Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2023 2:11:34 GMT -8
Good morning. The pre-market is colorless this morning at -0.01% at this moment. So how will this week end? Mark Gurman: Apple eyeing Nest Hub/Pixel Tablet marketI think that this comment says it all. This is a sign of a company that is grasping for straws. John Sculley has returned.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2023 2:29:07 GMT -8
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Post by bud777 on Jan 20, 2023 6:18:22 GMT -8
While the world awaits the next big thing, I think there is a lot of progress to be made in continuing to evolve what we already have. Just think about the functionality that you have right now on the current devices. What do you not use and why? How could it be made better? Now extend that thinking beyond the devices and the UI and think about the flow of your daily life. What are the rough spots? What could be smoothed out? How about applying AI and Siri to your daily routine? For those of us without a wife, how about an intelligent system that reminds us when it is time to get the oil changed or replace the furnace filter? Maybe I am too easily distracted, but I spend a great deal of time creating a to-do list every day ( and then trying to remember where I put it). These are pretty superficial ideas, but I don't think we have scratched the surface of what computers( and Apple devices) can do for us.
This type of vision is what Steve brought to the table. I am not saying that he really saw the potential, but he certainly excelled at taking other people's ideas and using them to fill a need. When I think about the resources available to Apple right now, the huge R&D budget, the tools available to developers, and the sheer marketing power they have, I agree that they seem to have lost their way, but to be fair, The revolution in UI that made the Mac a success really came from PARC and Smalltalk. The functionality that drove the success of the iPhone, in my mind came from access to the Web. I still prefer the folding feature phone for communication. I am not sure what other low-hanging fruit is out there, but all those bright people at Apple surely can find it. They just need to think differently.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 20, 2023 7:33:10 GMT -8
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Post by bud777 on Jan 20, 2023 8:27:50 GMT -8
I was pleased to see that the Motley Fool issued its weekly rare "all-in" buy alert
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2023 10:19:13 GMT -8
Good morning. The pre-market is colorless this morning at -0.01% at this moment. So how will this week end? Mark Gurman: Apple eyeing Nest Hub/Pixel Tablet marketI think that this comment says it all. This is a sign of a company that is grasping for straws. John Sculley has returned. There probably is a good way to do home integration. And while a common UI web based app might do it for most people, there are still going to be times where having a screen at home makes sense, for certain people and certain circumstances. I could see an iPad being that. All along this home automation timeline, and even with a few non-automation things like a backup system or a music server, there has been a need for an always on central hub. For the most part it doesn't need to do any heavy lifting. In the Server group we wanted a home server, but at that time the reasoning just wasn't there for the average user. There might be a little more today, but it is very fragmented, and what is important to one household is likely different for another. The home automation side of things is close. When it first got going (there was an article in the first MacAddict magazine, 26-28 years ago), it was basically a way to make an automated light fixture more widespread, whether you were at home or away. There were some interesting side things to it, like a driveway sensor, and possibly a light sensor. I can't remember if there were thermostats. I don't think there was any way to call in, and most setting modifications were while at home on your computer. Cell phones and non-dialup were still not widespread. IMO home automation still hasn't fully come together. We have a web based thermostat, now on our second one, and a couple cameras. But for us, I haven't seen a need for more. I guess I could see adding a light or two, but most these days are pushing the different color ranges, and I just don't care about that. But with this thermostat, the previous one (zapped after 12 years when we fired up the generator), and now two for bathroom floor heaters, I can see the advantage of a standard app or web based interface to set them up. And this should be even more of a thing as more things get "smart", such as controlling when your traditional water heater is at a certain temp, or when batteries recharge. Going from a small screen on each item, each with their own interface, to instead a standard interface accessed on a larger screen, would be great. Does it happen, and is Apple involved? I don't know. But Apple tends to excel at distilling things down to their most important functions and then giving a UI that makes sense. That is tougher with a fragmented market, but the idea is there. We'll see if Apple moved further into the home automation market. Just because it seems like a good place for them to go, doesn't mean that they will.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2023 12:19:38 GMT -8
Account maintenance time.
Unlike others, I don't have my Roth set up as a DRiP. Since I'm also not withdrawing from the account, the dividends pile up. I just bought a few more shares of AAPL with the balance (edit: from the last 2 AAPL quarterly dividends). The price a few pennies below $137 was probably better than the DRiP's this time around, but given the generally upward nature of AAPL and the market, that's probably not often the case. OTOH, if I only get riled up when AAPL is near a low, and there are still downturns once in a while, I probably do ok too. It's nice to have a little bit of cash to buy with when things are down.
(on my main account I borrow a fair but normally not excessive percentage, so withdrawals or dividends there are just an accounting issue that I've learned to not care about. LTBH and all.)
And I finally verified that in fact they took my DAF contribution from the lowest cost basis shares, as I asked. These were a little under $24/share, from August 2014, back when the short side of a spread caused all of my shares to be sold, having a "tax event" and having to rebuy the next day. The donation value will be based on the day Schwab funded things, but it looks like it will be sub-$130/share, within days of the low. Even so, using LT shares for a donation, directly or through a DAF, is saving me from having to first pay taxes on that over 400% gain, while still getting the complete donation value.
Nice to see AAPL and the market up today. AAPL is now more than 10% off the floor (up 11%), the S&P 13%, and the Nasdaq just more than 10%. It's too early to know if it sticks, but at least that is some room up from the current 52 week lows.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 20, 2023 12:23:33 GMT -8
Home automation? When you feel a need to send an email to your stove or refrigerator, time for the 4 horseman.
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Post by deasys on Jan 20, 2023 12:52:54 GMT -8
The quoted comment is great. Your giving credence to a rumor in your last sentence…well, not so much.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2023 14:29:05 GMT -8
Home automation? When you feel a need to send an email to your stove or refrigerator, time for the 4 horseman. It all depends on what you want. Could firing up the oven to preheat, from a phone while still minutes away, make sense? Pick up a take-and-bake pizza, and need the temp at 500? What about if the fridge could let you know what you have and don't have, while at the store? OTOH, my washer and dryer have the ability to have a dohicky added to them to make them "smart". Ours are inside the house, and I can generally hear their melody no matter where I am. I personally have just not seen the need for them to be smart so that they can let me know their status on my phone, but I can slightly see the use case. Some people have larger houses, washer/dryer in the garage, louder houses, or just really want to know the instant status of their clothes washing and drying, especially in an effort to minimize wrinkles. It might not matter to me, but the real question is how many people care about this, and does it make for an upsell. My parents new washing machine has this feature included, so they get notices, which might help since it's in the garage at the opposite end of the house as their room. One hope is that if there ever was an error, that it would give them a user-readable message about the problem. At the in-laws, with a machine a decade older, it gave the all-so-helpful error "e7". I forget if I searched for it or just took a likely guess, but the filter behind the lower panel had a face mask, a baby sock (likely in there 6+ years), a few screws, a penny and dime, a safety pin, and a few other things. Problem solved! But a notification with the error and how to fix it would have let them fix it a week sooner, instead of me. That said, a scan-able QR code would have worked too. Not all things need to be on the internet to work. But playing appliance-repairman makes me realize there must be a better way.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 20, 2023 17:26:03 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 21, 2023 3:45:45 GMT -8
Very few people will complain about the convenience of home automation and how it makes our lives easier. But the hassle of setting-up the device and having it work dependably is where the frustration comes in. Hopefully, Apples dive into this market was going to simplify the setup and the operation and the dependability of home automation, but it hasn’t. And with each product failure it becomes yet another stain on Apples otherwise white shirt. Does Apple do any real world testing of its products before offering them to the public? I’m guessing not. Plus, how many times has Apple walked away from a market for no apparent reason, such as the AirPort router, which is the foundation of home automation set-up and dependability? So now they want to add a camera to the AppleTV so that someone can FaceTime. Really?
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Post by Lstream on Jan 21, 2023 10:26:16 GMT -8
Very few people will complain about the convenience of home automation and how it makes our lives easier. But the hassle of setting-up the device and having it work dependably is where the frustration comes in. Hopefully, Apples dive into this market was going to simplify the setup and the operation and the dependability of home automation, but it hasn’t. And with each product failure it becomes yet another stain on Apples otherwise white shirt. Does Apple do any real world testing of its products before offering them to the public? I’m guessing not. Plus, how many times has Apple walked away from a market for no apparent reason, such as the AirPort router, which is the foundation of home automation set-up and dependability? So now they want to add a camera to the AppleTV so that someone can FaceTime. Really? I don’t know which home automation products you are using, but whatever they are, your experience does not match mine at all. Plus, the AirPod router is NOT the foundation of home automatic and dependability. I have a Ubiquiti home network, and it supports HomeKit and home automation just fine. Routers are commodities. There was nothing special or unique about the AirPort router being applied to home automation. This post seems like an another rant with no facts to back it up. Also, I can see the use case for Apple TV supporting video conferencing, so why is including a camera such a terrible idea? My home automation setup is not the world”s most sophisticated, but it includes the following: 1. A bunch of Lutron light switches and dimmers 2. A Schlage smart lock that I can unlock with my watch 3. NanoLeaf smart bulbs 4. Moen smart water valve 5. Eufy smart cams with motion sensors. Those motion sensors automatically trigger an operation to turn on lights at the front and back of the house. I can see what is going on with my house from anywhere in the world. Next up is smart garage openers. My research has shown all kinds of people have used these products successfully in an Apple-centric world. I fully expect my experience to be the same. All of this stuff clearly went through real world testing. Setup is relatively simple and operation is reliable. Implying that Apple does not do testing is misplaced hyperbole. Along with several other exaggerations and falsehoods that you post is full of. I get it. You think Tim Cook sucks. You may want to make your case with facts, instead of misplaced opinions. And one more thing. Comparing Cook to Sculley is eye roll worthy. Cmon.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 21, 2023 12:13:43 GMT -8
Yes Lstream and I like you too. I’m guessing that you have a great deal of training and experience dealing with tech. It’s likely that your business is built around it. But take a drive outside of your neighborhood stopping at an average house and question them about their home automation network. And if they have such a network it’s likely that they had to pay someone a great deal of money to install and it requires multiple return visits to keeping their network working, or something close. Even you have complained about Siri and you’re an expert, right? You may view routers as a commodity but it is the gatekeeper to the outside world. And if it requires a pro to setup, secure and maintain then it’s not likely that it will. Apple beats the drum about online security but discontinued the first step for that security. And the AppleTV, the newest one that just made the Ethernet connection an expensive option but wants to add a camera to it for FaceTime. Don’t most smart tvs come with a camera built in already? Maybe it’s because Apple can’t figure out how to connect to the tvs camera. And how many people place the AppleTV in a cabinet or on a self out of sight? Yes, that’s a great idea Tim. And if you were to objectively make an educated comparison between Tim Cook and John Sculley you may agree with me. But I realize that you are trying to unload your aapl shares and would like to have a good exit point. That’s understandable.
Lstream, I’m sure you must remember these posts, because I do. I always read and enjoy what you have to say. And. . .
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Post by Lstream on Jan 21, 2023 15:41:06 GMT -8
Me correlating disagreement here on Scully vs Cook, has nothing to do with me being a long term seller. For that to be true, I would have to believe that negative commentary here influences the share price. I don’t believe that for a second.
You are using your disapproval of Cook to make outlandish claims in my opinion. Like not doing real world testing. We can just agree to disagree on that one. Same goes for Cook vs Scully and Apple routers. I used to run my network on those routers. There is NO DIFFERENCE in the complexity of home automation between Apple routers and third party ones.
I realize that nothing I say is going to move your opinions on Cook. And vice versa. C’est la vie. Keep on drawing an equivalency on Cook vs Scully, but there is no way I am ever buying that one.
Maybe Apple is going to do something stupid with AppleTV. You are slamming Cook based upon unsubstantiated product rumours. Including the Scully comparison. That certainly smacks of a loss of perspective.
What if the new Apple TV was built into a sound bar. And it had a camera. Would that be such a stupid idea?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Jan 21, 2023 23:42:42 GMT -8
back when the short side of a spread caused all of my shares to be sold, having a "tax event" and having to rebuy the next day. This happened to me in 2014, but I wanted to avoid a tax event, so I purchased new shares and delivered those to the buyer of my short option who exercised it. That way, the basis in my old shares remained intact. That purchase was my single largest trade ever, and still remains my largest trade ever till today (it was a LOT of shares!) Yet another reason I dislike that the dividend was reinstated.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Jan 21, 2023 23:48:18 GMT -8
Home automation isn't ready for prime time. It still doesn't do things smoothly. Nothing to do with Apple. I have a washer and dryer with wifi, thermostats, light bulbs, switches, outlets, etc, but none of it really works reliably or in concert. No door locks yet, other than garage door. And none of the kitchen appliances yet.
We have alexa (Amazon echo whatever) and Google Home ones. And, of course Siri on every phone and watch and iPad and Mac.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 22, 2023 2:39:36 GMT -8
Home automation isn't ready for prime time. It still doesn't do things smoothly. Nothing to do with Apple. I have a washer and dryer with wifi, thermostats, light bulbs, switches, outlets, etc, but none of it really works reliably or in concert. No door locks yet, other than garage door. And none of the kitchen appliances yet. We have alexa (Amazon echo whatever) and Google Home ones. And, of course Siri on every phone and watch and iPad and Mac. I have found that many of these devices don’t belong on Bluetooth. They can be unreliable and slow, due to poor Bluetooth performance. Where possible, I am now attempting to select devices that have Thread support. My Schlage Encode+ lock supports Thread and it has been rock solid. Thread significantly enhances reliability and performance. Battery life too.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 22, 2023 9:45:58 GMT -8
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