Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Mar 20, 2023 1:41:50 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Mar 20, 2023 2:18:47 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 20, 2023 8:39:58 GMT -8
Apple AAPL 155.00 Apple makes smartphones, tablets, PCs, software, and peripherals, including Mac desktop and mobile PCs, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, consumer products like AirPods, Beats headphones, and Apple TV. Services include App Store, iTunes, iCloud, and Apple TV+. AAPL, a former market leader, has gone sideways over the past couple of years. The stock last peaked at an all-time high (ATH) of $180 at the start of 2022. Since then, the shares have been volatile, falling to $129 in June, running up to $174 in August, and dropping back down to $125 early this year. For more than five months, AAPL has traced out a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern and needs to break above $157 with some force to complete the formation. Based on the size of the H&S, the stock could see a measured move back to or above $180, or the ATHs from early 2022. Chart and moving-average support are at $144 and we would put a stop-loss just below there. We would take profits at $174, with larger long-term gains possible. research.ameritrade.com/wwws/common/reports/report.asp?YYY600_AbdaiGNddbX7V765fRnI/e4izheW8lmtf+fJV2yHYKcW9dj76URxZ2S1cJgcD86KwmdrrK3WxuuIFuRVU8KqqbB+ysKNA1hRcjr4zFKb+PgJIHBdtI0rupL03rYvbpcsk/MurO7fwEE=&a=a
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Post by duckpins on Mar 20, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -8
Interesting looks like the Bank stocks peaked Jan 1st or second like the techs last year. Schwab went from 86 to 45 now back up to 60. Buying Berkshire you get Apple and some banks plus a few oil companies. Might be the way to go. But American Express looks good too. It will be interesting to see how the bank crash goes. Seems bankers like to collect bonds. After a 4 or 5 percent raise in the government rates, these bonds are declining in value with increasing speed. The FED is now returning to QE for the banks, buying back bad bonds at Par, And then they are selling bonds with the other hand. I think the FED has created an untenable position for itself. Biden should kick ass and blame them before he gets blamed. Not a political statement just financial reality. Someone will be blamed.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2023 12:54:57 GMT -8
Interesting looks like the Bank stocks peaked Jan 1st or second like the techs last year. Schwab went from 86 to 45 now back up to 60. Buying Berkshire you get Apple and some banks plus a few oil companies. Might be the way to go. But American Express looks good too. It will be interesting to see how the bank crash goes. Seems bankers like to collect bonds. After a 4 or 5 percent raise in the government rates, these bonds are declining in value with increasing speed. The FED is now returning to QE for the banks, buying back bad bonds at Par, And then they are selling bonds with the other hand. I think the FED has created an untenable position for itself. Biden should kick ass and blame them before he gets blamed. Not a political statement just financial reality. Someone will be blamed. Or the lightweight way to do it is for all accounts being covered, but then give a timeline to ratchet up the insurance premiums (assume the FDIC charges something) based on the cash reserves and investment risk. Ideally, the riskier purchased bonds have only "lost" money on a paper basis in the mid-term. If held until maturity, they will work out, just as housing held longer term thru the crash, or for that matter AAPL held longer term thru a crash. If you're not forced out at the bottom when artificially low, it all works out. It's not great that the bank put money into things that varied so much in value in the shorter term. But if they are solid, it will work out. That's why someone would want to buy Credit Suisse, because they could get it for a discount now or somehow otherwise get good terms, and in the longer run (and with plenty of reserves of a bigger bank) it all works out. OTOH, if they had really went off the rails and had bonds in companies that went bankrupt by enough that getting money back in full is unlikely, that would be a whole different scenario. But that's back with Junk Bonds, rerating, and a risk scenario that a top bank in the country (SVB was 16th by size in the US recently) wouldn't knowingly have, as that is a situation where they might just let the bank fail, and going to jail would be likely. I don't see the FED suddenly dramatically changing its plans due to this. But it should tilt the scales a little, giving some reasons to back off a little sooner, if all other things are equal. While i'd like to see the Fed stay flat, and even say that they will for a few months while they look at new data coming in, I think we still have another session until that might possibly happen. I'm expecting another quarter this time. The end is closer than the beginning. But we're not there yet.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 20, 2023 14:24:07 GMT -8
Anyone been keeping up with volume on options lately?
It looks like a strangely large volume number today for the weekly 157.5 and 160 calls, without much of an uptick on puts, or next weeks, or April monthlies. I'm wondering if this is a bet on the FED and banks, put thru AAPL (and possibly other higher volume stocks) for a marketwide move without dealing with options on an index.
Just a guess.
I just happened to click on the options tab, after looking at the historical data at Yahoo. AAPL has had daily trading volume at or above the average volume now for the past 6 days. Volume seems to be on the uptick.
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