Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 16, 2023 0:45:24 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 16, 2023 1:36:54 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Jan 16, 2023 6:30:51 GMT -8
On Tim's pay cut. I really like Greg Thurman's comment --"It makes me think of the overweight woman ordering a banana float and telling the waiter to hold the cherry on top, explaining she’s on a diet." But I have to admit, I am not necessarily against some of these giant salaries. And I like some of the other comments about reading the tea leaves.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 16, 2023 6:48:46 GMT -8
This is from Oaktree . " Sea Change"
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
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Post by Ted on Jan 16, 2023 9:42:03 GMT -8
Color me a tad skeptical, but the China over-reliance issue may be resolved sooner than we anticipate. www.ped30.com/2023/01/16/apple-india-iphones-china/"India is expected to assemble up to 50 per cent of Apple’s iPhones by 2027, up from fewer than 5 per cent at present, to be on par with the scale of production in mainland China, according to a new report."
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Post by zebrum on Jan 16, 2023 10:14:27 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Jan 16, 2023 10:45:33 GMT -8
This is from Oaktree . " Sea Change"It is a long article, and the question I ask is this. "Does the article's assessment have any clear corollary about AAPL?" My take is the assessment implies that AAPL is going nowhere in the next couple of years. AAPL will also continue to provide a low interest return to stock holders. PS I have NO expertise at all in this kind of thing. But I did enjoy the article !
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Jan 16, 2023 15:39:05 GMT -8
On Tim's pay cut. I really like Greg Thurman's comment --"It makes me think of the overweight woman ordering a banana float and telling the waiter to hold the cherry on top, explaining she’s on a diet." The details/numbers don't matter at all. Because people only look at the headlines. And the headline is "Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, requests a pay cut, and a pay cut was granted". Good PR.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 16, 2023 17:51:49 GMT -8
This is from Oaktree . " Sea Change"It is a long article, and the question I ask is this. "Does the article's assessment have any clear corollary about AAPL?" My take is the assessment implies that AAPL is going nowhere in the next couple of years. AAPL will also continue to provide a low interest return to stock holders. PS I have NO expertise at all in this kind of thing. But I did enjoy the article ! I think it depends on what you are searching for. If you only want to invest in years where things are likely to outperform, then yes, this year or years might not be the best...according to that article. OTOH, I would put the start point at the start of the drop. Or even a year previous. If balancing it all out, where do you look. Take off the peak to the high side, and the peak to the low side. Maybe decide where, given a little less agressiveness to the overall investor/market, things should be. Is that 8% annualized instead of an average of 10%? AAPL has managed huge annualized returns over time for the past 20-25 years. But currently, or within the past week or so, the 2 year chart was just barely red, meaning flat for 2 years. What needs to be repriced (lower P/E) for a profitable company, who might be a little less profitable and might have higher borrowing costs, while worrying about potential lower sales to consumers who are also affected by higher borrowing costs and other flat or recessionary issues? If for a 3 year time period that meant 1/3rd of the normal gains, and we're at 2 years of flatness for the stock, that would mean this year could be "normal". Would that be right? Expected? I don't know if it is expected, but coming out of an overcorrection there will be some upward correcting. And that could even beat the longer term averages. If the extremes are often overshoots, that makes sense. The question is still when is that change. Has it already happened, and is the currently 6% gain off the low the start of it? Is a 20% gain off the low, which would still be well off the high, realistic within a year? Part of this depends on how badly the economy gets damaged. Looking at his "current state" observations, which seem accurate enough, people are scared. But is this a flash-crash quick scare (ok, not really that quick, but a similar idea), or a great depression or great recession scare? Or for tech stocks, including AAPL, a dot-com scare? A lot depends on how the next 3 months go. Again, looking at the monthly data for CPI, a lot is likely to change in the next 3 months. And if it does, the Fed and public will be changing their tune, rapidly. I don't expect the Fed to rapidly decrease rates....like the article, it seems like their longer term target should be something positive, maybe around 2%, to give them flexibility if something comes up in the future. At the same time, they don't want to change rates from here too rapidly. We'll see how it goes. This is a time where it is easy to keep people scared, and keep them flat footed. And that might be best for a lot of people. But it is easy to stay conservative, or sit on the sidelines, too long. But that goes back to risk/reward, and where an investor wants to be longer term. At the end of the article he said this: Sounds pretty good. Things are different, and will be different, for a while. There will be opportunities, but they will likely be a little different, at least for a while. One more obvious one is for over leveraged or non-profitable companies. Times may be different for a bit, and we'll have to see how investors choose to value things.
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