Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on May 3, 2023 1:42:41 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 3, 2023 5:14:19 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 3, 2023 5:49:59 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 7:27:24 GMT -8
This is confusing: They must have just not put in the full statement, and are talking about expectations for the full year, ending in the fall, when saying EPS of $6.30 vs the street's $6.17? Another story had Baird estimating EPS of $1.41, similar to the street estimate of $1.43 listed above. This is the time for everyone to get their name in print by updating their targets, ideally getting them closer though that's hard to do without fresh data from Apple. But then they get free press again after earnings, but updating them with the new data. There are lots of things going on at the moment. It seems likely that the next weeks to month should be up for the market, but that depends on what the Fed says. They do have the power to say "no, not yet", even if it is unlikely. And there's lots of other things that will move the market in the very short term, getting people worried about this or that, but in the grand scheme they don't matter as much unless things really go south quickly (nukes, attacks, and debt limit politics). Longer term, the next 6 months though it might take 12, there should be an overall upswing in the market too, as things loosen and the economy moves forward, post fed-slowing. Nothing is a given on the day to day, but the longer term trends seem likely unless the game changes dramatically. And while AAPL can buck the trend, the likely move is in the same direction, even if it is amplified (or in some cases muted).
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 10:09:43 GMT -8
A few years back, after Apple for several years had put more emphasis on workers and conditions at 3rd party suppliers and assemblers, Apple found a couple violations. If I remember right, there were a couple 15 year olds that had given false papers saying they were 16, so that they could work at the site. Apparently violations happen in the US too, even if the initial headline paints a much different story than some of the details found further in: 10-year-old children were found working at a Louisville McDonald’s until 2 a.m.So exactly what that "employed - but not paid" means is interesting. Maybe the kids were there instead of home alone, they swept some things up or grabbed trash, and got a burger and milkshake for their work? It doesn't fully tell us. But headlines sell, and even those that opened the article didn't see some of the details until the second half of the article. OTOH, the “employed 305 children to work more than the legally permitted hours and perform tasks prohibited by law for young workers,” might be the more important part of it. Labor might be tough to find these days, but you've got to stay on the right side of those things, especially with kids.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 10:19:39 GMT -8
The Fed update is in, raising the rates by .25% to 5%, and signaling a break while they continue looking at data, including forward looking data. Federal Reserve pushes interest rates above 5% for first time since 2007(I'm going to assume the spelling error wasn't in the quote from the Fed, and only with Yahoo. But with less and less editing even on major sites, I have to wonder. OTOH, we're a minor site here, and I made selling errors all of the time Apparently Freudian Slips too )
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Post by duckpins on May 3, 2023 11:00:47 GMT -8
"The central bank's move pushed its benchmark policy rate, the fed funds rate, to a new range of 5%-5.25%" So this dovetails with a sinking economy? Regional banks have been crushed by the FED. But this makes GS stronger. Now we see a commercial real estate problem. Nordstoms and Anthropologie closed and are leaving SF? If you can't make it in SF where there are millions of upper class and upper middle class shoppers? Now we have empty malls as the kids of the GENX let's go to the Mall generation, no longer go to the mall. The office buildings are hurt by empty space from the work from home nonsense.
An ill wind is blowing through regional banks. All the loans to local malls and office buildings suddenly look like-well I don't want them. And neither does Berkshire. This with a rapidly declining stock market, leveraged bonds that pay 1-4 percent and are rapidly declining in value, decline stock prices and deposits that are moving to the large banks means there are more banks closer to the edge.
Fed missed the boat. The economy slowing will tame inflation as will increasing unemployment. Keeping down the price of commodities should be their concern. Maybe they should ask one of the new AI's what to do? I saw a guy hyping AI on Bloomberg, he said it was real good for disadvantaged students, thus deflecting all criticism and doubt. When cornered apply critical race theory and no one will dare challenge you. Why not have your computer do your tests and write papers? Makes sense. Creates equity in school.
One should tread lightly. BRK still looks good to me, they have lots of Apple and have trimmed their banks.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 11:41:13 GMT -8
The Fed has to pick their fights and targets. I thought a lot of the retail closures in SF were due to continued shoplifting on a massive scale. At least that is what a lot of stories have pushed, but my understanding is that it's not just an agenda being pushed, but real. Baby formula being put behind glass. Flashmob of ~80 stealing clothes (~year ago, in Walnut Creek and SF). People being shot or shot at during thefts (catalytic converters, but also a shoplifter in SF killed, and a HD employee trying to stop a shoplifter in Pleasanton being killed). At some point it's just not worth it to have a retail store there, especially if your main customers are willing to drive or to buy online. (EDIT: FWIW, this CNN story says this view is wrong, www.cnn.com/2023/05/03/politics/san-francisco-crime-rate-what-matters/index.html That is always the worry, that a few visible reports turn the view on something. Like the recent 3 stabbings, with 2 deaths, in Davis. It does point out that property theft is up. I personally view it as what the public deems normal or ok, and if we're fine with public drug use and theft while murders are down, probably a decent tradeoff to most people, then it makes sense that we see a change there. But the main point is that foottraffic is down (probably having something to do with all of those office buildings being empty), so there is less business at stores. And that partially goes back to housing issues, but also the basics of separating the places people live from the places they work, just as many large metropolises are. But that's just a theory on city development, partially based on my wanting short commutes for myself, and it's probably better to leave to the experts even if it seems like it's the root of so many problems (commutes, pollution, parking, housing, public transportation, etc)) But on the regional banks, it's really just a short term liquidity crisis, due to their own mistakes. Maybe if there are more, if it really is just a "short term needs vs long term assets", a smaller bank could do a takeover, as long as a lender of last resort backs it. But many would prefer for a big bank to get it without the government taking on too much of the cost, rather than the government taking on this cost now but getting it back in the long run. (my understanding, which seems to match theory, is that in total the distressed mortgages that the government took on in ~2008 ended up positive in the longer term. Just like some of Buffet's investments including around that time, sometimes it helps to be the big player with the resources and a long enough timeframe) I doubt some people ever forgave Milken, but his quote today seemed right on the money: Michael Milken on the banking turmoil: This is not another financial crisis
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Post by rmhe1999 on May 3, 2023 13:49:43 GMT -8
I had to do a double take at the after hours action and ask myself, “Was AAPL reporting earnings today?!?” Qualcomm guidance taking us down notably after hours.
Qualcomm reported second-quarter earnings on Wednesday that were in line with analyst expectations. Sales from handset chips, a core business for the company, declined 17% from a year earlier. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon blamed a challenging environment in a statement, and the company said it had not seen evidence that smartphone sales are recovering in China.
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ono
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Post by ono on May 3, 2023 14:12:22 GMT -8
"The muted outlook also reflected a larger-than-expected decline in revenues due to the timing of purchases by a customer that only buys cellular modems from Qualcomm, the company said. Apple fits that description, though Qualcomm didn’t name the customer. The iPhone maker reports quarterly results Thursday. "
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 14:14:11 GMT -8
I had to do a double take at the after hours action and ask myself, “Was AAPL reporting earnings today?!?” Qualcomm guidance taking us down notably after hours. Qualcomm reported second-quarter earnings on Wednesday that were in line with analyst expectations. Sales from handset chips, a core business for the company, declined 17% from a year earlier. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon blamed a challenging environment in a statement, and the company said it had not seen evidence that smartphone sales are recovering in China. I wondered the same thing: Qualcomm gives grim outlook as smartphone sales stay weak
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on May 3, 2023 14:23:47 GMT -8
What happened to AAPL in the last hour of the Market today? In case you missed it, PED had Apple as a 'can't live without' consumer staples company. Most pundits are viewing Apple as the pacesetter for Big Tech earnings season, though some are a bit skeptical. Would have been nice to hold on to 170, but a good report should take care of that.
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ono
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Post by ono on May 3, 2023 14:27:56 GMT -8
Maybe an $.08 increase (8.7% increase) to an annual $1.00/share.
Dividend increases: 2012: $0.38 per share (Initiated div) 2013: $0.44 (15% increase) 0.15 2014: $0.47 (8% increase) 0.08 2015: $0.52 (11% increase) 0.12 2016: $0.57 (10% increase) 0.10 2017: $0.63 (11% increase) 0.11 2018: $0.73 (16% increase) 0.16 2019 (5% increase) 0.05 2020 (6% increase to $0.82) 0.06 2021 (7% increase to $0.88) 0.07 2022 (5% increase to $0.92) 0.05
They could easily increase it much higher, yet Apple will likely continue to project that shares are undervalued and buybacks are superior for rewarding long term investors. See CAGR.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 3, 2023 15:16:54 GMT -8
Whether Thursday's Apple earnings are good, bad or neutral, AAPL may drop tomorrow...either after hours because of the market's response to Apple's earnings or the market's response to today's Qualcomm's earnings. If it does, or really, even if it doesn't, it's important for long term AAPL investors to remember where the stock is compared to its ATH and, also, compared to the position of other popular stocks which are down, and in some cases *way* down, from *their* ATH.
1. AAPL, down -8% from it’s January 2022 high, 17 months ago 2. MSFT, down -10.2% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago 3. GOOG, down -29.6% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago 4. META, down -38% from it’s September 2021 high, 21 months ago 5. AMZN, down -44.3% from it’s July 2021 high, 23 months ago 6. NFLX, down -53.8% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago 7. TSLA, down -60.8% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago
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Post by eastbaybob on May 3, 2023 15:24:30 GMT -8
Maybe an $.08 increase (8.7% increase) to an annual $1.00/share. Dividend increases: 2012: $0.38 per share (Initiated div) 2013: $0.44 (15% increase) 0.15 2014: $0.47 (8% increase) 0.08 2015: $0.52 (11% increase) 0.12 2016: $0.57 (10% increase) 0.10 2017: $0.63 (11% increase) 0.11 2018: $0.73 (16% increase) 0.16 2019 (5% increase) 0.05 2020 (6% increase to $0.82) 0.06 2021 (7% increase to $0.88) 0.07 2022 (5% increase to $0.92) 0.05 They could easily increase it much higher, yet Apple will likely continue to project that shares are undervalued and buybacks are superior for rewarding long term investors. See CAGR. Maybe superior if you are still working but as someone who has been retired for 12 years, I use my Apple dividends to fund my retirement. Yes I know I can sell shares, but the fewer the shares the less I would make on dividends. I am long 23 years
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 15:40:34 GMT -8
FWIW, you should be able to delete your own posts if you want to. (EastBayBob was trying to delete a duplicate) I know plenty of people have in the past, and I don't think anything has changed on that. It's probably in the "settings icon" menu.
I think.
That's where it is for moderators.
Crazy AAPL moves, though AH can always be shaky. Kids are looking at buying a few shares in their Roths, and I can always take on a few more if I want, or spend some cash from dividends in various retirement accounts. But with earnings tomorrow, there could very well be a dip from fear first thing tomorrow due to this Qualcomm stuff.
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ono
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Post by ono on May 3, 2023 16:37:41 GMT -8
I'm in a similar situation, retired almost the same number of years. Similarly long, too. I sell along the way. The CAGR is key to my overall wealth and thus sustainable withdrawal and spending rate (SWR).
I don't know your particulars, certainly. For me, the way they've managed capital returns has been fine. Some argue that buybacks haven't been a major contributing factor to the overall CAGR, but I've not heard a convincing one.
A person I know well, sold significant AAPL to invest in Verizon for the substantial dividend (cash flow). If you want, PM me, and I can share some analysis for my situation as well as his.
Having a few less shares of a greatly expanding pie is more emotional than financial (to me).
PS: I think it may have been in this forum, someone made their own synthetic "high yield dividend" from borrowing on their AAPL margin. The interest rate was crazy low. The math worked for them. It illustrated that robust share price growth was better than the high dividend rate, even with paying a bit of interest. (The CAGR of share exceeded the interest, by far. Almost cake and eat it too.)
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ono
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Post by ono on May 3, 2023 16:47:43 GMT -8
Note, this chart is when AAPL was at $129. I think I can share more via PM. There was a calc that took into account Verizon's substantial 6.5% yield
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 16:48:58 GMT -8
Whether Thursday's Apple earnings are good, bad or neutral, AAPL may drop tomorrow...either after hours because of the market's response to Apple's earnings or the market's response to today's Qualcomm's earnings. If it does, or really, even if it doesn't, it's important for long term AAPL investors to remember where the stock is compared to its ATH and, also, compared to the position of other popular stocks which are down, and in some cases *way* down, from *their* ATH. 1. AAPL, down -8% from it’s January 2022 high, 17 months ago 2. MSFT, down -10.2% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago 3. GOOG, down -29.6% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago 4. META, down -38% from it’s September 2021 high, 21 months ago 5. AMZN, down -44.3% from it’s July 2021 high, 23 months ago 6. NFLX, down -53.8% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago 7. TSLA, down -60.8% from it’s November 2021 high, 19 months ago I like these comparisons. It does make me feel a little better, that AAPL has done a better job at recovering back towards its most recent ATH. But just as you are not using the low as the benchmark, does it always make sense to use the ATH as the point? Maybe it makes sense to look at a timeframe. 2 years would intersect with the downturn. 5 years seems overdoing it a bit, but it is an option. It turns out, in the 5 year timeframe AAPL has done better than 5 of these peers. While I like AAPL, that's better than I expected. But take a guess. Which of these companies did better, and even much better, than AAPL over the past 5 years? 5 year yahoo chart of these 7 stocksYahoo charts doesn't give a button for a 10 year chart, but a custom date range solves that. Still, the same results, with AAPL doing well in 2nd place, though the next ones are much closer. 10 year chart of these 7 stocksWell, can't win them all, but it also doesn't matter that much. AAPL has done well, and is much less volatile than back in the day. And that one stock, that I won't name just for kicks, has done amazingly. And it's not even AMZN.
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ono
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Post by ono on May 3, 2023 17:17:15 GMT -8
www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-is-about-to-rain-billions-more-on-investors-as-cash-position-shrinks-f98121b1BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan also expects that the company will boost its dividend by 5%, to 24 cents a share, though he expects a slightly smaller increase of $80 billion to the buyback authorization. But he questions whether Apple is going far enough with its efforts to unload its net-cash position. Apple once hoarded cash in even greater amounts, but back in 2018, Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said the company would start drawing down its net-cash balance, which at the time stood at upwards of $160 million. While Wall Street likes to speculate about the potential for flashy deals — would Apple buy Netflix Inc. NFLX or even Sonos Inc. SONO ? — Maestri has indicated that the company overwhelmingly plans to prioritize shareholder returns. BofA’s Mohan, however, doubts whether the net-cash-neutral goal is optimal. “If services are a larger part of the mix, and Apple has better visibility and more stable revenues, earnings and cash flow, then Apple could afford to go into a net-debt position to do things like more significant [mergers and acquisitions],” he wrote. “We believe its strong free-cash flow would allow Apple to de-lever quickly, if needed.” Regardless, one benefit of the commitment to shareholder returns is that it helps Apple’s stock stand out, according to Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan. Boosts to the dividend and buyback programs “will reinforce investor sentiment relative to shares of Apple representing a relative safe haven in the current macro backdrop with a robust balance sheet and flexibility to buy back shares,” he wrote.www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/apple-q2-2023-earnings-preview-90-billion-in-buybacks-expected.html
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on May 3, 2023 18:02:22 GMT -8
FWIW, you should be able to delete your own posts if you want to. (EastBayBob was trying to delete a duplicate) I know plenty of people have in the past, and I don't think anything has changed on that. It's probably in the "settings icon" menu. I think. That's where it is for moderators. Crazy AAPL moves, though AH can always be shaky. The way I account for AH trading is by volume. Today AH volume is 8.7M ... that makes it very significant. When volume is small in AH, I generally ignore AH gyrations. The Qualcomm news is indeed somewhat worrisome for this quarter. It appears that it is quite possible for both iPhone and Mac to have significant down numbers. That expectation is part of why I bailed on my 140/160 June '23 BCS, and rolled into a Jan '24 140/160 BCS instead.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 18:33:18 GMT -8
The way I account for AH trading is by volume. Today AH volume is 8.7M ... that makes it very significant. When volume is small in AH, I generally ignore AH gyrations. The Qualcomm news is indeed somewhat worrisome for this quarter. It appears that it is quite possible for both iPhone and Mac to have significant down numbers. That expectation is part of why I bailed on my 140/160 June '23 BCS, and rolled into a Jan '24 140/160 BCS instead. I guess I saw it the opposite way, that the big volume caused the larger drop in pricing. All it took was one, or a couple, larger players trying to get a jump on tomorrow's announcement. OTOH, it could be someone trying to play up the fear, using big volume to try to push the price lower. We'll see what happens in the morning. Like AH, I'd expect the biggest move to be right away, and then the price to slowly calm down. But towards the end of the trading day, the last 60-15 minutes, all bets are off. Then earnings. And then AH. And then the call, and more AH. Plenty of volatility. Luckily it doesn't matter in the long run. In the short term, it can be fun or it can be a worry. If it's a worry, best to not get too focused on it. We all know that. But sometimes it's harder to remember.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 3, 2023 19:05:27 GMT -8
The way I account for AH trading is by volume. Today AH volume is 8.7M ... that makes it very significant. When volume is small in AH, I generally ignore AH gyrations. The Qualcomm news is indeed somewhat worrisome for this quarter. It appears that it is quite possible for both iPhone and Mac to have significant down numbers. That expectation is part of why I bailed on my 140/160 June '23 BCS, and rolled into a Jan '24 140/160 BCS instead. I guess I saw it the opposite way, that the big volume caused the larger drop in pricing. All it took was one, or a couple, larger players trying to get a jump on tomorrow's announcement. Why would they do it in after hours though? They have all day tomorrow to do their trading! And despite the AH volume, liquidity is much better during normal hours. Nobody who wants to "play up the fear" has the kind of capital necessary to get to such high volume. Just the AH alone today was ~$1.5B of stock trading hands!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2023 19:55:24 GMT -8
I guess I saw it the opposite way, that the big volume caused the larger drop in pricing. All it took was one, or a couple, larger players trying to get a jump on tomorrow's announcement. Why would they do it in after hours though? They have all day tomorrow to do their trading! And despite the AH volume, liquidity is much better during normal hours. Nobody who wants to "play up the fear" has the kind of capital necessary to get to such high volume. Just the AH alone today was ~$1.5B of stock trading hands! I wouldn't think it would be just one fund in total, but it could be started with much smaller numbers. 10k of shares? 100k? If a fund has a serious position, and wants to sell a few percent, AH has low enough liquidity that they could really move the market. On purpose (to try to make gains off of it) or accident (trying to beat out a rush down further, but then the further drop doesn't happen). It could also be an AI or a fat finger. Or some gun slingers trying to make a name. And sure, they don't likely have the capital to do all of the buying or all of the selling. But sometimes it doesn't take much to start a stampede. I don't know exactly the liquidity in AAPL AH these days, and how much it would take, especially when some uncertain news comes out. Maybe it does take some decently sizable quantities. My mind wants to find a way to blame it on "day traders" or bots or even meme traders. But it seems like enough hedge funds try to get a leg up, even if they often don't succeed, that they could be a likely candidate too. And some of them are not afraid to overextend, and have the leverage and resources to do so. But who knows. It's easy to make up theories, conspiracy or otherwise, when something odd happens and you don't have info. There's lots of scapegoats out there. But it should matter very little in 36 hours or so, or at least a week from now. FUD doesn't really happen once we have the facts, and they've been digested by the analysts and market.
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Post by hledgard on May 3, 2023 20:09:12 GMT -8
Maybe an $.08 increase (8.7% increase) to an annual $1.00/share. Dividend increases: 2012: $0.38 per share (Initiated div) 2013: $0.44 (15% increase) 0.15 2014: $0.47 (8% increase) 0.08 2015: $0.52 (11% increase) 0.12 2016: $0.57 (10% increase) 0.10 2017: $0.63 (11% increase) 0.11 2018: $0.73 (16% increase) 0.16 2019 (5% increase) 0.05 2020 (6% increase to $0.82) 0.06 2021 (7% increase to $0.88) 0.07 2022 (5% increase to $0.92) 0.05 They could easily increase it much higher, yet Apple will likely continue to project that shares are undervalued and buybacks are superior for rewarding long term investors. See CAGR. Maybe superior if you are still working but as someone who has been retired for 12 years, I use my Apple dividends to fund my retirement. Yes I know I can sell shares, but the fewer the shares the less I would make on dividends. I am long 23 years Gosh, I am long 35 years. Sold some along the way, but held most. Many years ago, my mother liked to invest and trade in the stock market. Her advice? The only way a lay person can really make money in the stock market is to buy a company you believe in, and hold on. I was in Computer Science, had an Apple computer, and really disliked Microsoft computers. Don't need to say more. PS. We are all lucky that Apple has done so amazingly well.
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Post by benoir on May 4, 2023 1:53:46 GMT -8
Gosh, I am long 35 years. Sold some along the way, but held most. Many years ago, my mother liked to invest and trade in the stock market. Her advice? The only way a lay person can really make money in the stock market is to buy a company you believe in, and hold on. I was in Computer Science, had an Apple computer, and really disliked Microsoft computers. Don't need to say more. PS. We are all lucky that Apple has done so amazingly well. wow, I feel like a juvenile at only 23
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