Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2023 1:14:37 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2023 1:20:11 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jul 4, 2023 3:42:39 GMT -8
Is "we stole it first" a legitimate defense?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2023 5:20:12 GMT -8
Is "we stole it first" a legitimate defense? Well, it's worked in the past.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Jul 4, 2023 7:20:40 GMT -8
and that's why the markets are closed. Remember it's all fun and games until someone loses an eye..
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 4, 2023 8:58:24 GMT -8
There's an article on the stock app from Fortune, saying that AAPL isn't a good investment from here due to the PE being around 32, much higher than the pre-pandemic average over some timeframe going back to 2009 that he picked. The article did a decent job with the math, if you liked the timeframe he picked, felt that it was representative of where the PE likely should be, and didn't feel that there were changes in the company that would merit a different baseline. And it also didn't compare the PE to any of the competition, such as MSFT that is currently at 36. The P/E is a strange thing. It is not a constant across different fields, and is affected by perceived stability. Gregg liked to call it the Investor Sentiment Multiplier, as it really was a voting machine that was finicky on investors as a whole, with a huge difference in value from the crash time lows to the bubbly tops. With AAPL there are many different timeframes to look at. Here's a chart of the last 18 years, stopping there to weed out some of the very low or negative earnings years that really screw up P/E comparisons and scale on a graph. 18 year historic p/e chart on BigChartsWith that in mind, a P/E around 30 looks ok. OTOH, our recent year tops were at P/E's of just over 40, and if the stock was there I would consider making some big changes, selling shares or writing calls on at least half of my holdings. Instead I had an open order dating back to WWDC, that I had revised upwards a couple times, to sell a small portion to help lower the amount we are borrowing. We were on a family vacation in Canada for 2 weeks and I didn't think much about it. It turns out it went through in the last few minutes of trading on Friday when we were at the Niagara Falls, at a couple pennies shy of $194. It wasn't a huge amount, but it more than paid for the trip. There's a chance that this was a relative top. But my guess is that if there isn't a huge market change, that AAPL will be higher with a run-up pre earnings, and/or a run-up pre iPhone announcement. And then there's always the change that earnings or guidance amaze people. This doesn't seem like the timeframe for that, but if that sort of feeling is shared by many then it would just make it even more surprising. Happy 4th of July!
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Post by duckpins on Jul 4, 2023 10:04:27 GMT -8
Just saw Sony is the problem. Can't make enough OLED screens for the ski goggles. They say they can't make more than 900,000 a year. Always liked OLED the stock. Maybe we need Zenith and Westinghouse to make screens again?
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Post by Lstream on Jul 4, 2023 17:43:42 GMT -8
Just saw Sony is the problem. Can't make enough OLED screens for the ski goggles. They say they can't make more than 900,000 a year. Always liked OLED the stock. Maybe we need Zenith and Westinghouse to make screens again? CRT’s strapped to your head might not cut it.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 5, 2023 5:45:36 GMT -8
Just saw Sony is the problem. Can't make enough OLED screens for the ski goggles. They say they can't make more than 900,000 a year. Always liked OLED the stock. Maybe we need Zenith and Westinghouse to make screens again? CRT’s strapped to your head might not cut it. It's a workout at the same time. Fill your rings!
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