Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 24, 2023 1:42:34 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 24, 2023 4:20:46 GMT -8
Re-sharing from the weekend post. Upcoming earnings for the week. Monday: Coca Cola Tuesday: Microsoft, Alphabet Wednesday: Meta Thursday: Amazon, Intel
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 24, 2023 5:07:12 GMT -8
One problem with this kind of trade is that recently the bond market has seen periodic rapid movements, much more rapid than is usually expected in the generally staid bond market. So if they happen to be caught on the wrong side of the trade, with enough leverage, they could potentially suffer very heavy losses.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 24, 2023 5:29:49 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 24, 2023 5:29:53 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Apr 24, 2023 7:29:17 GMT -8
Yuck on an external battery, if that turns out to be true. How is a VR headset, with a battery hanging off it, supposed to be a practical fitness device? Makes no sense.
And Maps? Walking around in public with this class of device on your head? That also makes no sense.
Sure hope these early reports are wrong.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 24, 2023 7:58:51 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 24, 2023 8:11:00 GMT -8
Yuck on an external battery, if that turns out to be true. How is a VR headset, with a battery hanging off it, supposed to be a practical fitness device? Makes no sense. And Maps? Walking around in public with this class of device on your head? That also makes no sense. Sure hope these early reports are wrong. I'm sure it's that compromise, to get something out now vs lower power needs and more powerful batteries sometime in the future. FWIW, headlamps and battery powered pro devices have had to make this tradeoff. The low to mid level consumer products often have the battery with them, like my blinding headlamp with 2x 18650 batteries (each maybe the size and weight of 2-3 AA batteries). But step up a level, to a spelunking one, a high level biking one, or an industrial one, and you are putting a battery on the waist or back pocket. Same thing with an air blower. The consumer level ones normally still have the battery in the unit, but the pro ones go on up to having a battery backpack...not all too different from having a gas engine for the blower on your back. I guess that's the trade-off with lots of devices, like a central vac vs a standard vacuum. Or the paint air sprayer I used last night with its air generation in a base unit, vs the cheap paint air sprayer I have that basically has a hair dryer fan on the handheld unit. (FWIW it worked pretty well, and made it so I didn't have to fire up the air compressor and run a line) I can see taking all the weight you can off of the head unit. But I'm much more practical than worrying about if it is the most elegant solution, in the distant past preferring the compatibility of VGA and DVI to the "one less cord" of ADC video connectors. (EDIT: I guess I see this as an ergonomics issue as much as a feasibility issue. But it hasn't been that many years since 95%+ of the headphone market was corded to a iPod or iPhone in a pocket or pack.)
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 24, 2023 8:34:41 GMT -8
I can see taking all the weight you can off of the head unit. But I'm much more practical than worrying about if it is the most elegant solution, in the distant past preferring the compatibility of VGA and DVI to the " one less cord" of ADC video connectors. Who could ever forget the ADC cable and all of the unintended and limiting consequences of that “better idea”. That may have been one of the major things that killed the Mac as a gaming platform because the need for a special video card.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 24, 2023 10:02:15 GMT -8
165 can't hold forever, up or down?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 24, 2023 10:56:50 GMT -8
I can see taking all the weight you can off of the head unit. But I'm much more practical than worrying about if it is the most elegant solution, in the distant past preferring the compatibility of VGA and DVI to the " one less cord" of ADC video connectors. Who could ever forget the ADC cable and all of the unintended and limiting consequences of that “better idea”. That may have been one of the major things that killed the Mac as a gaming platform because the need for a special video card. That might be part of it, but Apple already wasn't really pushing the 3rd party video card thing. Back around year 2000, there was one supported 3dfx video card for the Mac, that came with drivers. It was much more expensive than the generic versions, but then it turned out you could get one of those other ones, for something like $50, and run the other driver. It worked, and it helped things like Unreal look amazing. I asked Steve about this at a shareholder meeting, of having a 3dfx card available as a build to order option, in what ended up being only months before 3dfx went under. I think he said they would look into it, but not with much enthusiasm. I guess I should have known enough to try to tie things together, since a BTO purchase means it is direct from Apple, which means no middleman and so higher profit margins. Plus it gives the chance for an upsell on other things, like memory or HD space. Oh well. I think the problem with a lot of the gamer market, especially back then, is that it was with a younger segment that didn't have much funds. They would prioritize speed over quality, at a given price, trying just for the most power. The other thing would be upgradability, getting in the door now with a good system, and upgrading in the future (even if in total that is more expensive). There is a subset, even more now than then, that was willing to dump a lot more money in. But like many things, the economics of it aren't equal across the board, especially on upfront costs. I don't think I ever had an ADC monitor for my personal machine (did have a few CRT and LCD ones at work), and most video cards had at least 2 options. But most of the time there were far fewer video card options, not many drivers, and often the drivers were delayed. In retrospect it's amazing that Steve was able to have so many Quake and other high end game demos at various Keynotes. Ah well. Like all things Apple, but even more justified back then, they are trying to stay focused. And sometimes that means not focusing on things some people wish they would.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 24, 2023 11:43:51 GMT -8
165 has given way to 170 as Max Pain at the moment though Volume is still king at 165. Don't know how that works. If I had a contract to sell covered calls for hedge funds I would sell the 170s.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 24, 2023 12:08:17 GMT -8
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Post by mikez on Apr 25, 2023 16:28:34 GMT -8
Yuck on an external battery, if that turns out to be true. How is a VR headset, with a battery hanging off it, supposed to be a practical fitness device? Makes no sense. And Maps? Walking around in public with this class of device on your head? That also makes no sense. Sure hope these early reports are wrong. I'm sure it's that compromise, to get something out now vs lower power needs and more powerful batteries sometime in the future. FWIW, headlamps and battery powered pro devices have had to make this tradeoff. The low to mid level consumer products often have the battery with them, like my blinding headlamp with 2x 18650 batteries (each maybe the size and weight of 2-3 AA batteries). But step up a level, to a spelunking one, a high level biking one, or an industrial one, and you are putting a battery on the waist or back pocket. Same thing with an air blower. The consumer level ones normally still have the battery in the unit, but the pro ones go on up to having a battery backpack...not all too different from having a gas engine for the blower on your back. I guess that's the trade-off with lots of devices, like a central vac vs a standard vacuum. Or the paint air sprayer I used last night with its air generation in a base unit, vs the cheap paint air sprayer I have that basically has a hair dryer fan on the handheld unit. (FWIW it worked pretty well, and made it so I didn't have to fire up the air compressor and run a line) I can see taking all the weight you can off of the head unit. But I'm much more practical than worrying about if it is the most elegant solution, in the distant past preferring the compatibility of VGA and DVI to the "one less cord" of ADC video connectors. (EDIT: I guess I see this as an ergonomics issue as much as a feasibility issue. But it hasn't been that many years since 95%+ of the headphone market was corded to a iPod or iPhone in a pocket or pack.) The magic leap thing needed a lot of power and had a battery on your belt.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 26, 2023 3:42:37 GMT -8
Re, Magic Leap it was a massive failure. They blew through a ton of money to make something that almost no one wanted. Thing is, Apple has unique capability in low power silicon, which I was hoping would result in something more ergonomically friendly than what others are capable of. Guess we will see.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 26, 2023 6:48:25 GMT -8
Re, Magic Leap it was a massive failure. They blew through a ton of money to make something that almost no one wanted. Thing is, Apple has unique capability in low power silicon, which I was hoping would result in something more ergonomically friendly than what others are capable of. Guess we will see. Apple definitely has a unique advantage, but it's quite possible that their unique advantage may still not be able to overcome the power demands of this particular product right now. I'm pretty sure that Apple will use their display technology that dynamically varies the refresh rate as needed (like they do in the always on watch or iPhone displays). But it is still possible that the overall processing power needed, plus sensor/display power needed will overcome a battery that is light enough to be worn on ones head.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 26, 2023 7:33:58 GMT -8
Re, Magic Leap it was a massive failure. They blew through a ton of money to make something that almost no one wanted. Thing is, Apple has unique capability in low power silicon, which I was hoping would result in something more ergonomically friendly than what others are capable of. Guess we will see. Apple definitely has a unique advantage, but it's quite possible that their unique advantage may still not be able to overcome the power demands of this particular product right now. I'm pretty sure that Apple will use their display technology that dynamically varies the refresh rate as needed (like they do in the always on watch or iPhone displays). But it is still possible that the overall processing power needed, plus sensor/display power needed will overcome a battery that is light enough to be worn on ones head. Quite likely true. I believe that this device will easily be the most difficult engineering challenge that Apple has faced for an end user device. Gen 1 will likely have a set of “no-choice” compromises that will result in niche appeal. And then they increment, which they have the resources, long-term perspective, and staying power to do.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 26, 2023 11:16:42 GMT -8
Apple definitely has a unique advantage, but it's quite possible that their unique advantage may still not be able to overcome the power demands of this particular product right now. I'm pretty sure that Apple will use their display technology that dynamically varies the refresh rate as needed (like they do in the always on watch or iPhone displays). But it is still possible that the overall processing power needed, plus sensor/display power needed will overcome a battery that is light enough to be worn on ones head. Quite likely true. I believe that this device will easily be the most difficult engineering challenge that Apple has faced for an end user device. Gen 1 will likely have a set of “no-choice” compromises that will result in niche appeal. And then they increment, which they have the resources, long-term perspective, and staying power to do. I still have my doubts about whether or not consumers will flock to this kind of thing. I happen to wear glasses, and have worn glasses for many decades, but I am not sure if others want to wear something on their face for long periods of time. The fact that so many people have gone to contact lenses or to the Lasik route leads me to believe that they do not. Of course, if the utility of the product is so great, consumers might change their perspective about it.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 27, 2023 4:47:58 GMT -8
If the renderings are close to real, I think it will only get used for use cases where it delivers unique and desirable functionality that no other Apple device delivers. Running most existing iPad apps won’t clear that bar in my view. Maybe gaming, and consumption of content that is designed for it might. There are also industrial use cases, but those won’t be high volume.
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