of something close to a 2% annualized rate is quite a move, and it won't take too many more months IMO for some to start jumping the gun on the Fed, even if they look to be moving slow.
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