Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2023 1:59:29 GMT -8
It’s another Monday morning and the pre-market is red at -0.14% at this moment.
Todays Events:
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2023 2:53:58 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2023 3:14:27 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 23, 2023 6:52:49 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2023 7:37:33 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 23, 2023 8:10:30 GMT -8
Sometimes it worries me when the people writing the original article, or people reposting it in a major way (PED), don't look at the details. Ironwood's numbers are low enough (hmmm, they bought 1040 new shares? I bought more than that) that it piqued my interest because something didn't look right. Sure enough, the article is using something around a $174/share value for AAPL to figure out the dollar value of AAPL these hedge funds have. Possibly the end value of 2021, even though we are in 2023 now. Someone is using old values, or even old data for the whole thing. The article is dated right, but the Hedge fund section has no links to the original data, or mention of dates/quarters/timeframes. I'll sell all of my AAPL today at $174 if a hedgie wants to buy it for that, while in the open market AAPL is having a nice gain at $141. The tax event, and buying back in, would be well worth it. Interesting that none of the commenters on PED have picked up on that. Hmmmm
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 23, 2023 10:08:58 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 23, 2023 10:11:37 GMT -8
Thanks 4aapl for pointing that out. I did what most/many people do where they read the headlines and develop an opinion, which in this case is that if the hedge funds are buying then I also need to buy, without digging into the story. But the story sounded good on the surface.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 23, 2023 12:42:03 GMT -8
Apple is actually overbought on the 7 day chart, not seen since Oct. and Aug. before this. Since Buffett bought TSM it has been a good stock to own. Dramatic price increases follow if the OB signal continues on and then the 14 day signal becomes overbought and continues. But some are saying this is another Bear head fake and we will plunge again. Apple earnings on Groundhog day will probably be impactful. I see the june 2025 options have appeared for those who trade distantly expiring options.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 23, 2023 13:36:07 GMT -8
Thanks 4aapl for pointing that out. I did what most/many people do where they read the headlines and develop an opinion, which in this case is that if the hedge funds are buying then I also need to buy, without digging into the story. But the story sounded good on the surface. FWIW, I don't take issue with you posting it. Nor for PED, really, but since he runs a paid site I would think he would have caught that. But the posters at PED's site? I guess for all of the talk that I see in the comments there, and knowing the history on a few of the posters, I just would have expected someone to catch that. Especially once talking about numbers that overlap with what is personally owned by several individual investors here and supposedly there. My understanding is that as a group here, of the people that have posted numbers or eluded to them, we have at least 1M shares, and potentially 2-3M if not more. We might not have the control of a reddit group on a penny stock, but apparently we have more than some small hedge funds. But you're right. The overall story isn't that someone made a math mistake. Instead, it is that some people are buying. It would have been nice to see a few dates in that part of the story, since there are times where old news is shown as new (sometimes this happens on Yahoo, CNN or SFGate, where it is reposted, or shown in a current post and so I click on it and at first think it is recent). Seeing a mention of December Q 22 would have been nice.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 23, 2023 14:12:18 GMT -8
Apple is actually overbought on the 7 day chart, not seen since Oct. and Aug. before this. Since Buffett bought TSM it has been a good stock to own. Dramatic price increases follow if the OB signal continues on and then the 14 day signal becomes overbought and continues. But some are saying this is another Bear head fake and we will plunge again. Apple earnings on Groundhog day will probably be impactful. I see the june 2025 options have appeared for those who trade distantly expiring options. Do many people look at if things are overbought on the 7 day chart? A 14 day period for RSI already is a strange amount, just less than 3 full weeks of trading (though the full calculation is ongoing, so is affected by a larger period, but I don't actually know by how much (could an RSI of 30 with neutral movement out 14 days instead be a 29 or 31 based on a bullish or bearish move previous to the 14 days, or are we talking 0.1 changes, or 0.01, or what?)) But 7? This quickly gets into the oddities sometimes mentioned. 100DMA, instead of the more often followed 20/50/200. Or switching from daily values to weekly values, so 20WMA, or RSI on a weekly basis. At some point data mining and "analysis" just gets to be too much. As someone who watches some football occasionally but isn't a mega-fan, this is the equivalent to some of the stats thrown around in the commentary over the past 2 weeks. I truthfully don't think it matters much if that was the longest thrown in the playoffs in 37 years on the 2nd play of the second quarter. Then again, maybe I just don't fully understand the advantage the RSI on a 7 day basis, or the 100 DMA, could give me.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 24, 2023 11:46:43 GMT -8
Then again, maybe I just don't fully understand the advantage the RSI on a 7 day basis, or the 100 DMA, could give me.
Good point. The 7 day is a leading indicator so if the 14 day goes on to overbought status that shows the momentum involved. It is like a player on the 10 yard line, usually they score but sometimes they fumble on the 1.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 24, 2023 12:23:56 GMT -8
Then again, maybe I just don't fully understand the advantage the RSI on a 7 day basis, or the 100 DMA, could give me. Good point. The 7 day is a leading indicator so if the 14 day goes on to overbought status that shows the momentum involved. It is like a player on the 10 yard line, usually they score but sometimes they fumble on the 1. So you are using the 7 day RSI as an indicator on the normal 14 day RSI, basically as a quicker indicator of change of direction? Nothing is perfect. That would give a sub-50 reading after over 3 days of moving down, if there had just been 3 up days. At the same time, maybe that is too quick to see a trend, instead picking up one quick brake tap on the freeway instead of general traffic or an accident. I look at the standard RSI, but really only as a reminder of where things are. And since I mostly don't try to play the market, it really doesn't matter to me, though occasionally when things feel grim seeing a print of 30 is a good reminder that in fact things have been bad for a bit and that's why it feels that way. No matter. I just didn't know a 7 day RSI was a thing that some people followed. (FWIW, AAPL is almost at the 100 DMA
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 24, 2023 13:06:43 GMT -8
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