Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2023 14:38:15 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Feb 4, 2023 2:39:11 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Feb 4, 2023 12:09:51 GMT -8
Interestingly there was a huge gap up after earnings. This took apple above the 200 and 250 day moving averages. It also took the 7 & 14 day RSI's to the overbought territory. During the first covid crash, I call this tech wreck the 2nd, Apple road the upper RSI from April to Sept.. Sell at your risk, never wrong to take a profit. But...it ain't over until it is.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 4, 2023 12:30:11 GMT -8
Interestingly there was a huge gap up after earnings. This took apple above the 200 and 250 day moving averages. It also took the 7 & 14 day RSI's to the overbought territory. During the first covid crash, I call this tech wreck the 2nd, Apple road the upper RSI from April to Sept.. Sell at your risk, never wrong to take a profit. But...it ain't over until it is. Thanks Duckpins for the reminder. That's something to keep in mind.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Feb 4, 2023 12:34:51 GMT -8
Splash One.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 4, 2023 18:44:38 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2023 2:29:39 GMT -8
For those looking for some technical discussions, check this out: AAPL Technicals
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2023 2:41:29 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 5, 2023 6:33:18 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2023 8:05:29 GMT -8
Blackberry didn’t fail due to increasing the price. They were victims of a disruption that they could not or would not respond to - the multitouch user interface. They defined themselves as the kings of the keyboard interface. They refused to embrace multi-touch until it was too late. And when they did, it was a half-hearted Android knockoff approach. Further, they fought the transition from a basic phone to a multi-purpose app-based hand-held device. Jim Balsillie could barely contain his contempt for this, as evidenced by his “app tonnage” language. Then there was hubris. When they finally launched a tablet, one of the ads said “amateur hour is over”. That was completely cringeworthy, and so out-of-touch as to be laughable. Blackberry failed due to a stunning lack of leadership and misplaced arrogance, when faced with a life threatening disruption. Apple tweaking its pricing model is not comparable to the RIM/Blackberry debacle at all. And lest we forget, there was Steve Balmer opening mocking Apple’s premium pricing model. Where is the Microsoft phone business now?
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Post by duckpins on Feb 5, 2023 11:26:06 GMT -8
Blackberry had devotees like Obama who refused to give it up. People with pointy little fingers loved the tiny keypad. That was all they had going for them. Same was true with Palm Pilot. The first ones were innovative before the iPhone but the Treo was the worst phone I ever owned. Went through 6 on warranty. The consolidation of the phone, camera and internet device was not an easy task.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 5, 2023 22:06:15 GMT -8
Blackberry had devotees like Obama who refused to give it up. People with pointy little fingers loved the tiny keypad. That was all they had going for them. Same was true with Palm Pilot. The first ones were innovative before the iPhone but the Treo was the worst phone I ever owned. Went through 6 on warranty. The consolidation of the phone, camera and internet device was not an easy task. A friend had a Treo when looking for a restaurant in San Jose, where he was, eventually, able to pull up a menu. I have no idea what the speed actually was, but my first 2400 baud modem seemed like it was faster. Motorola's "2-way" pager, similar to an old flip phone or blackberry, with a keyboard on the bottom half, was innovative at the time. It was great being able to type out a short email, when we were about to cross into Mexico for scuba diving. MOT had upgraded our basic pagers to those...a sign of things to come, with so many people these days feeling they are being on call all the time. But look at Apple, with just 2 of the things that come to mind, where they stood their ground for a bit, but then moved on. One is music streaming. There was a day, or even an age, where Apple was against that, saying their customers wanted ownership. Some of us stuck with that, possibly for too long, but one of my daughters got a kick out of seeing the CD collection that I still had, and even listening to many of them. But with tonight's Grammies, I had many of those Hip Hop songs, on CD or tape, purchased or not. At the same time, what does it matter? If, like the TV commercial from the early 2000's of the run-down motel that has "every movie, ever made", what do you care about ownership if you can watch or listen to whatever you want, at any time? Looking through some of these streaming video choices, it's amazing how much stuff I know of, but just wouldn't choose to watch. Personally, I never wanted to own TV shows as I mostly never wanted to watch them again, but there aren't even too many movies I would want to watch again and again. Apple's other obvious one to me is the large format smartphone. It is nice to have a small one, as far as a small footprint in the pocket. But even so, my 11 in huge compared to the 4's, 5's and 6's. And now, with the realization that my focal length has changed just a little in the last few years, I'm wondering about a 14+ instead of just a 14. $100 more. But most of my jeans have plenty large enough pockets for it. What else will Apple eventually change from? Axing the 17" MBP, then changing the 15" to a 14" and adding a 16"? Changing ports over the year, especially on the video port front. Is lightning to USB on the iPhone the next, pushed via the courts? But what about a foldable iPhone? I think Apple tries to not completely paint themselves into a corner. They might get there somewhat (Bunny ads making fun of Intel processors, back with the G3's), but manage to not leave too much baggage when they eventually pivot (Intel chips! Until the M-line processors). Tim just tried to answer that way, with the iPhone pricing question. Google is evil and the rival...but people like them for search, so we'll leave them as the default and get paid for it. Since I'm hanging out at cell carriers a bit (Verizon takes trade-ins in any condition as long as the battery isn't swelled (seriously, cracked screens or non-working is fine), whereas T-Mobile needs a non-cracked front screen, powers up, functions, and unlocked/no find-my-iphone), so I have to wait a couple days until my new battery arrives. $25 battery for a $400 trade-in....I'll take that math any day), I'll have to do some more recon on those foldable Samsungs. I hadn't realized the back of the Google phones is a huge raised metal arch. Crazy design, even if it protects it. Time for some competitive analysis. Have a good week everyone! Hopefully this week with be another green one. Careful out there, if dealing with weather and its aftermath. Looks like I get to clip in and play on the roof, since an ice dam is acting up again. I'm ready for spring, even if that groundhog wants to wait a bit.
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Post by rezonate on Feb 6, 2023 2:58:28 GMT -8
Loved my Treo 600. So many good memories it enabled. First connected device I had with a camera and it totally transformed my work as a traveling site inspector, around 2004. People back at the office couldn't believe they were being looped in with on-site conditions.
Music streaming is terrible. I can't download Apple music and burn it to CD. Apparently you can if you don't have a subscription. So, what do I do - create a different Apple ID for buying music and keep my existing "everything I already have" Apple ID for streaming? A complete disaster.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 6, 2023 3:14:27 GMT -8
Apple has always had a problem of perceived arrogance and of being overpriced. And those that consistently bought their products were looked at as a cult, mindlessly buying overpriced products while less expensive products were available. You could talk to people about the quality, dependability, ease of use and design all day, but they could only see the high price and the fear of being associated with those that were blind mindless followers. Tim’s statement can easily be seen as reinforcing those fears and as the public finds it more and more difficult to make ends meet financially in this climate, people will have to make a choice between keeping food on the table or buying the latest shiny new Apple product. I know what I would do if faced with such a choice. Tim needs to get out ahead of this in some way or his statement could be interpreted as “ Let them eat cake”. And remember that it isn’t just Apples competition that is looking for an advantage, but Big Brother is also looking for a leverage point to capture some of those high profits. Just sayin.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 6, 2023 3:25:01 GMT -8
Loved my Treo 600. So many good memories it enabled. First connected device I had with a camera and it totally transformed my work as a traveling site inspector, around 2004. People back at the office couldn't believe they were being looped in with on-site conditions. Music streaming is terrible. I can't download Apple music and burn it to CD. Apparently you can if you don't have a subscription. So, what do I do - create a different Apple ID for buying music and keep my existing "everything I already have" Apple ID for streaming? A complete disaster. I agree. After seeing family members problems with Apple Music I’ve refused to fall into that trap. It makes little sense to rent some things, such as music. There are very few songs that I care for today, and those that I like I’ll buy and keep. But, to each their own.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 6, 2023 12:01:52 GMT -8
Tim has no feel for talking with people i e customers. Jobs was the master. Cook is like a tall Basketball player like James wiseman with all the skill and no feel for the game. He should concentrate on areas where his skills are useful. That quote was arrogant. No other way to put it.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 6, 2023 16:24:32 GMT -8
Tim has no feel for talking with people i e customers. Jobs was the master. Cook is like a tall Basketball player like James wiseman with all the skill and no feel for the game. He should concentrate on areas where his skills are useful. That quote was arrogant. No other way to put it. Have you tried rereading it? Each time I've read it, it talks about the average selling price, and Tim has said the importance people put on a phone these days, and that they are often willing to pay a little more. To me, that's that people are often willing to step up a level, because they value the supercomputer in their pocket, that is often the electronic that they use the most in their life. Plus there's that whole "useful life" thing. We're looking at new cell plans, and there are trade-in values if we want to upgrade. They are willing to give me a "free" 14, if I trade in my 11. Seems like an obvious thing to do, even though I'm perfectly happy with my 11 and would likely otherwise keep it another 2 years. With T-mobile, there are just 2 trade-in values for an iPhone promotion they are running, so it's at the $800 level or $400. So for my wife's 13 Pro, it would also be a $800 credit. Is it worth $200 to upgrade to a 14 pro? Again, for the electronic item she uses most, has on her nearly all the time? Better camera, faster processor, SOS, and a new battery? OTOH, we can trade in a few spare old iPhones, an 8 and 8+ (or our SE 2nd gen or SE 3rd gen), and get that $400 credit. My son, who has been working a fair amount so feels he has money to spend (and bought his own Apple Watch and AirPods), wants to upgrade to a 14 from his SE 2nd gen. But one of my daughters would be getting her first cell phone. For that, we'll probably go with an SE, or maybe a 13 mini. There are lots of options, at a variety of price points. To me, our own experience somewhat sums up what Tim was trying to say, that customers themselves often find value in iPhones, and so boost up the level that they get. He could have added that, that Apple has iPhones at a variety of price points, but often finds customers picking higher priced iPhones. And my understanding is that this is what Apple has found this time around even just with the 14 series, that a lot of people are going with a 14 Pro instead of a 14 (or 14+). Tim probably should have added that. But even without that, I don't find his comment too cringe-worthy. But maybe that is just the difference in how I choose to read it vs how you (but not just you) choose to interpret it.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 7, 2023 3:21:29 GMT -8
So, why is Apple offering such deep discounts on their #1 product? What are the carriers going to do with these older iPhones that they are willing to pay $400 for, or I should ask what is Apple going to do with them? Refurbish and resale or in some cases recycle. Maybe an attempt at keeping customers from wandering outside of the tent. Last quarter Apple lost sales because of a lack of supply, this quarter it may be a loss of sales because of a lack of customers. And I have read Tim’s statement many times over and I continue to see the same arrogance with each reading. There are times when Tim stays silent when he should speak and times that he should not speak but does, which is something that is not uncommon for anyone. But someone in his position is being paid to know the difference.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 7, 2023 9:52:10 GMT -8
So, why is Apple offering such deep discounts on their #1 product? What are the carriers going to do with these older iPhones that they are willing to pay $400 for, or I should ask what is Apple going to do with them? Refurbish and resale or in some cases recycle. Maybe an attempt at keeping customers from wandering outside of the tent. Last quarter Apple lost sales because of a lack of supply, this quarter it may be a loss of sales because of a lack of customers. And I have read Tim’s statement many times over and I continue to see the same arrogance with each reading. There are times when Tim stays silent when he should speak and times that he should not speak but does, which is something that is not uncommon for anyone. But someone in his position is being paid to know the difference. On the Tim front, I personally think their PR needs a little tweaking. This might just be a style and choice thing, but it does seem that a little adjustment would avoid some of the problems, and not really cause others. The main one that really stands out to me was the "old battery on an iPhone" speed throttling. As someone who was affected by their old iPhone turning off, even when it was 50 degrees outside, I think this was an amazing thing for Apple to add. But they needed to be upfront about it, and let people have their choice, instead of the "Apple Way" which more-so in the past was to make the best decision for the end user, while simplifying choices to make them user friendly. As for the cell phone trade-in offers, I imagine some they resell here in the US (my wife's 13 pro is in great shape...after we figured out that the ringer not working was just a secondary or tertiary setting on the Control Center page), that some go to secondary markets (lots of places in the world that could use cheap phones, but potentially even pre-paid cellular in the US), and a bunch get trashed/recycled. Instead it's just another twist on keeping their customers. With T-mobile, the credit comes over 2 years. Simplifying the math, let's say it was a direct trade for a $800 credit against a $800 phone. Call that $40 a month. So they give me a $40 credit against the $40 I owe that month on the new one. All balanced out. But if I want to leave before it is paid off, I have to pay all that hasn't been paid off. So after a year, call that $400. And they are tied in to your credit report (owww, these are only for people with "good credit", but I don't know their limits), and "lock" the new iPhone. On Verizon, it's over 3 years, so the credit and payoff is slower. That's helpful for those wanting to make payments, helping bring down those monthly charges ($1k iPhone but $400 trade-in, call it $20 a month instead of $30). But Verizon makes out well too, locking you in for 3 years instead of just 2. (FWIW, one of the messed up things on Verizon is that they give different credits based on different plans. So yes, they have a $25/month per line plan, but they have limited or no trade-ins with that. OTOH, pay $55/month/line, and they'll give a $1k credit against that 13 pro, or $800 if on the $45/month plan. And don't forget about your free streaming packages, or other perks. It seemed exactly like the mint mobile ad. Or a stereotypical used car lot) This is all fairly similar to the old standard of paying for your phones but locking you in. It's just a little twist on it. But it's what kept us away from switching or getting a new plan, since before they weren't giving this credit with older phones. In the mean time, ATT has taken our plan (2 iPhones) from $70 or $80/month, which included a subsidy for our iPhones (I think that was back with the 5S's), to currently $120/month while not subsidizing anything. The whole thing bugs me a bit. The kids have been on Mint Mobile now for nearly 2 years. Good coverage, and only $15/month if you pay a year at a time. My wife isn't sure on it and thinks the coverage might be a little less than ATT, so she wants to keep her line with a primary carrier. But maybe in a couple years. FWIW, we still have areas around with bad or no coverage, but mainly once a couple miles in on hiking and biking trails in the mountains. Verizon looks to have a little better coverage, and so would slightly be my preferred choice. But even talking to them in person, they just weren't pulling it all together, trying to sell me on a plan that cost double while giving me no reasons that it was beneficial, all the while attempting to make things complicated. Maybe it was just a bad sales woman. But it wasn't clear and concise. So, long story short, this is just another tactic from the carriers to draw you in, not too dissimilar to what was standard 10-15 years ago. Don't worry....they get their chunk. Some now ($35/line activation), some ongoing (get you on an overpriced plan....even with T-Mobile, it's $30/line including taxes, for basically the same thing as what Mint Mobile charges $15/month including taxes), and some later (some large percent don't change their plan or phones exactly once paid off). And Apple could do a little better on optics/PR. They are pretty good, while also trying to do the right thing, but there is still some room for improvement if looking to be critical about it.
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