Dave
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Post by Dave on Mar 31, 2023 13:12:19 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 31, 2023 20:49:48 GMT -8
For some reason it felt like an even better week than "just" a +2.81%.
Looks like Monday was down, and Tuesday was down just a tiny amount. So maybe it was just remembering the last 3 days, all in the green.
No matter. It felt good, and it looks like AAPL has strung a few of these together. Hopefully that can continue for a bit.
WWDC is out there a bit, and so is the likely dividend increase, and earnings. Should be near the end of the month. Which also means prime rumor tossing season, during Apple's quiet period pre-earnings.
Fun times.
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 31, 2023 22:08:23 GMT -8
Another good week...I'm sure we could get used to that very easily. However, I'm not comfortable that we won't see future pullbacks in the AAPL share price. Note in the recovery chart that AAPL has recovered to 90.6% of its share price back on 01/03/22. AMZN's trend line is still fairly flat at 60.6% recovered and NFLX's trend line is still heading in the wrong direction. Note in the table that all 6 stocks show green for the last 3 weeks...so perhaps that's a hopeful indication that things may be improving in the market. It's the only 3 week period this year where all 6 stocks have been green.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 1, 2023 5:08:23 GMT -8
WWDC is out there a bit, and so is the likely dividend increase, and earnings. Should be near the end of the month. Which also means prime rumor tossing season, during Apple's quiet period pre-earnings. Fun times. AAPL's RSI is just under 70 (Over bought). We could see a bit of a pull back here. Hopefully not too deep.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Apr 1, 2023 5:53:07 GMT -8
WWDC is out there a bit, and so is the likely dividend increase, and earnings. Should be near the end of the month. Which also means prime rumor tossing season, during Apple's quiet period pre-earnings. Fun times. AAPL's RSI is just under 70 (Over bought). We could see a bit of a pull back here. Hopefully not too deep. Also see a nice looking uptrend on the chart beginning March 3rd. Hopefully it'll continue.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Apr 1, 2023 6:24:51 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Apr 1, 2023 8:02:02 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Apr 1, 2023 10:10:00 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 1, 2023 12:28:15 GMT -8
WWDC is out there a bit, and so is the likely dividend increase, and earnings. Should be near the end of the month. Which also means prime rumor tossing season, during Apple's quiet period pre-earnings. Fun times. AAPL's RSI is just under 70 (Over bought). We could see a bit of a pull back here. Hopefully not too deep. But it's still below 70. With AAPL, the 70 level has been somewhat important, but often it can stay in the 70's for a while, and even touch on up to 80 and above. Other times, instead of a pull back it can just stay flat to dip the RSI back under 70. Each time is a little different. Looks like the nasdaq and s&p are only around 60, so there's upside before they hit 70. But I agree with you and Lucky, seems the odds are that AAPL won't continue rocketing up every week, even if it is a pleasant experience. This might not be the end of the immediate upside, but there will be a flat or down week at some point.
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 1, 2023 15:51:56 GMT -8
I agree...it's not good. But Apple has done so much to let a person know there is an Air Tag traveling with them. When my wife and I had Air Tags attached to our camera bags on our last trip, it seemed that I was constantly being reminded of that fact. Certainly, if we hadn't been responsible for attaching the tags we would have been sufficiently warned. I expect that if anything is done to modify or cancel Air Tags, it would be done by Apple, not the Texas or U.S. Legislature. The tragedy in Texas last year didn't result in any banning by state or federal government...so, if the shooting of 19 students and two teachers didn't result in legislative action, I can't imagine that this killing of a truck thief would be treated differently. BWDIK
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ono
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Post by ono on Apr 1, 2023 16:42:08 GMT -8
Another good week...I'm sure we could get used to that very easily. However, I'm not comfortable that we won't see future pullbacks in the AAPL share price. Note in the recovery chart that AAPL has recovered to 90.6% of its share price back on 01/03/22. AMZN's trend line is still fairly flat at 60.6% recovered and NFLX's trend line is still heading in the wrong direction. View AttachmentGreat chart, thank you. Could you add MSFT?
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 1, 2023 19:48:20 GMT -8
Another good week...I'm sure we could get used to that very easily. However, I'm not comfortable that we won't see future pullbacks in the AAPL share price. Note in the recovery chart that AAPL has recovered to 90.6% of its share price back on 01/03/22. AMZN's trend line is still fairly flat at 60.6% recovered and NFLX's trend line is still heading in the wrong direction. View AttachmentGreat chart, thank you. Could you add MSFT? Hi Ono! I added MSFT as you requested...the chart was looking a little crowded before, now even more so, unfortunately. :-) I rechecked the figures but still may have overlooked something. Please let me know if you see anything that doesn't look quite right. MSFT looks to be doing really well on its recovery...not quite as good as AAPL but a damn close second. You can see that MSFT has had 4 red weeks...not as good as AAPL or TSLA...but not as bad as NFLX or AMZN.
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 2, 2023 10:44:05 GMT -8
WWDC is out there a bit, and so is the likely dividend increase, and earnings. Should be near the end of the month. Which also means prime rumor tossing season, during Apple's quiet period pre-earnings. Fun times. So what do we think the new dividend will be? I'm guessing 0.245 (if they are willing to go to a half cent again), otherwise likely 0.24, and a small chance of 0.25. This trend of Air Tags leading to violence is not good. More media BS. Something happens 3 or 4 times across a user base of a billion or two, and they call it a "trend".
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Apr 2, 2023 11:51:29 GMT -8
WWDC is out there a bit, and so is the likely dividend increase, and earnings. Should be near the end of the month. Which also means prime rumor tossing season, during Apple's quiet period pre-earnings. Fun times. So what do we think the new dividend will be? I'm guessing 0.245 (if they are willing to go to a half cent again), otherwise likely 0.24, and a small chance of 0.25. This trend of Air Tags leading to violence is not good. More media BS. Something happens 3 or 4 times across a user base of a billion or two, and they call it a "trend". I don’t disagree with you, but having it happen a few times close together, particularly with violence involved, accentuates the effect. My complaint is mostly about the evil do’ers who devalue a valuable tool for their own self-amusement.
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 2, 2023 12:09:14 GMT -8
So what do we think the new dividend will be? I'm guessing 0.245 (if they are willing to go to a half cent again), otherwise likely 0.24, and a small chance of 0.25. More media BS. Something happens 3 or 4 times across a user base of a billion or two, and they call it a "trend". I don’t disagree with you, but having it happen a few times close together, particularly with violence involved, accentuates the effect. My complaint is mostly about the evil do’ers who devalue a valuable tool for their own self-amusement. It's also absurd that of the two additional examples they give of "violence", one of them is about THE POLICE using an airtag to track down a stolen vehicle that ended up being wrecked! Are they also suggesting that law enforcement shouldn't use tools to track down stolen vehicles because it may lead to violence/wrecks? "In February, AirTag helped police track down a stolen car in North Carolina, but the chase resulted in the vehicle being wrecked."
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 2, 2023 14:14:31 GMT -8
So what do we think the new dividend will be? I'm guessing 0.245 (if they are willing to go to a half cent again), otherwise likely 0.24, and a small chance of 0.25. I guess this is one of those times of a difference between what you want to see, and what is likely to happen. Upping to an even $1/yr would be an 8.7% increase, well within a reasonable amount, and what Apple has sometimes done. 2 years ago, it was a 7.3% increase, when going from 20.5 to 22. But then last year's increase, 22 cents up to 23 cents per quarter, was just 4.5%. With Apple being cautious, trying to make some cutbacks while not have any big layoffs, I can see justification for staying light and only going up a penny, if for nothing else than looking like they are being careful. So while I'd like to see an increase to 25 cents a quarter, and really think Apple should, I'd expect Apple go stay light. I'd guess at a 80% probability of 24 cents, a 15% chance of 24.5 cents, and still a possibility with a 5% chance of 25 cents. A year from now, if things seem solid and the economy seems to be moving on up, maybe then Apple will go with a 8-10% increase. It is a strange duck with a sub-1% dividend, significantly lower than QQQ, about a third of SPY, and getting close to half of MSFT. But that's for Apple to decide, of what the point of the dividend really is, and how much they want to increase it. I'd expect they are eyeing the very long term, of being a dividend aristocrat by increasing it for 25 years. Looks like we are at 10 years now, though it's interesting that data varies. www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/dividend-yield-history says since fall of 2012, but www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/dividend-history matches my notes of Feb 2013. Strange, but I see a few inconsistencies on macro trends.net AAPL data. The employee count doesn't look right going back 15 years, and the Gross Margins data doesn't match what I have written down from Apple's earnings calls, both now and a decade ago. Maybe they are doing some adjustments due to something, or other things like problems with Apple's quarter cycle, but I wouldn't trust it without knowing all the details. Odd. But that is the thing, do you just take the first google hit, without thinking about it too much. Hmmmm Anyways, I'd put the odds on 24 cents per share per quarter. There's a non-zero possibility of something else, and I'd be happy to be pleasantly surprised by a larger raise. But 24 seems likely.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 2, 2023 15:11:00 GMT -8
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Apr 3, 2023 1:41:44 GMT -8
So what do we think the new dividend will be? I'm guessing 0.245 (if they are willing to go to a half cent again), otherwise likely 0.24, and a small chance of 0.25. I guess this is one of those times of a difference between what you want to see, and what is likely to happen. Upping to an even $1/yr would be an 8.7% increase, well within a reasonable amount, and what Apple has sometimes done. 2 years ago, it was a 7.3% increase, when going from 20.5 to 22. But then last year's increase, 22 cents up to 23 cents per quarter, was just 4.5%. With Apple being cautious, trying to make some cutbacks while not have any big layoffs, I can see justification for staying light and only going up a penny, if for nothing else than looking like they are being careful. So while I'd like to see an increase to 25 cents a quarter, and really think Apple should, I'd expect Apple go stay light. I'd guess at a 80% probability of 24 cents, a 15% chance of 24.5 cents, and still a possibility with a 5% chance of 25 cents. A year from now, if things seem solid and the economy seems to be moving on up, maybe then Apple will go with a 8-10% increase. It is a strange duck with a sub-1% dividend, significantly lower than QQQ, about a third of SPY, and getting close to half of MSFT. But that's for Apple to decide, of what the point of the dividend really is, and how much they want to increase it. I'd expect they are eyeing the very long term, of being a dividend aristocrat by increasing it for 25 years. Looks like we are at 10 years now, though it's interesting that data varies. www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/dividend-yield-history says since fall of 2012, but www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/dividend-history matches my notes of Feb 2013. Strange, but I see a few inconsistencies on macro trends.net AAPL data. The employee count doesn't look right going back 15 years, and the Gross Margins data doesn't match what I have written down from Apple's earnings calls, both now and a decade ago. Maybe they are doing some adjustments due to something, or other things like problems with Apple's quarter cycle, but I wouldn't trust it without knowing all the details. Odd. But that is the thing, do you just take the first google hit, without thinking about it too much. Hmmmm Anyways, I'd put the odds on 24 cents per share per quarter. There's a non-zero possibility of something else, and I'd be happy to be pleasantly surprised by a larger raise. But 24 seems likely. But has anyone factored in the cost of inflation? It would be nice if the dividend were to at least increase with the cost of living.
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mark
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Post by mark on May 4, 2023 12:58:02 GMT -8
WWDC is out there a bit, and so is the likely dividend increase, and earnings. Should be near the end of the month. Which also means prime rumor tossing season, during Apple's quiet period pre-earnings. Fun times. So what do we think the new dividend will be? I'm guessing 0.245 (if they are willing to go to a half cent again), otherwise likely 0.24, and a small chance of 0.25. 24 cents it is ....
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 4, 2023 13:17:35 GMT -8
So what do we think the new dividend will be? I'm guessing 0.245 (if they are willing to go to a half cent again), otherwise likely 0.24, and a small chance of 0.25. 24 cents it is .... Even though I would have liked for them to go bigger, it looks like we got what I expected a month ago (typo and all):
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mark
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Post by mark on May 5, 2023 6:41:09 GMT -8
Even though I would have liked for them to go bigger, it looks like we got what I expected a month ago (typo and all): Yep, I was mostly sure of 24 cents, I didn't think they really want to go to a half cent increment (24.5). And 25 cents would be a big increase in one shot. And now, after the fact, I thought of yet another reason they might have wanted to choose 24 cents ... because it's an even number. Maybe they have rough plans to split the stock 2:1 when it exceeds $200 for some period of time. And that could potentially happen during the next year. So the split stock could have a 12 cent dividend, also a nice even number.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2023 7:47:38 GMT -8
Even though I would have liked for them to go bigger, it looks like we got what I expected a month ago (typo and all): Yep, I was mostly sure of 24 cents, I didn't think they really want to go to a half cent increment (24.5). And 25 cents would be a big increase in one shot. And now, after the fact, I thought of yet another reason they might have wanted to choose 24 cents ... because it's an even number. Maybe they have rough plans to split the stock 2:1 when it exceeds $200 for some period of time. And that could potentially happen during the next year. So the split stock could have a 12 cent dividend, also a nice even number. I doubt that is the driver, but it could be a small part of it. Apple is probably just looking at dividends and buybacks, and deciding which is better in the current environment. Sort of like pulling some from both a Roth and IRA, and getting to flex on how much you take from each. There's a variety of reasons. Offhand to me a $90B increase in the buybacks doesn't seem like much. But doing the math on the market cap, it works out to around 3.3%, which roughly matches the annualized rate from the past 2.5 years. I'm generally not a huge fan of splits, but there still is some good reasons out there. Not every place has switched to fractional shares yet. I am dealing with that now with a few Roths, with $2k to $6k each of available cash, and no borrowing. But Schwab has fractional shares, so when TD fully joins with them this shouldn't be an issue anymore for these accounts. I think Apple is just trying to keep nudging up the dividend to eventually become a dividend aristocrat, but looks at the really long term and doesn't want to push it too much now that it could cause a problem at some point, while also feeling that a buyback is better in this market. Personally I'd rather that the dividend was at least on the same level as the S&P index as a whole, and sometimes it feels like buybacks are throwing away money, as many are more tied to a historic share price and trend than a historic earnings ratio or market cap. This is especially the case when Apple could at any time decide to hand out move incentive stock or options, or use them for a large purchase, negating the current or even years of buybacks. But that's just optimization and wall of worry stuff. Apple has been conservative with its money, and there's no reason to expect a flip of a switch in that regard, nor really of their current preferences. If one was looking for a meaningful change in dividend percentage returns, they'd be better off looking elsewhere than hoping that Apple would suddenly triple or quadruple their dividend to get it into the S&P index range. So I'm just talking into the wind...
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mark
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Post by mark on May 7, 2023 7:58:30 GMT -8
I think Apple is just trying to keep nudging up the dividend to eventually become a dividend aristocrat, but looks at the really long term and doesn't want to push it too much now that it could cause a problem at some point, while also feeling that a buyback is better in this market. This is definitely true, and I completely agree with this sentiment. (Personally I would prefer no dividends at all and solely buyback, but I understand why some people like receiving regular dividends.)[/quote]
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Post by Luckychoices on May 7, 2023 10:02:37 GMT -8
Yep, I was mostly sure of 24 cents, I didn't think they really want to go to a half cent increment (24.5). And 25 cents would be a big increase in one shot. And now, after the fact, I thought of yet another reason they might have wanted to choose 24 cents ... because it's an even number. Maybe they have rough plans to split the stock 2:1 when it exceeds $200 for some period of time. And that could potentially happen during the next year. So the split stock could have a 12 cent dividend, also a nice even number. I'm generally not a huge fan of splits, but there still is some good reasons out there. I don't understand why you're not a fan. The first purchase for which my wife and I have a record is for is for 236 shares of AAPL, purchased on 12/22/00 for ~ $14.91/share...a total of $3,519.10. Due to the 3 splits since then, those 236 shares are now 13,215 share of AAPL. Without the splits, I'd still have 236 shares at, I believe, $9,719.92/share. If I've miscalculated, please let me know. Whether fractional shares were available or not, I'm guessing that fewer investors would be buying AAPL at $9,719.92/share...plus, I admit to very much enjoying having the cost basis of those original shares now equal to a split-adjusted $0.27/share. 😁 What's the reason that makes you *not* a fan of splits?
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 7, 2023 13:13:15 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2023 6:32:38 GMT -8
I'm generally not a huge fan of splits, but there still is some good reasons out there. I don't understand why you're not a fan. The first purchase for which my wife and I have a record is for is for 236 shares of AAPL, purchased on 12/22/00 for ~ $14.91/share...a total of $3,519.10. Due to the 3 splits since then, those 236 shares are now 13,215 share of AAPL. Without the splits, I'd still have 236 shares at, I believe, $9,719.92/share. If I've miscalculated, please let me know. Whether fractional shares were available or not, I'm guessing that fewer investors would be buying AAPL at $9,719.92/share...plus, I admit to very much enjoying having the cost basis of those original shares now equal to a split-adjusted $0.27/share. 😁 What's the reason that makes you *not* a fan of splits? The math seems right. My first purchase was similar, at $15 9/16, with Yahoo split adjusting it down to somewhere in the 12-15 cents range. Using 14, non-split would make it about $19,453 a share. Most stocks split when getting to high per-share pricing, giving shares at a more reasonable price for most investors. Some haven't, like Brk-A which is currently just shy of $500,000.00 a share. It's done pretty well, and Buffet is respected as a great investor.' But with fractional shares, there's no hard reason to split shares, and so it comes down to the learned psychological reasons that most things label as dumb newbie investor mistakes, of labeling a stock as cheap or expensive just based on the cost per share. And so a split is artificially trying to put a share price into that sweet spot we have made in our mind. There's a monetary cost to doing that. But by catering to this sweet spot mentality, we're playing into prioritizing the share price, over the things that actually matter of spending and earning and marketing and developing. So in concept I'd rather Apple, or other companies, spend the money and effort on things that matter and not try to manipulate a thing that really shouldn't matter much. And if fractional shares make it so that someone can put $1k into a company, even if the price per share is $500k, then it's not that people are losing potential investors except if we continue to push that the per-share price somehow matters.
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Post by incorrigible on May 8, 2023 7:14:08 GMT -8
If one wants to sell covered calls on a position, the split makes that easier to do so in some cases. Accumulating 100 shares of a $170 stock can be difficult for some retail investors.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2023 8:33:12 GMT -8
If one wants to sell covered calls on a position, the split makes that easier to do so in some cases. Accumulating 100 shares of a $170 stock can be difficult for some retail investors. Yep, that seems to be the only technical reason for it, part of why mini options were made at some point on at least some of the indexes I think. But that would be interesting, looking at Brk-A and Brk-B, and options on them. Along with if it mattered in some way. I'm not against share splitting, but a lot of excitement is made about them, whereas overall it really shouldn't matter. There does tend to be some correlation to positive performance there. Part is due to artificially getting investors excited, but part is due to the company normally only going it if they think things are going well and there is good outlook. Similar to directors buying shares or keeping all of their shares. It's a vote of confidence, by those that should know the most, in a way that investors can see. But there's a cost too. A quick google search doesn't pull up what the cost is. Wildly, I'd guess $5-$50 million for Apple to split shares. Even at the low end, they could instead have maybe 5 additional employees for 5 years. If like www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp you frame it as splitting a $50 bill out to 5 $10 bills, there's just not much point. With fractional shares, there are even fewer reasons. There are still some, especially if things get far out of the typical range, but by and large I'd rather Apple focus their time and resources into things that continue to make Apple great.
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Post by incorrigible on May 8, 2023 16:15:39 GMT -8
But that would be interesting, looking at Brk-A and Brk-B, and options on them. Along with if it mattered in some way. BRK.B shares split to accommodate the distribution of BRK shares for the BNSF purchase.
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