Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Mar 24, 2023 13:20:05 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Mar 25, 2023 1:01:04 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Mar 25, 2023 1:07:03 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Mar 25, 2023 5:45:30 GMT -8
I am returning to Scuba Diving after a long break. This has me interested in the Ultra Watch, so will be getting one today. Read a bunch of reviews and the Scuba+ App sounds like a real advancement in User Interface design for Dive Computers. Never thought I would be interested in the Ultra, but here I am.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Mar 25, 2023 6:41:39 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Mar 25, 2023 6:45:54 GMT -8
From what I can tell, we did hold $160?
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Mar 25, 2023 7:12:21 GMT -8
From what I can tell, we did hold $160? Yes, I just forgot to refresh the graph; apologies.
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Post by hrace on Mar 25, 2023 7:37:13 GMT -8
Never thought I would be interested in the Ultra, but here I am. Please keep us posted how you like it. Will you wear it daily as well, or only for diving? Maybe TBD.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 25, 2023 7:51:43 GMT -8
Kind of TBD. I am keeping my Series 7 for now, in case the size is too much in some situations. But for outdoor walks, cycling, and so-on, I will be using the Ultra. I think the extra screen brightness will be a big deal in those settings. It will be getting a lot of use.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 25, 2023 9:33:06 GMT -8
For those who might find it worthwhile, I'm again posting the recovery chart, as of market close on 03/24/23. Also enclosing the supporting table to allow easy visibility for loss/gain over previous week. I'm hoping the all green for the six stocks over the last 2 weeks isn't another head fake...but who knows? I'm encouraged with AAPL's recovery, and three of the other stocks at least have a positive slope...however, AMZN looks *almost* flat and NFLX appears to be going in entirely the wrong direction.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 25, 2023 14:41:20 GMT -8
For those who might find it worthwhile, I'm again posting the recovery chart, as of market close on 03/24/23. Also enclosing the supporting table to allow easy visibility for loss/gain over previous week. I'm hoping the all green for the six stocks over the last 2 weeks isn't another head fake...but who knows? I'm encouraged with AAPL's recovery, and three of the other stocks at least have a positive slope...however, AMZN looks *almost* flat and NFLX appears to be going in entirely the wrong direction. Thanks Lucky. It's great to see our stock improving. Soon, We'll have a full recovery of the miserable 2022, and then we're on towards new ATHs
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Post by macster on Mar 26, 2023 4:48:20 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Mar 26, 2023 11:09:22 GMT -8
I truly wish him and his website the very best of luck.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 26, 2023 13:18:04 GMT -8
I have been playing with a options strategy that I would like to bounce off the board. I am using Bollinger Bands with a 3 sigma and a 21 day period to establish upper and lower bounds. I sell put options 3 weeks out with a strike price at the lower number and calls 3 weeks out at the higher number. There is a 99.7% chance that the price will stay between the upper and lower bounds and I harvest the premiums. This has produced about $100K since Feb 3 and seems too good to be true. I realize that a black swan could wreak the whole thing, but I don't mind paying the capital gains if I get called away or owning the stock if I have to buy on margin. I plan to repeat this every three weeks, avoiding major events and predictable volatility. It you see a flaw, let me know please. If you like it, feel free to follow at your own risk. If this is something that everyone except me already knows about, well I guess I can stand to hear that too. Thanks for thinking about this.
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mark
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Post by mark on Mar 26, 2023 16:23:09 GMT -8
I have been playing with a options strategy that I would like to bounce off the board. I am using Bollinger Bands with a 3 sigma and a 21 day period to establish upper and lower bounds. I sell put options 3 weeks out with a strike price at the lower number and calls 3 weeks out at the higher number. There is a 99.7% chance that the price will stay between the upper and lower bounds and I harvest the premiums. This has produced about $100K since Feb 3 and seems too good to be true. I realize that a black swan could wreak the whole thing, but I don't mind paying the capital gains if I get called away or owning the stock if I have to buy on margin. I plan to repeat this every three weeks, avoiding major events and predictable volatility. It you see a flaw, let me know please. If you like it, feel free to follow at your own risk. If this is something that everyone except me already knows about, well I guess I can stand to hear that too. Thanks for thinking about this. No flaws at all. It's nice to find two people every three weeks that are willing to give you free money.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 26, 2023 16:39:04 GMT -8
I have been playing with a options strategy that I would like to bounce off the board. I am using Bollinger Bands with a 3 sigma and a 21 day period to establish upper and lower bounds. I sell put options 3 weeks out with a strike price at the lower number and calls 3 weeks out at the higher number. There is a 99.7% chance that the price will stay between the upper and lower bounds and I harvest the premiums. This has produced about $100K since Feb 3 and seems too good to be true. I realize that a black swan could wreak the whole thing, but I don't mind paying the capital gains if I get called away or owning the stock if I have to buy on margin. I plan to repeat this every three weeks, avoiding major events and predictable volatility. It you see a flaw, let me know please. If you like it, feel free to follow at your own risk. If this is something that everyone except me already knows about, well I guess I can stand to hear that too. Thanks for thinking about this. No flaws at all. It's nice to find two people every three weeks that are willing to give you free money. I guess just remember that it isn't entirely risk free. The bounds seem decent, but make sure that you really are willing to sell or buy, if required to do so. So don't get too cocky and go bigger and bigger, because at some point you will have to buy or sell. Also remember that in times of less volatility, pricing will shrink. And figure out if you care if things are in the red. When I bought some BP long ago my plan was to sell covered calls against it, repeatedly. Even though I bought it at a good discount, the pricing went down further, and it was less exciting to sell covered calls that would end up in the red (let's say bought at 45, stock at 30, covered calls at 35). Luckily that isn't a problem for the most part with AAPL, but the principle is the same, even if you might have a gain either way. There are lots of ways to make money. But consistency, no matter what plan you make, is an important one. It looks like you are good on that, but I'm just putting it out there since it is a potential pitfall for you, or for someone trying to sorta follow your plan. EDIT (back around 2008 we opened a mortgage on a house we had bought in cash, and used the money for a separate account with a covered call strategy. Initially it was with a group of stocks, but AAPL did so well... No pitfalls were hit, though I think we closed out the account when we bought our next house, and closed out the mortgage at some point. AAPL's huge success has made it unimportant to keep up with the relatively small stuff, but I believe it worked out positively even if I don't have an exact figure.) (the other thing is that there might be times to skip your system, and go big. While I wrote some AAPL 1000/250 covered calls at the peak of ~500/125, I wish I had went full in. I made huge money on that, and was completely willing to sell off my stock if the huge annualized percentiles were hit, which I think was around a 50% annualized return. I wrote ones for 10-20% of my portfolio, but if doing it again I would have no problem writing them for 100% of my shares. There are times where the market is crazy. That happened to be one of them. I saw it at that moment, a completely misplaced option environment even with a stock price that in retrospect was at its peak (~August 31st, 2000). I doubt hitting the top so well will ever happen again, so there's that. But if it does seem obvious, or pricing is just so screwy, be willing to go big if ready to face the "consequences" if the trade goes against you (in this case it would have been having our portfolio up over 100% in 1.5 years, so the "bad" wasn't so bad))
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Mar 26, 2023 17:04:59 GMT -8
"Bollinger Bands with a 3 sigma and a 21 day period to establish upper and lower bounds. I sell put options 3 weeks out with a strike price at the lower number and calls 3 weeks out at the higher number." If I am looking at it correctly, right now that looks like ~165 on the upper bound and ~139 on the lower bound. Three weeks out would be the 4/14/23 options, the 165 call will get you about $1.90 and the 139 put will get you $0.31 (it's thinly traded, so you'd be better off with the 140 put at $0.35). Looking at these, the put seems relatively safe, even a 15% crash over the 3 weeks won't put it into the money. But the call is ridiculously unsafe, a $5 pop (~3%) could easily happen over 3 weeks, and those calls would be in the money pronto. By the way, when a call is exercised against you ("assigned"), I highly recommend NOT using shares that you already own with a capital gain on them. Instead, just buy some new shares, deliver them, and take the small loss. Yahoo chart with Bollinger Bands - finance.yahoo.com/chart/AAPL/#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.KAjCAoMjEsQywzLG1hLHkpIjp7InR5cGUiOiJCb2xsaW5nZXIgQmFuZHMiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMjEiLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiU3RhbmRhcmQgRGV2aWF0aW9ucyI6IjMiLCJNb3ZpbmcgQXZlcmFnZSBUeXBlIjoic2ltcGxlIiwiQ2hhbm5lbCBGaWxsIjp0cnVlLCJpZCI6IuKAjEJvbGxpbmdlciBCYW5kc.KAjCAoMjEsQywzLG1hLHkpIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6IuKAjEJvbGxpbmdlciBCYW5kc.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--
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Mar 27, 2023 3:29:24 GMT -8
Thank you Mark and 4aapl for your thoughtful comments. I chose the Bollinger Bands because, when they were based on 3 sigma, it appears that the shock price stayed within the bands over a two year period. I am a little uncomfortable with the idea of making my bets based solely on historical data. Both the moving average and the standard deviation of the bands are based on the past data. There is a saying that Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get slaughtered and this seems a little too easy. I think it might be safer to base the upper and lower bounds on the volatility cone with a +-2 sigma spread. From what I can tell, the volatility cone is based on a broader set of assumptions and simulations. That would still provide a 95% probability that the options would expire unused.
Thank you also for the cautionary reminders. I had all my Apple holding called away and rebuilding the position was not fun ( well, it kinda was, sorta). But the tax bill was definitely not enjoyable.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 27, 2023 9:46:50 GMT -8
Thank you Mark and 4aapl for your thoughtful comments. I chose the Bollinger Bands because, when they were based on 3 sigma, it appears that the shock price stayed within the bands over a two year period. I am a little uncomfortable with the idea of making my bets based solely on historical data. Both the moving average and the standard deviation of the bands are based on the past data. There is a saying that Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get slaughtered and this seems a little too easy. I think it might be safer to base the upper and lower bounds on the volatility cone with a +-2 sigma spread. From what I can tell, the volatility cone is based on a broader set of assumptions and simulations. That would still provide a 95% probability that the options would expire unused. Thank you also for the cautionary reminders. I had all my Apple holding called away and rebuilding the position was not fun ( well, it kinda was, sorta). But the tax bill was definitely not enjoyable. Another way to do the same sort of thing is to just decide a level that you would be willing to buy or sell. Maybe that's 8% or 10% or 19% or whatever from the current level. And it doesn't have to be the same in each direction. But you have to be willing to buy or sell. My "guy" at TD said some people were making money that way, on weeklies, and it seemed like a good way to juice some extra cashflow. This was a couple years back, so I tried it on a small chunk of shares, getting my 40 cents or whatever. And sure enough, the stock climbed the 4-6 points that week, and come Friday they were in the money. Technically I wanted to sell some shares and so all was good. But... In general, while some of the potential methods I've thought about make sense, for most shorter term plays I can also find reasons not to. Picking 8% up or down, 3 weeks out. The premiums probably aren't that much. And so then it comes down to thinking about what would cause AAPL to go up or down that 8% in 3 weeks. If something terrible happened to Apple or the market, enough to make the stock drop at least 8% in 3 weeks, would it be bad enough to make the stock fall even more? On the flip side, if something caused AAPL to take off, gaining at least 8% in 3 weeks, is it something that would make the stock go up even more in that time period? And is the small money I would get be worth it? I think it might be, as long as you did it consistently. Right now the risk might be higher that AAPL goes up or down a bunch in a shorter time period. But the tradeoff is bigger premiums. Like I said, when I experimented with this, back around 2009-2010, I opened a separate account. That helped me not grow things too much without thought on it, understanding that otherwise I could say the likes of "It worked well writing covered calls for 10% of my shares, so let's try it on 50% of them this time". That said, if you write out a plan and follow it, that could work too. I have a notebook I write things down in, especially current thoughts and reasoning, along with pricing. I used it a lot more when buying and selling options. These days, I tend to write pricing and stats on AAPL, but often only every week or even every month. But for occasional things like covered calls, and looking at various strikes and timeframes, I normally do some annualized calculations, since I can normally justify strikes at something like +10% and 20% annualized, or +15% and 30% annualized if the stock is closer to a bottom. Though when only dealing with longer term covered calls, it works out best to sell them when the stock is closer to the top, if you can. You know all of this, as do most people here. But it's worth repeating. There are lots of ways to make a little extra with your AAPL holdings. I think the most important thing is just not taking on too much risk (that whole "pigs get slaughtered"), and being consistent. And that means that if you decide on something, understand the head games with it and how you are going to deal with that (ie my problem with something that can cause an 8% drop likely to cause a 15-20% drop). And I'd suggest writing things down, so you can refer to your past thoughts, sticking with them or improving them.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 27, 2023 10:42:16 GMT -8
I truly wish him and his website the very best of luck. That's always the hard thing, changing something from being (or seeming) free, to having a cost. My personal interpretation is that TMF never recovered from the move, whereas timeshifting or limiting how much you could see likely would have worked better. And that's with a lot more users, while doling out freebees to the top people they wanted to keep (but often didn't). Overall I don't think this is the best move for PED 3.0, but it all depends on his goals. Similar to a 1-person company choosing to stay a one man show, add a few employees, or even migrate to a big company that goes public. 2 guys in a garage has some good reasoning. Or staying singular, having no boss and also no one to manage. Not everyone has the same goals. I wish him and the site the best of luck.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 27, 2023 12:50:07 GMT -8
I truly wish him and his website the very best of luck. That's always the hard thing, changing something from being (or seeming) free, to having a cost. My personal interpretation is that TMF never recovered from the move, whereas timeshifting or limiting how much you could see likely would have worked better. And that's with a lot more users, while doling out freebees to the top people they wanted to keep (but often didn't). Overall I don't think this is the best move for PED 3.0, but it all depends on his goals. Similar to a 1-person company choosing to stay a one man show, add a few employees, or even migrate to a big company that goes public. 2 guys in a garage has some good reasoning. Or staying singular, having no boss and also no one to manage. Not everyone has the same goals. I wish him and the site the best of luck. I will miss the thoughtful comments. Maybe some of those people will re-join us
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Mar 27, 2023 18:43:49 GMT -8
I think the most important thing is just not taking on too much risk This is why I like spreads so much. You can select your risk, and associated potential return, to be almost anything at all. Let's say bull call spreads (say June '23 for example), you can choose a 100-120 (or similar), low risk, but only 3-4% potential return. And you can choose a 160-180 (or similar), high risk, with a potential 185% return. And you can choose anything in between, and any combination that pleases you.
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