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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 10, 2013 19:00:27 GMT -8
As a "top channel", interesting and potentially depressing. I'm nervously comparing the current action with the May 6-13 or whatever top/cascade. Multiple ways to look at it, but one heuristic I'm thinking about is AAPL holding 450 (maybe high 440s, since targets vacillate between on-the-nose and ranges without warning), otherwise the trend is heavily in favor of micro bearish (at which point I'd consider quick-trading puts). Mav, concur. Bulls need to hold 448-450 area, or we enter a potential cascade zone. I remember that last time, I expected support to hold at that trendline, and it didn't. At the time, I was scaling into longs, all "woo-hoo, the downtrend is over," and did not consider shorts (for aforementioned reason), and it was quite scary toward the end. The mid-channel is especially treacherous because it always feels "too late" for shorts and too scary for more longs if you've already been scaling in. Never really know for sure if it's mere retrace or reversal. Of course, the smart thing to do is avoid trading the mid-channel entirely. I'm rarely that smart, but it's a good goal. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 10, 2013 19:07:17 GMT -8
The news heading into Monday will be an important micro make-or-break point. I'll probably scale in a bit with a trade anyway, but not with any all-or-nothing stuff.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 12, 2013 13:45:10 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 2H CHART: Trendlines
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 3, 2013 7:38:51 GMT -8
Classic Gap action this morning. Gap open up 1.5% with another 1% up in the first 30 minutes, 2 hours in and there is the pull back to the Gap up opening price. Now's the test, Gap n' Go, or Gap n' Crap? I'm looking for consolidation this until this afternoon with resolution happening in the last 2 hours of trading. If the Gap holds, I'm looking for a push up this afternoon.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 3, 2013 12:09:18 GMT -8
Lost the Gap. Barely closed positive. Looking weak. Back to resumption of monitoring for optimal entry points. 470-475 area would be juicy....
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 3, 2013 12:34:31 GMT -8
icam, excellent traders' mindset / thought process -- good job!!
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 3, 2013 13:23:13 GMT -8
Blind squirrel's find the occasional acorn too....
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 4, 2013 7:37:59 GMT -8
2 Gap open days in a row. Now to wait til this afternoon to see if this one is going to Go or Crap....I'm not presuming either action, which is how I'd navigate this in my past. Price will be my north star.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 4, 2013 12:48:00 GMT -8
Good job, icam!! Looks like Gap n' Nap today...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 4, 2013 13:28:07 GMT -8
Gap and...Nap?
Sure, it's not a rocket ship, but bears had trouble with the exit doors today.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 4, 2013 14:14:31 GMT -8
You never taught me about the Nap. Wasn't sure what to do....So, since the Gap held, I figured that was bullish and opened a couple small BCS's to begin establishing ST positions...with tight stops.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 13, 2013 9:16:45 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 1-MIN CHART: Trendlines
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 13, 2013 14:15:49 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 1H CHART: Trendlines I would *like* the green line to hold for a bigger bounce. We have a boatload of positive divergence. But that can last a while with an especially strong trend -- and a 25-point drop probably fits that description. So let's see...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 13, 2013 14:57:59 GMT -8
Hmm. Scary, but plausible descending channel. More like a downtrend channel though. Will have to look at this over the weekend.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2013 16:40:51 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART: Potential IHS
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Post by macziggy on Sept 19, 2013 22:05:52 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART: Potential IHS Looks quite promising because you know the EOs will pull us down somewhere around 465 in this quad witching event. I'd be surprised if it was lower but they can always do that too---anybody want 550-555?. They can take you there! Wonderful game we are all involved in! Pin the Tail on the Donkey!! Always F.u.n.! That's why I always sleep late on Quad Witchings! Better for the soul!! Stumble out of bed and every things done. Give me my money!
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Post by rickag on Sept 20, 2013 9:36:25 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART: Potential IHS Kind of a pointy head. For fans of Harry Nilsson, this head surely doesn't resemble OblioI know, very obscure humor.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2013 14:13:46 GMT -8
I remain cautiously optimistic for now. At some point AAPL needs to break out rather than keep drifting in a full flag that never triggers, but still looking fine aside from that cascade.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2013 14:17:52 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: Trendlines
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2013 13:03:00 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 15 MIN CHART: Trendlines and potential gap-up fractal
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Post by macziggy on Oct 11, 2013 10:24:34 GMT -8
The 15-minute chart has formed the PERFECT cup-and-handle with a target price of 506.
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Post by mace on Oct 11, 2013 10:30:36 GMT -8
The 15-minute chart has formed the PERFECT cup-and-handle with a target price of 506. When you drew it this way, the depth is longer than the width. Cup in TA means coffee cup i.e. width should be longer than the depth.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 11, 2013 10:36:51 GMT -8
So, does that invalidate it? This is just a WAG anyway.
Mace, thanks for all your work.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 11, 2013 10:42:56 GMT -8
I just don't understand cup-and-handles, myself. I can't "see" that formation well at all.
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Post by mace on Oct 11, 2013 11:14:17 GMT -8
Cut n paste from EW thread:
From Oct 9 to now, could be a zigzag with wave a from $478.28 to $492.38, length = $14.1. Wave b from $492.38 to $485.17. Now in wave c. Targets of wave c would be:
0.618 of a = $493.88 (HoD so far is $493.82, watch out) 1.000 of a = $499.27 1.618 of a = $507.98
If higher than $507.98, congras, is an impulse, minimum high would be $515.19.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2013 13:21:34 GMT -8
I just don't understand cup-and-handles, myself. I can't "see" that formation well at all. +1 I've tried and tried, but this one just doesn't stick in my head. I can't identify them at all. Someone has to point them out to me.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2013 13:23:15 GMT -8
macZiggy, we can give that thing our own name! Hey, I made up "smooshie" as a catch-all for those triangle/pennant/wedges I can never keep straight! ;D
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Post by macziggy on Oct 11, 2013 16:18:36 GMT -8
macZiggy, we can give that thing our own name! Hey, I made up "smooshie" as a catch-all for those triangle/pennant/wedges I can never keep straight! ;D HaHa! You are sooo funny! Nice! I see cup-and-handles everywhere. I need more coffee obviously!! (And, I don't drink coffee....)
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2013 15:33:58 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 15:36:33 GMT -8
Hmm. That 2/3 of a H&S I saw on the hourly looks like a mini H&S (within a potentially forming H&S) on the 30-min. From beginning of Dec. 3.
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