Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Mar 17, 2023 12:56:47 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 17, 2023 18:51:48 GMT -8
In response to a suggestion/request from cdnphoto, I'm posting an update of the recovery chart I posted last week. All 6 stocks on the recovery chart have gained ground over the last week. GOOG gained the most, 71% recovered compared to 63% recovered last week. However, take a good look at all the trend lines. GOOG and AMZN trend lines are almost horizontal...NFLX is heading down instead of up...META and TSLA have a steeper slop than AAPL. But I'm perfectly happy that, even though it doesn't have the steepest recovery slope, AAPL's 85% recovered and therefore closest to returning to the share price it had on 03/03/22. It may take weeks or months for AAPL to recover completely, but I believe all of us invested in AAPL for the long term will be just fine.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Mar 18, 2023 2:31:24 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Mar 18, 2023 6:27:11 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 18, 2023 7:34:22 GMT -8
In response to a suggestion/request from cdnphoto, I'm posting an update of the recovery chart I posted last week. All 6 stocks on the recovery chart have gained ground over the last week. GOOG gained the most, 71% recovered compared to 63% recovered last week. However, take a good look at all the trend lines. GOOG and AMZN trend lines are almost horizontal...NFLX is heading down instead of up...META and TSLA have a steeper slop than AAPL. But I'm perfectly happy that, even though it doesn't have the steepest recovery slope, AAPL's 85% recovered and therefore closest to returning to the share price it had on 03/03/22. It may take weeks or months for AAPL to recover completely, but I believe all of us invested in AAPL for the long term will be just fine. View AttachmentI don't understand the green vertical lines. I thought they would be to highlight the date that a stock's trend line passes 100%, but they don't. Maybe they did in past versions, and weren't updated? (EDIT: Looks like that is it. On the 7th they were lined up. On the 10th they weren't, but now had labels. Same with this weekend's. List view makes it easy to compare this, but also makes it nice to compare those slopes. aaplfinance.proboards.com/user/34/recent ) For some reason I always think of the "% recovery" as the rebound off the bottom. So I tend to think of a stock that lost 50% ($50, from a former $100 high), and has recovered to 25% off its top (so at $75), to have had a 50% recovery. As opposed to calling it a 50% recovery at the very bottom (at $50, no recovery yet), and 75% recovery when at $75. Maybe that method helps add in the "beta", while also potentially figuring in the slope of recovery, since a 50% recovery in stocks that lost 10%, 30%, and 60% (and had the same high and low dates, often roughly true when market-wide moves happen) would all have the same potential date of full recovery. It's only slightly more work since you have to identify that low price. I think it's a little more helpful, but it's not quite as simple as the "make me whole" percentage.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Mar 18, 2023 8:57:08 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 18, 2023 11:54:54 GMT -8
In response to a suggestion/request from cdnphoto, I'm posting an update of the recovery chart I posted last week. All 6 stocks on the recovery chart have gained ground over the last week. GOOG gained the most, 71% recovered compared to 63% recovered last week. However, take a good look at all the trend lines. GOOG and AMZN trend lines are almost horizontal...NFLX is heading down instead of up...META and TSLA have a steeper slop than AAPL. But I'm perfectly happy that, even though it doesn't have the steepest recovery slope, AAPL's 85% recovered and therefore closest to returning to the share price it had on 03/03/22. It may take weeks or months for AAPL to recover completely, but I believe all of us invested in AAPL for the long term will be just fine. View Attachment I don't understand the green vertical lines. I thought they would be to highlight the date that a stock's trend line passes 100%, but they don't. Maybe they did in past versions, and weren't updated? (EDIT: Looks like that is it. On the 7th they were lined up. On the 10th they weren't, but now had labels. Same with this weekend's. List view makes it easy to compare this, but also makes it nice to compare those slopes. aaplfinance.proboards.com/user/34/recent ) I put the green lines for W/E 03/03/23 to highlight where the trend line indicated that those two stocks, AAPL and TSLA, would regain the share price they had on 01/03/22...I left them in to remind people that the trend lines will no doubt change from week to week and that trend lines are only worthwhile at that particular point in time. I'm enclosing the chart from 03/03/23 to illustrate that the vertical green lines allowed one to easily see the dates where AAPL and TSLA would regain their 01/03/23 share price according to the trend line projection on 03/03/23. Obviously, those AAPL and TSLA recovery dates are no longer feasible...I left them on the chart to remind viewers of what *had* been projected, back on 03/03/23. For some reason I always think of the "% recovery" as the rebound off the bottom. So I tend to think of a stock that lost 50% ($50, from a former $100 high), and has recovered to 25% off its top (so at $75), to have had a 50% recovery. As opposed to calling it a 50% recovery at the very bottom (at $50, no recovery yet), and 75% recovery when at $75. Maybe that method helps add in the "beta", while also potentially figuring in the slope of recovery, since a 50% recovery in stocks that lost 10%, 30%, and 60% (and had the same high and low dates, often roughly true when market-wide moves happen) would all have the same potential date of full recovery. It's only slightly more work since you have to identify that low price. I think it's a little more helpful, but it's not quite as simple as the "make me whole" percentage. I didn't start out with the chart I originally posted...in fact, I didn't have a chart at all. It was a table I first put together to summarize the 2022 losses experienced by AAPL and five other popular stocks. I was pleased to see that, as battered as the six stocks were in 2022, AAPL lost the least % in share price...TSLA lost the most. After summarizing the losses in 2022, I wanted to examine the recovery progress in 2023. Here's the tables I put together showing the results for W/E 02/10/23. I gravitated to the chart I'm using now because it didn't make sense to me to continue having to update the tables every week to see how the stocks were progressing. Plus, one couldn't view gains or losses from the previous weeks which prevented easily determining whether a stock's recovery rate was improving or diminishing.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Mar 19, 2023 6:22:39 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 19, 2023 11:08:38 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Mar 20, 2023 2:12:01 GMT -8
Saw the title on PED, but it looks like he's going down the route of a subscriber only site. I would hate to see PED go down that road of subscriptions only. It makes me think of The Braeburn Group, which I was a member of, that quickly became nothing but an echo chamber, and where anyone that that offered a differing viewpoint were quickly abused and run off. Hopefully if this is the path that he is taking with his site that it works well for him and everyone there.
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Post by macster on Mar 20, 2023 8:33:49 GMT -8
Saw the title on PED, but it looks like he's going down the route of a subscriber only site. I would hate to see PED go down that road of subscriptions only. It makes me think of The Braeburn Group, which I was a member of, that quickly became nothing but an echo chamber, and where anyone that that offered a differing viewpoint were quickly abused and run off. Hopefully if this is the path that he is taking with his site that it works well for him and everyone there. At one point reading PED was originally for paid subscribers and later surprisingly, opened for non subscribers without any notification as I recall. I enjoyed reading there except for the biased political viewpoints without hardly any push back. Did PED not know that his behind paywall forum was open and just recently saw the error and closed it up again?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2023 8:59:52 GMT -8
I would hate to see PED go down that road of subscriptions only. It makes me think of The Braeburn Group, which I was a member of, that quickly became nothing but an echo chamber, and where anyone that that offered a differing viewpoint were quickly abused and run off. Hopefully if this is the path that he is taking with his site that it works well for him and everyone there. At one point reading PED was originally for paid subscribers and later surprisingly, opened for non subscribers without any notification as I recall. I enjoyed reading there except for the biased political viewpoints without hardly any push back. Did PED not know that his behind paywall forum was open and just recently saw the error and closed it up again? I doubt it. He comes here sometimes. Years ago he asked about posting my comment about thinking Apple was going too far with their fancy stage setup at the campus, where I basically said Apple needed to be careful about spending crazily on stuff that didn't really need it, just because they were raking in the dough. Of course the commenters there said a bunch of crap, and not being a member there I couldn't respond. Nice. We've seen even big places like TMF try different models over the years. And here, we've seen utilization go down over the years, but also a move to most of our viewers being "guests". I think that is mostly from Safari on the iPhone being pretty aggressive at logging out a user from pro boards (looks like 24-36 hrs), whereas Safari on a Mac never does. But if someone is just wanting to read, and doesn't want to post something or care about something in the Dungeon, then on this site we have it set up to not really matter. PED's is interesting that he is creating the aggregation and initial side comments. The only real value added part of signing up is getting to comment, AFAIK. So if I don't care about commenting, why bother signing up? We have a local snow forecaster, on OpenSnow, that does a great job. It started as a hobby, but has grown. He puts a lot of time into it, but it's tough to monetize it. Ads weren't doing it, so he added a subscription, first just as an option. Then he tried other things like letting guests only see so many posts per week. Now you have to subscribe, which seems good, but can also cut off getting new people interested. To me, the most sense for a lot of these places is to time shift it. Let only your subscribers see things right away, but open it up to everyone after hours to a day. For investors, and skiers searching for powder, time matters a lot. If they find value, they will pay. PED's stuff is already reprints from elsewhere, but given how many reposts or links we se here, there is real value in it. Personally I would look at time shifting things by 12 hours or so, though even 2-4 in an investment day would be huge. For non-traders that don't want to instantly know about things or about what is causing a blip, a 2-4 hour delay might not seem bad. OTOH, while I'm sure it depends on the person, most these days want to know why something is happening, at least on big things like a power outage or an accident or a fire. Live news sells, even if there is nothing new to report. Each site is a little different. I imagine that if we needed some income through subscribers here, that would be the way to go. Though I'm sure we could come up with some creative ways too, like charging a hefty sin tax for the 6 posters that would want to post political stuff in the Dungeon.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 20, 2023 10:26:33 GMT -8
Not sure if my memory is correct, but I seem to remember that PED started off with a time shift model?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 20, 2023 16:32:01 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2023 22:09:31 GMT -8
That's the beauty of subscriptions. Once you have a good stream, you can just stop caring about anything else. Especially if there is occasional pushback from somewhere else, like the analyst he always has to blank out. Since84 did a better job of trying to connect with past posters and maybe make some new connections too. I don't even check how easy it is to find this place on a Google search. Or if you take TMF's latest article to mean anything (expecting MS to pass Apple and hit a $5T market cap in 25 years, partially by taking their search from a 3% marketshare to a 25% marketshare. Heck, why not go with 120% at that point!!!), we should be checking how easy it is to find this site with Bing too. It was fun to watch an episode of "the build show" work with a builder named Scott back in August, and have him say he didn't have a social presence. But now, on a followup 8 months later, he's on instagram and such. FWIW, while I'm not looking to pick up a place just outside of Austin, TX, it turns out the house just went on the market and looks pretty good. I'd buy it if in the area. And that's the power of "social", broadening your audience, which seems especially helpful for someone building a house every other month or whatnot. The two women helping out a non-profit with marketing and "social" talk in some terms I just don't normally hear. But understanding there is stuff I just don't know (or currently care about) is important. Our new membership in the last year is limited, especially if you don't count the spammers. We recently had 2 people from Canada join, and we had one other maybe 6 months ago. That might be it. Growth isn't currently our strongpoint. Luckily we don't have to send out a shareholder meeting. PED's got to be winding down things at some point, or at least focusing on other things. I'd think one way to do that would be to go private. But it could be something else, like getting bugged by people reading for free.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Mar 21, 2023 2:50:46 GMT -8
This discussion brings up some questions that I ask myself often. What purpose does this forum serve? Why would anyone even want to join it, even for free? Basically, what does this discussion board have to offer? I try to visualize a group of people that get together each day at a coffee shop that have the same interest, Apple and AAPL, and discuss everything that may have an influence on the direction of the company, either positively or negatively. And the people passing by our table and overhearing our discussion, would they want to pull up a chair and to join in? The world is rapidly changing and people are looking for some clues about the future. Can this board offer any of those clues?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Mar 21, 2023 8:58:35 GMT -8
This discussion brings up some questions that I ask myself often. What purpose does this forum serve? Why would anyone even want to join it, even for free? Basically, what does this discussion board have to offer? I try to visualize a group of people that get together each day at a coffee shop that have the same interest, Apple and AAPL, and discuss everything that may have an influence on the direction of the company, either positively or negatively. And the people passing by our table and overhearing our discussion, would they want to pull up a chair and to join in? The world is rapidly changing and people are looking for some clues about the future. Can this board offer any of those clues? Periodically there's some good macroeconomic discussion here. Also, some people just like sitting in a "coffee shop" discussing common interests. 😁 In general, it's difficult to enter a long established group of people. It is extremely difficult in real-life, but still difficult online as well.
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Post by macster on Mar 21, 2023 11:08:31 GMT -8
I’m reading articles and comments on PED except for the first most recent post.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 21, 2023 11:44:07 GMT -8
I’m reading articles and comments on PED except for the first most recent post. Well, maybe he does have it time limited, or a limit per device, or something. I'm seeing them too, but I don't go there too often since I normally have already read the linked story elsewhere. The April 1st, 2024 share price guess seems pretty fun, especially if people are actually trying to win and so putting in a probable guess rather than a hopeful guess. Looks like a cluster at around $200 right now. Maybe we'll have to do the same thing here. But we can take it a step further, giving a free annual membership to every person who enters, not just to the winner
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