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Post by wheeles on Nov 9, 2012 11:14:38 GMT -8
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a run at 530 into the close. The first decent up move of any recovery is followed by a very stinky retracement where you feel like someone just shot your dog.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 9, 2012 11:16:46 GMT -8
I wish it wouldn't be under the cloud of uncertainty though. Technicals are easier to follow, it seems, on days where news doesn't predominate as much.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 9, 2012 11:17:50 GMT -8
Right now though, AAPL needs to break 545 in order to retrace that ugly, and so far it hasn't.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 12, 2012 13:09:23 GMT -8
I honestly think we are going to see the price hit either the 4H lower Bollinger or the daily lower Bollinger (or both) before AAPL makes a big move higher. That would tie in with talk of 525 and Plato's talk of 522. Things just seem to be shaping up that way.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 13:16:58 GMT -8
I honestly think we are going to see the price hit either the 4H lower Bollinger or the daily lower Bollinger (or both) before AAPL makes a big move higher. That would tie in with talk of 525 and Plato's talk of 522. Things just seem to be shaping up that way. There's the SMA-50 weekly theme though. I've never seen a "quick" resolution of an SMA-50 weekly failure as far back as I can look. Seems the "only hope" is for AAPL to take back the SMA-50 "this week", but I'm skeptical. Not many days left in the week for AAPL to have two consecutive up days to jumpstart that process.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 12, 2012 13:23:11 GMT -8
I see AAPL working through a bottoming pattern. Having moved outside the daily Bollinger, it's likely to test it from the inside before going back up. That's just how AAPL tends to move. You see the same thing across all timeframes.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 12, 2012 13:25:10 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 13:26:38 GMT -8
But from what point did the pattern start? And what about the 522/516 target?
I'd love nothing more than the SMA-50 weekly failure to be the ultimate bear fake-out (where the slingshot was almost ready to go at the time right about when AAPL broke through the SMA-50 weekly). But there's no precedent I can find for that...unless AAPL can dip to 516ish and rocket back to the high 550s by Friday, maybe.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 13:27:58 GMT -8
iPad, that reminds me of that \/\/\ question I had this weekend... Hey iPad, what's with the five-segment red \/\/\ pattern thingy? EW I'm sure, but is it "suggesting" that this could be the final downwave of what I guess you could call a violent consolidation trend? Also, wondering why that pattern isn't traced out from April-September 2010 on your weekly chart.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 12, 2012 13:36:15 GMT -8
Don't buy it myself. He's using sketchy Bollingers of 21 periods too.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 12, 2012 14:36:41 GMT -8
I'll be back to this thread when less brain-fried...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 15:13:37 GMT -8
Need to recalibrate. Are dividends to be adjusted from pre-divvy highs or are they already priced in?
In other words, is 644 still 644? Or should it be 638ish?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 12, 2012 16:44:06 GMT -8
Need to recalibrate. Are dividends to be adjusted from pre-divvy highs or are they already priced in? In other words, is 644 still 644? Or should it be 638ish? Stock charts show the April high as 638. In other words, 644 never happened. Crooks I tell ya.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 17:06:01 GMT -8
Depends on which chart I guess. I'll have to check freestockcharts...I don't _think_ they div-adjust over there for the intraday highs and lows.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 3:11:06 GMT -8
This is my thinking right now (and has been since the weekend). Hit that, then I'll be starting to think about the orange line on the left hand chart and the red line on the right hand chart.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 13, 2012 6:11:34 GMT -8
This is my thinking right now (and has been since the weekend). Hit that, then I'll be starting to think about the orange line on the left hand chart and the red line on the right hand chart. Wheeles, that would mean putting in a new low, dang, why do we have to do that?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 6:29:09 GMT -8
Wheeles, that would mean putting in a new low, dang, why do we have to do that? It's not about putting in a new low, but testing the inside of a band.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 13, 2012 6:37:30 GMT -8
Wheeles, that would mean putting in a new low, dang, why do we have to do that? It's not about putting in a new low, but testing the inside of a band. What is plan B?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 7:07:07 GMT -8
It's not about putting in a new low, but testing the inside of a band. What is plan B? Plan B would be a break out of some kind, but that's most likely to happen off the back of some market moving news.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 7:42:39 GMT -8
We just stopped climbing at the 4H middle Bollinger. That makes me even more inclined to think we are going to hit the 4H lower Bollinger, but that will be the low prior to a decent run higher.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 7:44:36 GMT -8
We just stopped climbing at the 4H middle Bollinger. That makes me even more inclined to think we are going to hit the 4H lower Bollinger, but that will be the low prior to a decent run higher. and where is that lower Bollinger Band? approximately?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 13, 2012 8:07:24 GMT -8
We just stopped climbing at the 4H middle Bollinger. That makes me even more inclined to think we are going to hit the 4H lower Bollinger, but that will be the low prior to a decent run higher. and where is that lower Bollinger Band? approximately? As of typing 531.41, but as the price gets nearer, that value will get lower. It could drop past that if there are a lot of stops below the prior low. I don't mean to be the prophet of doom or anything, but AAPL is quite mechanical in the way it trades when news or analyst commentary is absent, and this is a pattern that does tend to repeat a lot. It is possible that AAPL goes sideways for a while and that line climbs higher, but it is a 4H line, so it will take a day or two to climb to the price where AAPL is now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 10:50:42 GMT -8
The 5-day chart looks different than any other 5-day slice in the past month. But what does it _mean_?
Do shorter-term rounding bottom patterns have any weight?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 14, 2012 11:19:53 GMT -8
This is a 4H chart. A clear pennant continuation pattern has formed.
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 11:32:48 GMT -8
This is a 4H chart. A clear pennant continuation pattern has formed. Some resolution within a few trading days, then. Certainly feels that way with price action as muted as it suddenly is.
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Post by rickag on Nov 14, 2012 11:33:04 GMT -8
This is a 4H chart. A clear pennant continuation pattern has formed. Looks like a bearish pennant.
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 11:34:52 GMT -8
Well, it'd always look like a bearish pennant if a stock slowed its slide during a downtrend.
Doesn't make it inevitable, it makes it worth following closely.
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Post by rickag on Nov 14, 2012 11:40:50 GMT -8
Well, it'd always look like a bearish pennant if a stock slowed its slide during a downtrend. Doesn't make it inevitable, it makes it worth following closely. Agreed, I'm just going by the definitions of bearish and bullish pennants. I would just like AAPL to trade on fundamentals, I know wishful thinking.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 14, 2012 11:41:29 GMT -8
Well, it'd always look like a bearish pennant if a stock slowed its slide during a downtrend. Doesn't make it inevitable, it makes it worth following closely. It is what it is: a pennant. Most of the time they are continuation patterns. Of course, there are the occasional times when they break to the upside. The crafty bit of HFT boosting on Monday turned a quick bounce and potential drop into this pattern, so there's always the chance that someone manipulates it into an upside breakout. EDIT: I just checked, and on the 4H chart, the Bollingers have moved inside the Keltner Channel (not shown on my chart) which indicates a Bollinger Squeeze. These are usually followed by outsized moves in one direction.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 12:02:47 GMT -8
Pennant or doorstop? Hmm..
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