4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 15, 2023 14:31:19 GMT -8
With inflation working on dropping (12 month is now 6.0%), I find it helpful to look at the month over month change. It's messy, but puts things in the right direction a bit quicker than waiting for 12 full months. But I was trying to figure out why the numbers I saw didn't quite match. It said CPI-U, but... Turns out the page I was looking at was the unadjusted numbers. That seems like a good one to look at: data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth (with monthly data going back to 2013) But the more often reported numbers, when monthly data is mentioned, is the seasonally adjusted data. This page shows the most recent 7 months www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm and the main page has a link to this and to other formats of the data www.bls.gov/cpi/I prefer the unadjusted, always wondering a tiny bit about what they do to seasonally adjust something (though seasonal food, and toy/gift prices can help paint part of the picture, and even CR gives "best times to buy" items, which means there is also a worst time). Either way, it makes sense to at least pay a little attention to the M-O-M data. If the next 4 months of old data get replaced with 0.6 for each, the YOY would drop from about 6 to about 4. Instead throw the same 6 months to the end of the year string seen on the unadjusted data, and suddenly things are at the Fed's stated target. We'll see how it goes.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 7, 2023 7:27:57 GMT -8
Looking at that spreadsheet for unadjusted values, November and December are often negative, and occasionally October too. And that makes sense, both with discounted holiday sales, but also sales everywhere trying to sell things before the calendar year ends, such as discounts on cars.
Last year's January number was 0.8, so we'll have to wait until the next 4 months of data get in to replace that. But in the next 4-6 months it might be possible to get down to the mid 2's or even the 2.0 level.
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 12, 2023 15:47:09 GMT -8
Looking at that spreadsheet for unadjusted values, November and December are often negative, and occasionally October too. And that makes sense, both with discounted holiday sales, but also sales everywhere trying to sell things before the calendar year ends, such as discounts on cars. Last year's January number was 0.8, so we'll have to wait until the next 4 months of data get in to replace that. But in the next 4-6 months it might be possible to get down to the mid 2's or even the 2.0 level. I've read that the Fed governors prefer using the PCE numbers rather than the CPI numbers. How are those doing? And what are those comps for nov/dec/jan? Probably similar to CPI, but perhaps of different magnitude?
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,635
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 12, 2023 21:31:11 GMT -8
Looking at that spreadsheet for unadjusted values, November and December are often negative, and occasionally October too. And that makes sense, both with discounted holiday sales, but also sales everywhere trying to sell things before the calendar year ends, such as discounts on cars. Last year's January number was 0.8, so we'll have to wait until the next 4 months of data get in to replace that. But in the next 4-6 months it might be possible to get down to the mid 2's or even the 2.0 level. I've read that the Fed governors prefer using the PCE numbers rather than the CPI numbers. How are those doing? And what are those comps for nov/dec/jan? Probably similar to CPI, but perhaps of different magnitude? Ugh! Each of these government websites is a little different. I'm sure the info is there, but with the CPI I was so happy to find it that I had to bookmark it and post it here. I think it's the same with the PCE, that is at the BEA instead of the BLS. This is a starting point, but the press release only gives a few months, whereas the links to more details give full pricing for the past 3.5 years, but not the simple YOY or monthly change, at least as far as I see. It really is data overload. www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/mainIt's likely there somewhere. If you come across it, post the URL. I'll look some more when I have more patience. EDIT: Think I found it. monthly PCE data "Table 2.8.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product, Monthly" Once there you can click modify to have it show more years. Or to go back to where there were human readable URLs (and more likely to survive an app update), go to www.bea.gov/itable/national-gdp-and-personal-income and click on "Interactive Data Tables". It looks like that Section 2, and then Table 2.8.1, is what we were looking for. But there are lots of other choices too, even if only some of them are Monthly (M) instead of Annually or Quarterly.
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