Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Mar 17, 2023 0:57:23 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Mar 17, 2023 1:07:30 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Mar 17, 2023 1:20:55 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Mar 17, 2023 5:16:33 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Mar 17, 2023 6:10:11 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 17, 2023 9:06:53 GMT -8
The article's point was people retreating to "safety", specifically the FAANG group. In reading a couple articles on recent banking scares, these quotes stood out: Different people feel differently about the government stepping in to backstop things, especially if they backstop at the full value. Like Buffet or the US Government stepping in in 2008, some of these cases just need extra backing to keep from having short term losses, where they should end up having long term gains. US Housing, in most cases but not in certain cases where a factory or sawmill goes under, should go up. Bonds, if held for the whole period, should do ok (as long as the underlying companies stick around too). Investors OTOH do have to be careful. There are times where things go to zero, or real close. Back with Lehman, the stock didn't quite go to zero. It was bought at 2 something, and then repriced up to 8 or so. Give or take. It comes down to that "residual value", in general, decided by the Fed, or decided by the likes of Bankruptcy. Investors are on edge, even without this, since we're solidly in the middle ground. I'd rather a rush towards AAPL be seen as a race towards profits than a race towards safety. But a push up, no matter the cause, would be nice. Even if it takes getting past this quad witching hour and the Fed meeting.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 17, 2023 10:02:12 GMT -8
There was a Kiplinger article last week on "what would I have if I invested $1k in AAPL, 20 years ago". www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/invested-1000-in-apple-stock-worth-how-much-nowIt had been in the stock app, and so I lost the link at the time. But i just hunted it down, and then verified pricing with yahoo. 20 years ago, split and dividend adjusted, you're talking around 22 cents per share. I knew AAPL had done well. But I didn't know the difference was basically 2 orders of magnitude. As a group we have done very well by investing in AAPL over the years and decades.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Mar 17, 2023 10:23:02 GMT -8
I believe that AAPL would be that place of safety that investors could and would run to were it not for its exposure to, involvement with and dependence on of China. With the de-globalization of trade, and the security that it provided, nations are now returning to the practice of simply taking what they want from others instead of trading one commodity for another peacefully. A return to the ways of the past. Apple isn’t just in a position of losing the Chinese market, which would be bad enough, but also losing most of its other markets around the world because of its manufacturing dependence on this one unstable nation. We can only imagine at what level AAPL would be trading at now were it not for this problem.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 17, 2023 12:03:59 GMT -8
Funny how that $155.00 with 137,000 options expiring today acted as a tractor beam. Right on the mark.
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Post by duckpins on Mar 17, 2023 12:15:08 GMT -8
Funny how that $155.00 with 137,000 options expiring today acted as a tractor beam. Right on the mark. Just a coincidence? Banks are amplifying heat. Pressed Rat and Warthog have closed down their shop. They didn't want to, 'twas all they had got If you are a bank ceo with billions in bonds which are sinking like a stone maybe it is just easier to throw up your hands and let the government worry. Feels like the edge of a cliff.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 17, 2023 12:18:54 GMT -8
There was a Kiplinger article last week on "what would I have if I invested $1k in AAPL, 20 years ago". www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/invested-1000-in-apple-stock-worth-how-much-nowIt had been in the stock app, and so I lost the link at the time. But i just hunted it down, and then verified pricing with yahoo. 20 years ago, split and dividend adjusted, you're talking around 22 cents per share.
I knew AAPL had done well. But I didn't know the difference was basically 2 orders of magnitude. As a group we have done very well by investing in AAPL over the years and decades.The first record I have of my wife and I buying AAPL is for 236 AAPL shares we purchased for $3,519.10 on 12/22/00. Thanks to the splits you mentioned, those 236 shares have become 13,215 shares...for which our average split-adjusted cost basis is $.27/share. Not $.22/share...but close. We basically bought AAPL shares whenever we got enough ahead on our mortgage and other expenses that we could afford to do so. We never waited until the stock price pulled back as it has since early 2022. Perhaps we would have been smarter to do so, but we looked at buying AAPL as a such a long term investment that we figured any minor fluctuations in price wouldn't amount to much over the long term. I believe that the folks who are wanting AAPL to drop to $100/share, planing to "back up the truck" when that happens, will end up failing to buy AAPL shares. BWDIK
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Mar 17, 2023 12:27:49 GMT -8
Investors OTOH do have to be careful. There are times where things go to zero, or real close. Back with Lehman, the stock didn't quite go to zero. It was bought at 2 something, and then repriced up to 8 or so. Give or take. I think that was Bear Stearns, Lehman is still in bankruptcy proceedings and the attorneys are continuing to milk it. In the end Bear Stearns was sold to JPM for about $10/share. In the current environment of mild anti-banker sentiment, I think politically the residual value of the equity of a failed enterprise supported by fed and/or government would have to be zero or very close to zero. It's not just a rush to Apple, it's a rush to "real companies" with "real profits" and none of that non-GAAP nonsense that is so often used to present "fake" rosier-than-reality views of profit.
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