Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on May 5, 2023 0:36:26 GMT -8
Good morning and welcome to the day after. This morning’s pre-market is a nice shade of green at +2.24% at this moment.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 5, 2023 1:02:56 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 5, 2023 1:09:46 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 5, 2023 5:55:13 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2023 7:13:42 GMT -8
I'm not sure I understand the people who insist there will be no recession. First off, we haven't had a recession in a long while, so it's bound to happen pretty soon. Second, we are in the midst of rapidly rising interest rates, that almost always results in a recession. Third, we are just dropping off a big economic bump (COVID and related policy). One of the main arguments against a recession is that next year is an election year, but nevertheless it can still happen. Remember, Bush was not re-elected partly because the recession ("his" recession) ended a few months too late (peak unemployment was almost exactly on election day!). The REAL discussion here should be "what do we do?" if we expect a recession to arrive in the not too distant future? How much will it hurt Apple business and therefore Apple stock price, and what can we do to alleviate that somewhat? And perhaps more importantly, how quickly will it end, and how to best position for it ending? So the real preparation is deciding when it will happen, how severe it will be, how it will affect the economy, and how it is likely to affect Apple and AAPL. Yesterday's earnings gave a recession for Apple, 2 quarters of lower earnings (I don't have Q4 written down). And they were just barely down for this quarter, down 3% for revenue, about 3% for net income, and flat in EPS terms. A pretty mild Apple recession...so far. All that, and the stock is basically at its peak from 9 months ago, and ~5% off its peaky peaky ATH from 16 months ago. Apparently being 6 months in to a mild Apple recession isn't that bad, at least looking forward and while comparing to the competition. So (like Mark said) the real questions are if the overall economy goes into a recession (likely), when will it be, how bad will it be, how will it affect Apple, and how will it affect AAPL?
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Post by bud777 on May 5, 2023 8:39:57 GMT -8
To paraphrase an expression from the 60s, What if they gave a recession and nobody came?
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2023 9:06:00 GMT -8
I'm not sure I understand the people who insist there will be no recession. First off, we haven't had a recession in a long while, so it's bound to happen pretty soon. Second, we are in the midst of rapidly rising interest rates, that almost always results in a recession. Third, we are just dropping off a big economic bump (COVID and related policy). One of the main arguments against a recession is that next year is an election year, but nevertheless it can still happen. Remember, Bush was not re-elected partly because the recession ("his" recession) ended a few months too late (peak unemployment was almost exactly on election day!). The REAL discussion here should be "what do we do?" if we expect a recession to arrive in the not too distant future? How much will it hurt Apple business and therefore Apple stock price, and what can we do to alleviate that somewhat? And perhaps more importantly, how quickly will it end, and how to best position for it ending? So the real preparation is deciding when it will happen, how severe it will be, how it will affect the economy, and how it is likely to affect Apple and AAPL. Yesterday's earnings gave a recession for Apple, 2 quarters of lower earnings (I don't have Q4 written down). And they were just barely down for this quarter, down 3% for revenue, about 3% for net income, and flat in EPS terms. A pretty mild Apple recession...so far. All that, and the stock is basically at its peak from 9 months ago, and ~5% off its peaky peaky ATH from 16 months ago. Apparently being 6 months in to a mild Apple recession isn't that bad, at least looking forward and while comparing to the competition. So (like Mark said) the real questions are if the overall economy goes into a recession (likely), when will it be, how bad will it be, how will it affect Apple, and how will it affect AAPL? With that mindset, I'd guess at a mild recession with a flat to slightly down overall economy has been priced in, for the middle 60% on up to even 80% probability. Apple itself, in a flat to mild recession, probably does a little better than most companies, due to its average clientele. And so I would think AAPL, both because of this and due to being forward looking by 6 months or so, would still manage to go upward. As long as the recession stayed mild, and not too many outside influences were added. But what does that mean on stock price. Just like the couple peaks over the past 16 months, there are times where investors get too excited, and the stock gets ahead of itself. Ideally, if one was going to sell some shares, or write covered calls, they would do this near these over-excited times. Looking at options, it doesn't look like things are currently overdone, and I must have clicked the wrong date when I at first thought things were getting that way. I think I was looking at Dec '24 values, thinking I had selected Dec '23 values. With that mindset, it was starting to look tempting to write some covered calls against a percentage of shares. But this is just day 1, after earnings. WWDC is in a month. Often, there is an anticipatory run up. Hopefully, between decent earnings for the economy, and excitement for WWDC announcements, we'll see a couple weeks of upswell. But while things beat expectations, it was only a match on EPS YOY due to the buybacks, with the things that were positive only canceling out the things that were negative. I'm happy to see AAPL up, but in most times this wouldn't have been seen so well. Looks like the Theory of Relativity applies to stock prices, too.
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aapltini
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Post by aapltini on May 5, 2023 9:07:55 GMT -8
Overall, a pretty good report yesterday in light of the overall economy. However, that dividend “increase” was laughable. A 4% increase doesn’t even keep up with inflation. For those of us that depend on AAPL as part of our retirement plan, we just got a net pay decrease.
I understand the buybacks/dividend argument, to which I say, why can’t we do both? To give us a 5% to even a 50% dividend bump would be exactly zero drops of sweat off of their corporate sack. Especially with the ever-decreasing outstanding share count and their “goal to become cash neutral”. We could help them with that goal.
Hell, a 4% raise isn’t even a tip. Maybe we shareholders should unionize? 🤣
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 5, 2023 9:28:13 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on May 5, 2023 9:42:24 GMT -8
"oh for joy." M. G. Krebs. Yesterday none of the financial channels obsessed about Apple earnings the way the usually do. They covered them but not over the top. Quiet moves are the best in the market. So maybe we go to a new high by June? The regional banks are up on Friday. Could be the pattern of the shorts covering for the weekend but Monday watch out.
This is going to be a problem for Biden and the country if it gets worse. The problem is the FED does not want to admit they are wrong...so they minimized the bank collapses as overreactions. But lots of money goes down the drain. And with bank crises the momentum feeds on itself at least that has been the case in history.
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Post by macster on May 5, 2023 10:53:04 GMT -8
"oh for joy." M. G. Krebs. Yesterday none of the financial channels obsessed about Apple earnings the way the usually do. They covered them but not over the top. Quiet moves are the best in the market. So maybe we go to a new high by June? The regional banks are up on Friday. Could be the pattern of the shorts covering for the weekend but Monday watch out. This is going to be a problem for Biden and the country if it gets worse. The problem is the FED does not want to admit they are wrong...so they minimized the bank collapses as overreactions. But lots of money goes down the drain. And with bank crises the momentum feeds on itself at least that has been the case in history. The strong economy has been a hindrance to the fed in its quest for that 2% inflation goal. It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down. The post lockdown fast recovery, more demand than supply and the enormous spending laid the foundation for inflation. I think interest rates will be high for some time. What that means I have no idea how the current administration policy and economy plays out.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on May 5, 2023 13:30:13 GMT -8
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ono
Member
posted
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Post by ono on May 5, 2023 15:52:52 GMT -8
The strong economy has been a hindrance to the fed in its quest for that 2% inflation goal. It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down. The post lockdown fast recovery, more demand than supply and the enormous spending laid the foundation for inflation. I think interest rates will be high for some time. What that means I have no idea how the current administration policy and economy plays out.
Search “A Debt Deal Could Help Solve the Country’s Inflation Problem”
Read this article, down-the-middle (there are plenty of contributors to this mess, over many years), it’s an interesting read on the challenges that the Fed faces with monetary tools' muted impact, and they could use some Fiscal help:
"So the Fed could use some help. Granted, under the traditional division of labor, the Fed worries about inflation and leaves fiscal policy to Congress and the president. But not always.
In retrospect, fiscal policy overdid it. Unlike in 2011 when the problem was inadequate demand, the problem since the pandemic has been too little supply. In that environment... xxxx $1.9 trillion stimulus in 2021 helped push inflation higher."
Sorry, paywalled.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 5, 2023 16:24:54 GMT -8
The strong economy has been a hindrance to the fed in its quest for that 2% inflation goal. It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down. The post lockdown fast recovery, more demand than supply and the enormous spending laid the foundation for inflation. I think interest rates will be high for some time. What that means I have no idea how the current administration policy and economy plays out.Search “A Debt Deal Could Help Solve the Country’s Inflation Problem” Read this article, down-the-middle (there are plenty of contributors to this mess, over many years), it’s an interesting read on the challenges that the Fed faces with monetary tools' muted impact, and they could use some Fiscal help: "So the Fed could use some help. Granted, under the traditional division of labor, the Fed worries about inflation and leaves fiscal policy to Congress and the president. But not always. In retrospect, fiscal policy overdid it. Unlike in 2011 when the problem was inadequate demand, the problem since the pandemic has been too little supply. In that environment... xxxx $1.9 trillion stimulus in 2021 helped push inflation higher." Sorry, paywalled. I'm very interested in reasoned commentary regarding the ongoing inflation. But when I searched for the phrase, "It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down." all that appeared were articles related to the sinking of the Titanic. Would it be possible for you to identify the *source* of that sentence? TIA
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2023 18:53:15 GMT -8
The strong economy has been a hindrance to the fed in its quest for that 2% inflation goal. It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down. The post lockdown fast recovery, more demand than supply and the enormous spending laid the foundation for inflation. I think interest rates will be high for some time. What that means I have no idea how the current administration policy and economy plays out.Search “A Debt Deal Could Help Solve the Country’s Inflation Problem” Read this article, down-the-middle (there are plenty of contributors to this mess, over many years), it’s an interesting read on the challenges that the Fed faces with monetary tools' muted impact, and they could use some Fiscal help: "So the Fed could use some help. Granted, under the traditional division of labor, the Fed worries about inflation and leaves fiscal policy to Congress and the president. But not always. In retrospect, fiscal policy overdid it. Unlike in 2011 when the problem was inadequate demand, the problem since the pandemic has been too little supply. In that environment... xxxx $1.9 trillion stimulus in 2021 helped push inflation higher." Sorry, paywalled. I'm very interested in reasoned commentary regarding the ongoing inflation. But when I searched for the phrase, "It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down." all that appeared were articles related to the sinking of the Titanic. Would it be possible for you to identify the *source* of that sentence? TIA The sentence you searched for was from macster, 3 posts up from yours, aaplfinance.proboards.com/post/131762The sentence Ono said to search for was “A Debt Deal Could Help Solve the Country’s Inflation Problem” For me, the first hit on Google for that quote (including the quotes) was on WSJ at www.wsj.com/articles/a-debt-deal-could-help-solve-the-countrys-inflation-problem-bef121c
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Post by Luckychoices on May 5, 2023 21:20:58 GMT -8
I'm very interested in reasoned commentary regarding the ongoing inflation. But when I searched for the phrase, "It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down." all that appeared were articles related to the sinking of the Titanic. Would it be possible for you to identify the *source* of that sentence? TIA The sentence you searched for was from macster, 3 posts up from yours, aaplfinance.proboards.com/post/131762The sentence Ono said to search for was “A Debt Deal Could Help Solve the Country’s Inflation Problem” For me, the first hit on Google for that quote (including the quotes) was on WSJ at www.wsj.com/articles/a-debt-deal-could-help-solve-the-countrys-inflation-problem-bef121c Thanks, 4aapl! Sorry, I missed seeing macster's previous post. There was no mention in Ono's comment he was including another's post in his...but the phrasing of that sentence sounded so familiar, I was certain I'd read "reasoned commentary" from that person in the past.
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Post by macster on May 6, 2023 4:41:51 GMT -8
The strong economy has been a hindrance to the fed in its quest for that 2% inflation goal. It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down. The post lockdown fast recovery, more demand than supply and the enormous spending laid the foundation for inflation. I think interest rates will be high for some time. What that means I have no idea how the current administration policy and economy plays out.Search “A Debt Deal Could Help Solve the Country’s Inflation Problem” Read this article, down-the-middle (there are plenty of contributors to this mess, over many years), it’s an interesting read on the challenges that the Fed faces with monetary tools' muted impact, and they could use some Fiscal help: "So the Fed could use some help. Granted, under the traditional division of labor, the Fed worries about inflation and leaves fiscal policy to Congress and the president. But not always. In retrospect, fiscal policy overdid it. Unlike in 2011 when the problem was inadequate demand, the problem since the pandemic has been too little supply. In that environment... xxxx $1.9 trillion stimulus in 2021 helped push inflation higher." Sorry, paywalled. I'm very interested in reasoned commentary regarding the ongoing inflation. But when I searched for the phrase, "It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down." all that appeared were articles related to the sinking of the Titanic. Would it be possible for you to identify the *source* of that sentence? TIA “It will and is taking longer to slow down the titanic economic growth and jobs foundation that the previous president initially laid down” It was reasoned commentary (IMO) that I made up from a year of reading from different sources, keeping in mind early 2020 economic conditions before lockdown. What I didn’t mention is what Ono stated…that there are many many contributors to inflation from actions over a long period. The US, from my understanding, has alway suffered less inflation than other countries in the industrialized world. And no I did not look that up either with a search. It’s my opinion. The problem with discussion boards is opinion. Chat GPT and Ai may be the end of us lol. IMO? or IDK? 🤔🤷♂️
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 6, 2023 10:39:10 GMT -8
The problem with discussion boards is opinion. Chat GPT and Ai may be the end of us lol. IMO? or IDK? 🤔🤷♂️ An interesting thing I've seen in articles in recent years is typos, and in recent times that's even hit more mainstream places, including 2 quotes (one from the Fed) the week. Maybe it's just sloppiness or a rush to get things out the door, or budget cuts. In the past I wondered if it made doing a google search for a phrase, including the typo, easier. This would allow finding places that copied and pasted the article, and proving it. OTOH, Chat GPT shouldn't make those errors or typos, like "do" instead of "to", or whatever it was. I'd think the same as far as a generated article, that it shouldn't have an opinion. But some of the examples have shown that it can depend greatly on the question posed, and that the resultant piece can look like an opinion. The bigger problem may be the ones that don't look like an opinion. If there is no recourse, a piece can be created by a bad actor, or even just grab data from a bad actor. Fake News, not just opinionated news or news purposefully only showing one side, could make us doubt everything, if it even gives us the chance to doubt it. And that can take everything down a heck of a rabbit hole. Instead we'll have to have real people or companies backing articles. And that works for a while. But at some point some will just create fake "I approve this message" type statements, just like when fake UL stickers are made.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on May 7, 2023 7:54:04 GMT -8
The problem with discussion boards is opinion. Chat GPT and Ai may be the end of us lol. IMO? or IDK? 🤔🤷♂️ An interesting thing I've seen in articles in recent years is typos, and in recent times that's even hit more mainstream places, including 2 quotes (one from the Fed) the week. Maybe it's just sloppiness or a rush to get things out the door, or budget cuts. In the past I wondered if it made doing a google search for a phrase, including the typo, easier. This would allow finding places that copied and pasted the article, and proving it. OTOH, Chat GPT shouldn't make those errors or typos, like "do" instead of "to", or whatever it was. Could be that chatgpt is doing it on purpose to be more human-like.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on May 7, 2023 9:41:15 GMT -8
Or spell check, which is the excuse that I use. That and poor proofreading.
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