Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 11, 2023 0:44:06 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 11, 2023 1:06:27 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on May 11, 2023 3:44:50 GMT -8
I find Apple doesn't chase the latest trend. Remember when everyone was making super cheap netbooks? The Analysts were saying Apple would have to make one or they'd be in trouble. Where are netbooks now? Same goes for AI. Another trend that so many are jumping on. I find the that the analysts look at the latest shiny thing and say this is what everyone must do. They do this because they lack creativity to come up with something better, so they can't imagine someone else could be more creative and come up with something better.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on May 11, 2023 4:48:10 GMT -8
I don't want one either.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 11, 2023 6:34:42 GMT -8
As I have mentioned, I am out of the house much less often since I retired, so portability is a less important factor for me now. In addition, I remain skeptical that the bulk of a foldable phone will maintain its pocketability.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 11, 2023 8:15:23 GMT -8
I have no interest in a foldable phone. Don’t want the extra thickness in my pocket. And then you need to unfold it to be useful. Maybe I am thick, but I don’t see the point. Seems like a gimmick, more than anything.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2023 8:37:55 GMT -8
I find Apple doesn't chase the latest trend. Remember when everyone was making super cheap netbooks? The Analysts were saying Apple would have to make one or they'd be in trouble. Where are netbooks now? Same goes for AI. Another trend that so many are jumping on. I find the that the analysts look at the latest shiny thing and say this is what everyone must do. They do this because they lack creativity to come up with something better, so they can't imagine someone else could be more creative and come up with something better. Doesn't it come down to volumetric needs for a smartphone. At some point as things shrink, and you want a big screen, things get too thin and they flex. Especially if there is an outside force, like it being in a rear pocket and sitting on it. Hence that "flex-gate" year, maybe with the 8+. What I've found interesting is that many women's jeans have tiny pockets that can't fit an iPhone in the front pockets, and even with back pockets they stick out. And then there's the whole dress or athletic wear issue, where there are no pockets. While my jean pockets are plenty big, I don't need a big footprint, and wouldn't mind having a smaller one, especially if it also had a larger screen. I'm happy with what I have, and not having to open it or anything, but I'm not one to say that it is the penultimate for all time. At some point, for some people (including no pocket outfits), the Watch might replace the iphone all the time. Maybe it needs a fold-out display. Or a projector. Or a holograph. Or a set of glasses on your head... Everyone else is trying to get the jump on Apple, ideally that catches on in a big way, but just having something that is profitable and gains some interest is a good thing. Especially if they have a huge product line. Apple instead is a bit like Tesla in this way, with a limited product line, and often not even putting the product name on it. We'll see how things go. I'm sure Apple has been looking at foldables, and could likely have one mass produced within 6-12 months of deciding it's a go, but maybe it would take 18 months. But like has been said, they tend to sit back and wait to see what the demand is. Like with the fablet sized screens, or the Apple Pencil.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on May 11, 2023 9:27:20 GMT -8
Netbooks are now tablets for the most part. And Apple dominates that market in many places (the profitable places). Folding smartphones. Unless the market for them is well into the millions, there is no point for Apple to invest in this type of product. Add the fact that existing folding smartphones are generally trouble prone and thus it would require substantial engineering effort to design a really good one. And that would lead to an Apple folding smartphone being quite expensive ... which would depress the overall market even more. I bet Apple could design a good one, and sell 500,000 of them for $1999 each, nearly each one replacing the purchase of an iPhone Pro Max at $1399-1599. If gross margin on the pro max is 45%, that's ~$675, and if gross margin on the folding one is 35% (it is a much more complex device with many extra things in it, and way more difficult to assemble) then that's ~$700. So an extra $25 in gross margin, on under 1M in sales each year, even over 3 years of sales, isn't going to pay for the massive engineering effort needed to create a good folding product in the first place. It's just not worth it right now. One of the main reasons Apple has higher margins than the other smartphone manufacturers is because they wisely pick and choose how many and which models to produce. Now, if people flock to folding phones over the next few years, as they did to large screen phones a few years ago, then obviously Apple would need to have one too. But that isn't happening yet, and so far there is no indication of it happening. I suspect that one of the primary things stopping Apple right now is the fact that a truly combined screen when unfolded requires that the front be flexible plastic instead of glass. Has Apple made a non-glass front display product recently?
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on May 11, 2023 9:52:03 GMT -8
I would like a smaller iPhone for my front pocket. So if it had the footprint of the 4s, the last phone I loved, I'd buy it.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 11, 2023 10:27:20 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on May 11, 2023 10:37:21 GMT -8
2 things. Making the foldable a premium phone might not be the market. Making it convenient and not at a high price point might be the market. The Regional Banks are still tanking. You can't let another banking crises occur. The FED and Biden need to act. Biden can't be politically derailed by a bank crises and recession, the national election is irrelevant in CA, so I don't care one way or the other. Just saying from the political point of view you can't hand your opponent the key to the whitehouse. The FED is not supposed to cause another bank crises, not their job. They need to buy the bad bonds and loans from the Regionals. It is that simple. They would buy same from Citi and GS in a heartbeat. The shopping malls and offices in large cities are not good loans. We are starting to conversions of office building already. The good ones will be converted but the bad will wait for lower prices or foreclosures.
Newsome has a real problem with SF seeing Anthropologie and Nordstoms moving to the burbs. This is basically echoing the so called white flight of the late sixties and seventies. Now it's the middle class fleeing the large cities and CA also. Hello Willie Nelson.
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 529
|
Post by coma on May 11, 2023 10:40:49 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 11, 2023 10:58:00 GMT -8
I would like a smaller iPhone for my front pocket. So if it had the footprint of the 4s, the last phone I loved, I'd buy it. As I have mentioned, my iPhone is now my least used device (iMac and iPad Air get more use), so my current, two year old iPhone is an SE. We still have a landline phone, which is where nearly all of the political and commercial calls are received. I don’t give the number out to anyone other than Fabulous Spouse and close friends. I don’t know offhand how the SE size compares to the 4s, but you could check. If this would be your only phone, it may be worth seeing how well it meets your needs for a very reasonable price.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on May 11, 2023 11:01:03 GMT -8
Apologies for the bogus message.
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 529
|
Post by coma on May 11, 2023 11:36:51 GMT -8
I screwed up . . .
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 11, 2023 12:28:33 GMT -8
Another day of running in place.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 11, 2023 17:56:25 GMT -8
Now, if people flock to folding phones over the next few years, as they did to large screen phones a few years ago, then obviously Apple would need to have one too. But that isn't happening yet, and so far there is no indication of it happening. One reason that this time might be different is if the foldables only focus on the ultra high end, then a switchover from the most expensive iPhone to the most expensive non-iPhone would be pretty major. I don't know the stats on the $1300+ market, but I like to think that Apple has 80+% of it. We'll see how it goes. But I imagine that Apple has kept up to date on developing their own technology, and prototyping with some of the flexible solutions out there. That doesn't mean they could have one out at an instant, but having a relatively short timeframe if the market dictated would help. Or giving a bump to development early on if things look to be positive for that market, even before deciding for sure that they want to release one. Who knows? The probabilities seem low at the moment, but that doesn't mean it won't happen at some point.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
|
Post by mark on May 11, 2023 21:34:00 GMT -8
Now, if people flock to folding phones over the next few years, as they did to large screen phones a few years ago, then obviously Apple would need to have one too. But that isn't happening yet, and so far there is no indication of it happening. One reason that this time might be different is if the foldables only focus on the ultra high end, then a switchover from the most expensive iPhone to the most expensive non-iPhone would be pretty major. I don't know the stats on the $1300+ market, but I like to think that Apple has 80+% of it. In theory yes, but in practice VERY few people switch from iPhone to non-iPhone. This was even true during the 2-3 years that Android had large screen models and iPhone didn't. At best, people who want to try out a folding phone will keep their iPhone in their pocket AND buy a foldable Android to play with. And foldable phones will be all high-end because of their added costs and complexity. They have a whole hinge assembly (with all sorts of connections), they have [at least] 2 displays, 2 display drivers, and the latest Google Pixel Fold even has 2 batteries!
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on May 12, 2023 2:13:59 GMT -8
I’ve seen designs in some sci-fi movie, can’t recall which one, where their phone doesn’t fold flat but curves around the person’s wrist and straightens out flat when pulled off for use. Now that could be a game changer.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on May 12, 2023 6:31:35 GMT -8
One reason that this time might be different is if the foldables only focus on the ultra high end, then a switchover from the most expensive iPhone to the most expensive non-iPhone would be pretty major. I don't know the stats on the $1300+ market, but I like to think that Apple has 80+% of it. In theory yes, but in practice VERY few people switch from iPhone to non-iPhone. This was even true during the 2-3 years that Android had large screen models and iPhone didn't. At best, people who want to try out a folding phone will keep their iPhone in their pocket AND buy a foldable Android to play with. And foldable phones will be all high-end because of their added costs and complexity. They have a whole hinge assembly (with all sorts of connections), they have [at least] 2 displays, 2 display drivers, and the latest Google Pixel Fold even has 2 batteries! Yep, that's why I said it could be different. It would be very bad if people started switching, especially the very high end, "golden goose" and all. Sounds like I need to stop by the cell carrier store and look at these in person a bit more. The manager was good to talk to, giving insight into some of the androids that were selling. But I hear she has moved to a different state. I guess I'm not too worried about the connections/drivers/hinges. Apple has decades of experience with this. Sure, it's a little different, just as every time is. But the new and different is always the fun part on the design and engineering side, at least for those looking for a challenge. The iPhone has had a long stretch with the current candy bar design because it is solid and works, with only slight tweaks here and there. This bigger switch or addition might not happen. But if it does, Apple should be the most prepared for it compared to anyone. But they also know they would want a great product, both for their customers directly, but because of the scrutiny Apple products get that others don't. But hey, others appear to have trouble even making a seat tube in a situation that doesn't need major design changes or weight savings. I understand issues when they come up from SpaceX, of a rocket blowing up years ago because the forces were more than known on carbon fiber. But a seat tube on a stationary bike! Wow! I still have some magnesium frame and possibly hinge parts from an old Duo, in the "fun to burn or make thermite" stash. And that was like a decade after the first Macintosh Portable. It really comes down to the user experience and wants, along with the durability (and other characteristics) of the 3rd party product, this time a flexible screen.
|
|